"The long and short battle at 73,000: BTC is ready to go, can ETH keep up?" 》
Introduction: The market has once again reached a critical decision point! BTC has repeatedly fluctuated in front of $73,000. Is it accumulating a breakthrough to open a new chapter, or is the high level of weakness triggering a deep correction? And can ETH, which is weakly linked, seize this key opportunity? This article will peel off the details for you and provide you with the clearest trading map today.
1. Bitcoin (BTC): Sideways means strong, and breakthrough is just a step away
Core point of view: After reaching a new all-time high, BTC did not choose to directly accelerate to the top, but instead built a strong consolidation platform at the current high level. This trend digested the early profits and laid a solid foundation for the next wave of gains.
Technical insights:
Daily level: The price is running close to the upper Bollinger Band. Although the MACD indicator shows signs of adhesion at high levels, DIF and DEA are both in strong areas above the zero axis, and the overall trend has not changed.
4-hour level: The key point to watch is the pressure in the $71,500-$71,800 range. This is the supply area formed by the accumulation of early small highs. A move above this area on heavy volume would completely open the way to $73,800 and even $75,000.
Open interest (OI): The funding rate of the perpetual contract remains positive but not excessively fanatical, indicating that the bullish sentiment in the market is stable and the leverage risk is controllable.
Today’s key points:
Resistance level: 71,500美元 -> 73,800美元(Historically high)
Core support level: 68,200美元(The watershed between long and short days) -> 65,000美元(trend lifeline)
Operation strategy:
Radical: Available at68,500-69,000The range is light and the position is long, and the stop loss is set at67,800Below, look at the goals in order71,500、73,000。
Stable ones: Wait for the price to break through with heavy volume and stand firm.71,500Then follow the trend to catch up, or fall back to65,000-66,000The core support area is then laid out in batches.
2. Ethereum (ETH): weak linkage, urgent need for opportunities to make up for gains
Core view: The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to be under pressure, indicating that the focus of funds is still on BTC. ETH is currently in a state of rising but stagflation, and it needs its own strong independent benefits to break the deadlock.
Technical insights:
Key resistance: $3,680 - $3,720 is the "ceiling" that ETH has been unable to overcome in the near future. Many upward moves have been blocked here and fell back.
Lower support: $3,450 is the position that must be held today. It brings together the 50-day moving average and the short-term upward trend line. A loss here would push the price down to the strong support zone of $3,300-$3,350.
Market sentiment: Compared with the strength of BTC, the market has a stronger wait-and-see sentiment towards ETH. It is necessary to pay attention to its ecological development (such as Layer 2 progress, DeFi lock-up volume) and other fundamental news to look for breaking signals.
Today’s key points:
Resistance level: 3,680美元 -> 3,850美元
Core support level: 3,450美元 -> 3,350美元
Operation strategy:
Radical: In3,450-3,480Long order in range layout, stop loss3,420,Target3,650。
Steady people: Focus on two signals: First, the volume breaks through $3,680 and then pursue the long position.； The second is to fall back to 3,350Medium and long-term layout after stabilizing nearby.
3. Comprehensive Outlook and Risk Management
Today’s market drivers:
Macro level: Pay close attention to the relevant economic data in the United States in the evening. Any disturbance in interest rate policy may trigger severe short-term market fluctuations.
Funding level: The net inflow/outflow of spot ETFs is the most direct indicator of the attitude of big funds.
Advice to all traders:
In the current high and volatile market, "direction" is more important than "position". Don't be obsessed with buying at the lowest point, but wait for the market to choose its own direction before decisively following it. Strictly control positions and be sure to set stop losses. The market never lacks opportunities, and survival is the first priority.
Interactive topic: Do you think BTC can successfully stand at 73,000 this week? Can ETH usher in a compensatory increase storm? Feel free to share your insights in the comment area!
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