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I believe that many friends, like me, have been dizzy by the fluctuations in the currency circle these days - one second I was hoping that the Fed's interest rate cut would drive a surge in ETH, and the next second I was dragged into a "plummet shock" by the shock of US stocks. A single-day drop of 20% and a liquidation of US$19.1 billion really poured cold water on the market. But despite the panic, we have to let the data speak: Is this round of adjustment a trap or an opportunity? What’s the next trend of ETH? Let’s first break down the most critical macro news at the moment. The Federal Reserve policy that everyone is most concerned about has a clear signal: as of October 22, CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in October is as high as 98.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut in December is close to 99%. This means that the general direction of loose market liquidity has not changed, and liquidity is precisely one of the core driving forces of crypto assets. Looking at the disturbances on the trade front, the negative consequences of the U.S.'s previous threat to impose 100% tariffs have been gradually digested. Not only did it quickly withdraw its position, but it also revealed that China and the United States will restart talks. This softening of attitude directly drove the three major U.S. stock indexes to rise by more than 1.5% in a single day, and the risk aversion sentiment in risk assets is ebbing. The stabilization of US stocks is particularly critical - on October 20, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both rose by more than 1%, and technology stocks led the rise, which has begun to convey confidence to the currency circle. Looking at the core data on the chain that determines short-term trends, the true sentiment of the market is hidden here. On the one hand, the "cleaning effect" under extreme market conditions has already emerged: 1.62 million investors liquidated their positions in the past 24 hours, 87% of which were long orders. A large number of excessively leveraged chips were cleared, which in turn reduced the selling pressure for subsequent declines. What deserves more attention is the movement of whales: Although some whales have closed their positions to avoid risks, the top 100 whale addresses have accumulated a cumulative increase of 350,000 ETH, and another mysterious whale has increased its long positions to US$250 million, apparently taking the opportunity to collect chips. The derivatives market has also released positive signals: the ETH financing interest rate has turned from positive to negative to -0.019%, which means that shorts need to pay longs, which is often a precursor to a reversal after the market is overly bearish. The technical signals are equally clear. On the daily chart, ETH has seen a "hidden bullish divergence". The price hit a low but the RSI indicator did not reach a new low simultaneously. After this pattern appeared in August-September this year, it once drove ETH to rise by nearly 25% in just a few days. From the support level, the $3580-3630 range and $3700 are the current key lines of defense. As long as it can be stabilized here, market sentiment is expected to gradually recover. ； The core resistance level above is at $4,800. If it can break through with heavy volume, the medium-term bullish trend will be confirmed. More importantly, Ethereum's own fundamentals continue to strengthen: the Fusaka upgrade has entered the advanced testing stage, and the mainnet is expected to be deployed in early December. By then, the block gas limit will be tripled, transaction costs will be further reduced, and long-term value support will become increasingly solid. Taken together, ETH will still be in a volatile period of emotional recovery in the short term. The support range of 3580-3700 US dollars is the focus of observation. If it can stand firm, the rebound will most likely hit the 3900-4000 US dollars mark.； But if there is another black swan on the macro level, the possibility of a second bottom cannot be ruled out. For ordinary investors, it is more suitable to "lay out and control positions in batches" at the moment, such as gradually building positions at key points such as 3,700 and 3,500 US dollars, while keeping an eye on two signals: one is the implementation of the interest rate cut at the Fed's October 28-29 meeting, and the other is whether ETH can regain its position above 4,000 US dollars with the increase in trading volume. Finally, we must remind you: the nature of crypto market volatility has not changed, and high leverage is still a fatal trap. The recent case of a giant whale losing 252% due to 40 times leverage is a lesson.  |
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