English
10343
|
News: 1. Regulatory policies: dual catalysts under the wave of compliance The US "GENIUS Act" entered the final review stage and became the core policy focus of the day. This bill, known as the "traffic light of the crypto world", clarified the regulatory framework for stablecoins for the first time and established three core principles: issuer qualification threshold, mandatory disclosure of transaction transparency, and cross-chain compliance interface. For ETH, its core position in carrying more than 70% of compliant stablecoin transactions in the entire market makes it the public chain that will potentially benefit the most from the implementation of the bill. After stablecoins are incorporated into the U.S. monetary service system, mainstream currencies such as USDC and USDT may obtain the legal status of "digital dollars", paving the way for the entry of institutional funds, and Ethereum will directly undertake this part of the incremental liquidity. Coupled with the signal that the SEC is speeding up its review of Ethereum spot ETFs, the market generally expects that 2025Q3 will usher in a regulatory bonus release period. But the risks and risks are also outstanding: the issue of ETH's security characterization is still unresolved. Analysts warn that if it is finally characterized as a security, it may trigger a short-term correction of 20%-30%, becoming the "Sword of Damocles" hanging overhead. Judging from tracking indicators, the hearing records of the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee and the changes in the positions of Congressmen Patrick McHenry and Maxine Waters will become key indicators for judging the final shape of the bill. 2. Market dynamics: the game between capital fluctuations and bullish sentiment The market on that day showed the differentiation characteristics of "high emotions and repeated funds". At the price level, ETH reached a stage high of $4683. Technically, it broke through the upper track of the upward channel. MA5, MA20, and MA60 formed a perfect long arrangement. The trading volume amplified simultaneously with the price, showing a healthy "volume and price rise" pattern. In terms of capital flow, the net inflow of the ETH market in the past month reached 805 million U.S. dollars. Within 24 hours, major funds continued to enter the market, with a net inflow of 13.9385 million U.S. dollars, showing the determination of the institution's long-term layout. However, short-term capital fluctuations warrant vigilance. The ETH ETF experienced a massive outflow of US$505 million in four days from the end of September to early October. Although it saw a return of US$338.8 million on October 14, it reflected the cautious adjustment of institutions under macro pressure - factors such as the Trump administration's tariff proposals and the postponement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut are still affecting capital risk appetite. The derivatives market showed extreme optimism: the long-short position ratio reached 37:1.38, and the 24-hour short position liquidation accounted for 81.27%. Although the fear and greed index dropped from 80 to 73, it was still in the "greedy" range. Short-term correction pressure intensified as the leverage level increased. 3. Core conclusions and focus of attention The ETH news on that day showed a pattern of "policy and technology are both good for the bottom, and short-term sentiment is overheated and needs to be digested": the "GENIUS Act" and the accelerated ETF review have opened up long-term compliance space, and the Verkle Trees upgrade has clarified the performance jump path, both of which together form fundamental support.； However, due to the qualitative risks of securities, fluctuations in ETF funds and the high leverage status of derivatives, we need to be wary of short-term corrections catalyzed by news. There are three major signals that can be tracked in the future: 1) The final voting results of the House of Representatives on the "GENIUS Act", especially the stablecoin regulatory details and the qualitative statement of ETH； 2) Verkle Trees mainnet deployment time node confirmation, and Layer2 project adaptation progress ； 3) ETH ETF fund flows and changes in futures funding rates are key indicators for judging the shift in market sentiment. Technical aspect: The ETH two-piece trend made a strong breakthrough over the weekend and directly charged Dayang. On the weekly line, the big yang comes out and engulfs the big yin, forming a strong signal. However, this wave of strong stretching did not break through the suppression of MA5 and MA10. Generally speaking, it is not recommended to chase the rise at a high level before breaking through the moving average suppression this week. The high-altitude thinking should be to reach the key suppression mark. If it cannot break through MA5 and MA10 strongly this week, we will see a technical correction to the weekly mid-track 3900 demand. The daily line stretched out on Sunday and broke through the short-term upward suppression barrier. For the first time, it broke through the 4150 suppression of the MA30 moving average, forming a key support level for today's correction. On the upside, focus on the suppression of the MA60 moving average of 4260, which also coincides with the suppression zone of the 5.10 daily moving average on the weekly chart. In summary, today's operation ideas will not break through the suppression level, and the main idea is to focus on high altitudes. Today's operation idea: Any short stop loss above 4200 is 4290 Ideas for going long should be given in a timely manner based on real-time market conditions |
|
|
|
|
|
