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SOL is trading near $185 and is in a fierce battle around the key position of the 200-day exponential moving average. Yesterday’s opinion verification: The $175 support highlighted in the early stage has become the market consensus. The current price is testing the 200-day moving average at $185, and all eyes are focused on the $175 lifeline. The $195-$200 resistance area pointed out is absolutely correct and has been proven to have strong selling pressure many times. In-depth technical analysis: The current technical structure presents a bearish pattern. The MACD indicator has turned negative, confirming downward momentum. The RSI is located near 46, indicating that the market has not yet entered an oversold state, which means there is still room for the downside. Key support moves down to the $175-170 range, below which could open deeper losses to the $126-95 area. On-chain data sends a clear warning. The number of active addresses on the Solana network has dropped by approximately 55% from the peak in May, and futures open interest has dropped significantly by 42%, indicating that market participation and speculation enthusiasm have cooled significantly. News long and short game: Potential benefits come from rumors about the Hong Kong SOL spot ETF, but this news has not yet been officially confirmed. If true, it may bring huge new funds to SOL. Conclusive negative news includes the fact that the U.S. SEC has postponed the Solana spot ETF decision, which directly affects short-term market sentiment. On-chain fundamental data shows that network activity and transaction demand are weakening, forming the core pressure on current prices. Operation strategy suggestions: For short-term trading, you can consider shorting on rallies in the resistance area of 190-195 US dollars, with a strict stop loss above US$200. Only when there is a clear signal of stabilization at the support level of $175, the position is light and the stop loss is set below $170. Medium and long-term investments should wait patiently for support at $175 and verification of ETF news. If it falls to the $165-175 area, you can start building positions in batches. If it falls below $165, the plan will be suspended. The initial position should be controlled within 10% of the total funds to avoid leverage operations. Summary and outlook: SOL is at a critical crossroads. The technical outlook is bearish in the short term and the on-chain data is weak, but potential ETF benefits constitute a major variable. The support effect of $175 and the authenticity of ETF news will become the winner and loser in determining the direction of the market outlook. Key decision-making points include keeping an eye on support at $175, as an effective break below could trigger a deep correction. At the same time, the ETF news needs to be verified. If the Hong Kong SOL ETF is approved, it may completely change market sentiment. The above analysis is based on public market data and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable. Be safe and secure with more real-time guidance ⬇️⬇️⬇️  |
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