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 On October 6, the U.S. non-farm employment data for September was released. Data show that the number of employed people increased by 336,000 in September, an increase of 170,000 is expected, and the previous value increased by 187,000. The U.S. unemployment rate in September was 3.8%, which was expected to be 3.7% and the previous value was 3.8%.  While the data greatly exceeded expectations, it also provided favorable conditions for another interest rate hike. According to foreign media sources, the implied yield on the contract linked to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate increased after the data was released, indicating that the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising the benchmark interest rate to a range of 5.50%-5.75% at the December meeting has further increased to close to 50%. At the same time, the Fed swap market is fully pricing in a postponement of the Fed's interest rate cut from July next year to September next year. This shows that the continued high interest rate policy may form long-term constraints on global financial markets in the next year. In fact, Bi Lei Zhen believes that judging from the current situation of the "union movement" in the United States, the specific development of the incident may be much better than the data. This means that interest rate cuts may come sooner. According to news on October 6, according to monitoring by TheDataNerd, the wallet address of Sungao withdrew 20,000 ETH (USD 32.4 million) from Lido Finance and quickly deposited all of it into Binance. According to the news, Justin Sun deposited 5,000 ETH ($9.22 million) into Houbi through this wallet two months ago, and the price of ETH fell by 12% in the following week. As for the 12% drop in ETH described in the news, we analyzed it in an article in mid-August. At that time, it was due to the release of SpaceX's Bitcoin reduction report and market speculation that Elon Musk's Tesla company may have also sold off its Bitcoin holdings, triggering market panic. It had nothing to do with the movement of Sun's wallet. However, it is worth noting that the most recent time that Sun cut a large amount of pledged ETH was on the eve of the verdict of the Ripple case. At that time, it redeemed 30,000 stETH, worth approximately US$55.8 million. Shortly afterwards, Ripple won the case and XRP surged.  Therefore, we have reason to suspect that Sun Ge may be able to "obtain" more case-related information in advance. So when the SEC's "retrial" date for Grayscale GBTC's conversion into spot ETF case is approaching (before October 13), similar operations are repeated, which can't help but make people "daydream". As we all know, the Grayscale GBTC case is one of the factors that has the greatest impact on the approval of the BTC spot ETF application at this stage, and the spot ETF will be the next key "catalyst" to drive up the price of cryptocurrency. On October 4, the judge dismissed the US SEC’s motion to appeal against Ripple’s ruling. So what is the SEC’s chance of winning in Grayscale’s retrial? This is a crucial event for the entire crypto market and may cause large fluctuations. If the SEC abandons the appeal or fails, the SEC will have to reconsider the application to convert Grayscale GBTC into a spot ETF, as well as other related Bitcoin spot ETF applications. What is puzzling is that Sun Gao re-pledged most of the unpledged ETH shortly thereafter, which seemed to indicate that he was not optimistic about the market reaction in this Grayscale case, or that some kind of "agreement" had not been reached. BiLeizhen believes that this may be directly related to the "weak" economic environment. In the past period of time, affected by the breakthrough of long-term U.S. bond interest rates to new highs, the prices of commodities such as gold and crude oil have fallen to varying degrees (crude oil fell by more than 13%). Although cryptocurrencies have generally maintained a strong momentum and "outperformed" during this period, the reason for this situation is entirely due to low enough cryptocurrency trading volumes (the shallower the trading pool, the more likely it is to be affected by "large" transactions). There won't be enough volume to drive further gains in the current environment. The above are all personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice! ! ! Thank you for your attention. If you have different opinions, please feel free to communicate via private message! ! !  |
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