2025.10.25 Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) market analysis report

Vitalik 2025-10-25 14:15 75655人围观 ETH

- A strategy guide based on current market dynamics and data support [Current market overview] Bitcoin (BTC): On-chain data: Exchange net outflow of 18,000 BTC (7 daily accumulation), the market hoarding sentiment has increased significantly (data source

—— Strategy guide based on current market dynamics and supported by data

[Quick overview of current market conditions]

Bitcoin (BTC):

On-chain data: There was a net outflow of 18,000 BTC from the exchange (accumulated in 7 days), and the market hoarding sentiment increased significantly (data source: Glassnode).
Institutional trends: CME Bitcoin futures open interest exceeded $15 billion, a record high, with long orders accounting for 70%.
Technical signals: EMA50 and EMA200 are golden crosses, the MACD histogram continues to enlarge, and bulls have strong momentum.

Current price: $111,219 (+3.5% 24H)
24H range: $108,500 - $112,800
Key data:

Ethereum (ETH):

Staking growth: The pledged amount of ETH 2.0 exceeded 35 million, and the annualized rate of return stabilized at 5.2% (Etherscan).
Giant whale activity: 15 whale addresses increased their holdings of 800,000 ETH in a single day, with an average cost of $3,850 (Santiment).
On-chain costs: Gas fees dropped to 8 Gwei, and DEX transaction volume increased by 50% month-on-month.

Current price: $3,920 (+2.8% 24H)
24H range: $3,850 - $3,980
Key data:

【Technical Analysis】

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Trend judgment:

Key verification: UTXO data shows that $108,000-$110,000 is the strong position cost area.

Daily level: EMA50 and EMA200 are golden crosses, MACD turns red, and bulls have the upper hand.
4-hour level: RSI (68) is close to overbought, but there is no divergence, and there is still room for upside in the short term.

Key points:

Support level: $108,500 (EMA50 + on-chain intensive area) → **If it falls below, $106,000** will be seen.
Resistance level: $112,800 (previous high) → **If it breaks through, the target is $115,000 (psychological threshold)**.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

Trend judgment:

On-chain verification: The new pledge amount of ETH 2.0 has exceeded 150,000 ETH for 7 consecutive days.

Daily level: Breaking through the downward trend line, the volume can increase moderately, and it needs to stand firm at $3,950 to confirm the trend.
4-hour level: The Bollinger Bands narrowed to the historical volatility of 6%, KDJ golden cross, looking at the short-term breakthrough of $3,950.

Key points:

Support level: $3,850 (whale cost + liquidation intensive area) → **If it falls below, look to $3,750**.
Resistance level: $3,950 (psychological threshold) → **If it breaks through, the target is $4,100 (the biggest pain point for options)**.

【Operation suggestions】

Bitcoin (BTC)

Short-term strategy (based on 4-hour signals):

Entry point: $110,000-$110,500 (retracement of EMA50 + on-chain support).
Take profit point: $112,800 (first target) → $115,000 (second target).
Stop loss: $108,000 (below EMA50).

Medium and long-term strategy (based on institutional positions):

Adding point: break through $112,800 and then chase up to $115,000.
Exit signal: The daily closing price falls below $106,000.

Ethereum (ETH)

Short-term strategy (based on volume-price divergence):

Entry point: $3,880 - $3,900 (back to EMA20 + whale cost zone).
Take profit point: $3,950 (first target) → $4,100 (second target).
Stop loss point: $3,800 (falling below the on-chain liquidation intensive area).

Medium and long-term strategy (based on pledge data):

Adding point: After heavy volume breaks through $3,950, it will look at $4,100.
Exit signal: Unable to stabilize at $3,900 for 3 consecutive days.

[Summary and Outlook]

Bitcoin:

Short term: Institutional funds and on-chain data support the price, but it needs to break through $112,800 to open up the upside.
Medium and long term: If it stands at $108,000, the Q2 target of 2024 is $120,000 (refer to the halving cycle rule).

Ethereum:

Short term: Staking growth and low gas fees are good, but the volume needs to exceed $3,950 to activate trend funds.
Medium and long-term: The ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounds to above 0.035, which will drive the altcoin market.

Risk warning

Macro risk: Before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, fluctuations in market interest rate cut expectations may cause shocks.
Changes on the chain: The net outflow of Bitcoin miner addresses increased to 8,000 BTC in the 7th day (potential selling pressure).

(The data in this article are current and the analysis is based on on-chain data and derivatives signals and does not constitute investment advice. )

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There are two ways to do transactions:

The first is on the left side, buying the bottom and finding the top: drawing support and pressure, and drawing trend lines. The advantage is that the winning rate is higher. As long as the stop loss is not too narrow, the winning rate is at least 60%, and the compound interest returns are very scary. Like many experts who only deal with BTC, ETH, and SOL, most of them are on the left side.

The second is on the right side, chasing the rise and killing the fall: chasing the breakthrough, a 30% winning rate is pretty good. The advantage is that as long as there is a big market, you can make a lot of money in one wave. For example, K God’s wave of tens of thousands of dollars rolled up to 2 million dollars, retired Langlang, and my good brothers Shuishui and Taozi. I estimate that they will all be able to get big A8 or small A9 within a year or two.

Depending on your different personalities, you can only choose one thing to do. If you can't even do one well, don't think you can do both well at the same time. These are two relatively antagonistic values that require different dispositions. If you are used to doing oscillations on the left side, if you are arrogant and enlarge your position, you will be taken away by a wave of trending market. All support pressures will be broken one day. Those who follow the trend on the right side will be beaten repeatedly during the shock period until one day they go completely crazy. Frequent short-term orders will be worn out by handling fees and slippage.

What kind of personality makes what kind of trading mode, but whether to choose the left side or the right side is something that must be constantly considered at the beginning of the trading journey.

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This article is intended to convey more market information and does not constitute any investment advice. The article only represents the author's opinion. Investment is risky, so you need to be cautious when entering the market and plan your investment reasonably!

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