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From October 20th to 22nd, SOL launched a long-short game in the range of 183-190 US dollars. These three trading days not only exposed the short-term technical stalemate, but also revealed the strategic intention of the in-depth deployment of institutional capital. On the one hand, the giant whale address made a profit by selling HYPE and then switched to SOL. The three major institutions joined forces to promote a US$1 billion acquisition plan. ； On the other hand, the 4.41 million SOL pledged tokens left by FTX are like a hanging sword, and the US spot ETF approval process has entered the final sprint stage. Behind this seemingly calm shock, there is actually an undercurrent. Technical analysis shows that SOL formed a typical contracting triangle pattern in the $183-190 range. On October 20, the price once tested the support level of $181, but was quickly pulled back, showing that the bulls had clear intentions to protect the market at a key position. In the following two days, the price fluctuated repeatedly around $185, with the multi-period moving averages tightly entangled in the range of $185-188, MACD continued to stick together near the zero axis, and RSI was in the neutral zone of 44-50. This technical form shows that the market is brewing a new direction choice: the key resistance level of 195-196 US dollars has become the watershed of recent strength and weakness. This position is superimposed on the upper Bollinger Band and the 4-hour MA25 moving average. If it can be broken through with heavy volume, the upward space will open to the 215-220 US dollars range. ； The core support level of 180-182 US dollars forms a line of defense, which resonates with the previous low. Once it falls, it may trigger the algorithmic closing order to accelerate the decline to the strong support area of 170-175 US dollars. On October 22, SOL showed a bullish engulfing pattern near $183, but the trading volume failed to effectively amplify, making the strength of the rebound questionable. This volume-price divergence implies that the market needs new catalysts in the short term to break the balance.  The news game shows a pattern of long and short interweaving but overall bullishness. The positive factors mainly come from strategic buying at the institutional level. The US$1 billion SOL acquisition plan jointly promoted by Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital and Jump Crypto has entered the execution stage. At the same time, the listed company Forward Industries announced a US$1.6 billion SOL treasury plan, and Nasdaq AI medical company VisionSys also launched a US$2 billion SOL allocation plan. These institutional actions not only lock in circulating chips, but also convey long-term confidence. In terms of ETF approval, spot SOL ETF applications submitted by five institutions including VanEck and Fidelity are in the final review stage of the SEC. The market expects that the probability of approval will exceed 70% before the end of 2025. This expectation is attracting prescient capital deployment. Ecological fundamentals continue to strengthen. The Solana network performs strongly in the three major tracks of DePIN, payment and AI. Visa and PayPal chose Solana as a stablecoin settlement network. AI projects in the ecosystem, such as io.net, have recently completed large-scale financing, further consolidating the activity on the chain. In terms of potential risks, the FTX/Alameda pledge address still has 4.41 million SOL (approximately US$890 million) to be unlocked. The disposal method of these tokens may become a source of short-term selling pressure. In addition, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision is approaching, and expectations of tightening macro liquidity may intensify market volatility.  An early evangelist in the currency circle, facing fans in the bull market, he shared ideas for spot currency accumulation, rollover strategies, and 100-fold currency selection. Ambush potential coins in advance, pay close attention, keep up with my rhythm, and make a lot of money in this bull market! The on-chain data perspective shows that the activities on the SOL chain in the past 72 hours show the characteristics of the quiet deployment of institutional-level funds. On October 20, a whale address made a profit from selling HYPE and converted all 15.68 million U.S. dollars into 81,117 SOLs. During the same period, large-holding addresses (holding more than 100,000 SOLs) made net purchases of 460 million U.S. dollars in the past 72 hours. Their holding costs were mainly concentrated in the range of 217-232 U.S. dollars, indicating that the current price is attractive to institutions. Pledge data confirms long-term confidence. The SOL pledge rate continues to remain at a high level of over 75%, with the monthly increase in institutional pledge volume through protocols such as Marinade Finance reaching 12%. This locking mechanism effectively reduces circulating supply and provides internal support for prices. The network health indicators are outstanding. The number of daily active addresses on the Solana chain is stable at more than 1.2 million. The proportion of DEX transaction volume continues to lead the public chain track. In particular, the on-chain transaction demand brought by DePIN's leading projects Helium and Hivemapper has widened the gap between Solana and other public chains in terms of real application scenarios. Three scenarios are deduced from the future outlook: Under the bull market scenario (40% probability), if SOL exceeds the resistance of $196 and stands above $200, and the SOL ETF is approved in November and is expected to be fulfilled, the price may quickly rise to the $220-230 range. Key monitoring indicators include that the single-day trading volume needs to continue to exceed $2 billion, and the holdings of giant whale addresses will increase by more than 5% month-on-month. ； Under the shock scenario (50% probability), if the price continues to consolidate in the range of 180-195 US dollars, it will wait for new catalytic factors to break the balance. It is necessary to pay attention to the unwinding trend of FTX’s legacy SOL and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s November interest rate decision on macro liquidity. ； Under the defensive scenario (probability 10%), if the heavy volume falls below the $180 support and does not recover for three days, it may drop to the $170-175 area. It is necessary to guard against the risk of resonance between the sudden tightening of macro liquidity and FTX selling pressure.  The trading strategy recommends establishing bottom positions in batches in the range of 180-188 US dollars, and setting the stop loss below 178 US dollars. After breaking through 196 US dollars, you can add positions according to the trend. In terms of position management, single risk exposure should be controlled within 5% of the total funds to avoid high leverage operations. Solana's unique positioning lies in its two-wheel drive of "high-performance underlying chain + consumer-grade application ecosystem". When Bitcoin is regarded as digital gold and Ethereum focuses on the financial bottom layer, SOL is relying on its high-speed and low-fee advantages to establish barriers in high-frequency application scenarios such as payment, gaming and DePIN. As institutions continue to pour in through multiple channels such as ETFs and treasury plans, Solana's competition dimension has gone beyond pure technical indicators to a comprehensive competition of capital, ecology and regulatory recognition. An early evangelist in the currency circle, facing fans in the bull market, he shared ideas for spot currency accumulation, rollover strategies, and 100-fold currency selection. Ambush potential coins in advance, pay close attention, keep up with my rhythm, and make a lot of money in this bull market! 👇 👇 👇  |
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