1. Real-time quotes and market dynamics
As of 12:00 on October 25, 2025, the price of Ethereum (ETH) was US$3,934.50, up 1.78% in 24 hours, with a market value of US$474.08 billion, firmly ranking second in the cryptocurrency market. The day's highest hit $4,026.39, and the lowest hit $3,866.43. The volatility reached 4.14%, indicating fierce competition between bulls and shorts. On-chain data shows that the net outflow of ETH from exchanges in the past 24 hours reached 80,763 pieces (approximately US$268 million), a five-month high, indicating that investors' long-term holding willingness has increased and market selling pressure has eased. At the same time, the supply of Ethereum stablecoins exceeded US$180 billion, a record high, reflecting the continued improvement in ecological activity and capital inflows on the chain.
2. Technical Analysis: Direction Decision under Convergent Structure
Looking at the 4-hour K-line, ETH is currently in a convergent triangle shape, with the high gradually moving down to $4,083 and the low moving up to $3,746. The market is waiting for a directional breakthrough. Technical indicators show:
- The MACD histogram continues to be positive but the momentum is weakening, indicating that the bulls still have the upper hand, but the rise has slowed down.
- The RSI fluctuates around 60, not entering the overbought zone, and the short-term correction pressure is limited.
- The support level is concentrated at $3,746-3,755 (the 200-day moving average coincides with the previous low). If it falls below this area, it may drop to $3,470.
- The resistance level is US$4,013-4,083 (50-day moving average and previous high), and it is expected to hit US$4,254 after breaking through.
It is worth noting that trading volume has continued to shrink recently, and the volume and capacity are insufficient when prices rise, which may restrict the height of the rebound. If it fails to effectively break through the resistance of $4,013 during the weekend, the volatile pattern may continue in the short term.
3. Driving factors and market logic
Policy and Institutional Trends The US "GENIUS Act" has entered the final review stage, clarifying the regulatory framework for stablecoins for the first time. As the carrier chain for 70% of compliant stablecoins, Ethereum is expected to be the biggest beneficiary. At the same time, JPMorgan Chase announced that it will allow institutional customers to use ETH as loan collateral, further promoting the entry of mainstream funds. As of October 20, Ethereum ETF holdings reached 6.89 million, accounting for 5.7% of the circulating supply, indicating strong long-term allocation demand from institutions.
Technology Upgrade and Ecological Development Ethereum Pectra upgrade has entered the testing phase. Core improvements include account abstraction (EIP-7702) and the increase of the validator pledge limit to 2,048 ETH, attracting institutions to participate in the pledge economy. In addition, the Fusaka upgrade planned to be launched on December 3 will significantly increase the block gas limit to 60 million, optimize Layer 2 scalability, and inject new momentum into the DeFi and NFT ecosystem.
Risk warning
- Regulatory uncertainty: If the US SEC qualifies ETH as a security, it may trigger a short-term 20%-30% correction.
- Technical execution risk: Delays or vulnerabilities in Pectra and Fusaka upgrades may affect market confidence.
- Macro liquidity: If the Federal Reserve's November interest rate decision maintains high interest rates, it may suppress the valuation of risky assets.
4. Operation strategies and point recommendations
Short term traders:
- Try to buy near the support level: buy in the range of 3,746-3,755 US dollars, with a stop loss of 3,700 US dollars and a target of 4,013 US dollars.
- Test short near the resistance level: If the price rebounds to $4,013-4,083 and is blocked, you can go short with a stop loss of $4,100 and a target of $3,800.
Medium and long-term investors:
- Build positions in batches: gradually deploy in the range of US$3,700-3,800, control the position to 20%-30% of the total funds, and hold it for a long time to capture the dividends of technological upgrades and institutional capital inflows.
- Staking income: Participating in ETH staking through platforms such as Lido, the current annualized rate of return is about 4%, which can hedge the risk of short-term price fluctuations.
5. Summary
Ethereum is currently at a key node in the long-short game, supported by the technical convergence structure and on-chain capital inflows, while favorable policies and institutional holdings provide long-term momentum. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on the breakthrough direction of the $3,746-4,083 range. In the medium and long term, bargain hunting can be carried out, focusing on the implementation of the Fed's resolution in November and the Fusaka upgrade in December. When market volatility intensifies, strict stop loss and position management are the core of risk control.
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