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10.27|BTC/ETH daily market analysis

Vitalik 2025-10-27 14:24 19418人围观 ETH

(Today's market analysis) Today's market analysis2025.10.27 BTC current price: $115,000 Intraday Analysis 1️⃣ Structural Interpretation Bitcoin strongly broke through the $115,000 mark this morning, showing strong upward momentum. This rise is not an iso


(Today’s market analysis)

Today's market analysis

2025.10.27



BTC

Current price: $115,000



Intraday analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation

Bitcoin strongly broke through the $115,000 mark this morning, showing strong upward momentum. This rise is not an isolated incident, and is supported by positive changes in the macro environment. Bitcoin made a strong breakthrough driven by macro favorable conditions, and the short-term structure turned bullish. The next key is to confirm the validity of the breakout and focus on the resistance higher above.

2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics


  • Capital flow (market "blood transfusion" situation): warm winds are blowing frequently at the macro level. The market is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29, which has provided support to the entire risk asset market. At the same time, Sino-US trade negotiations have made progress, and the United States is no longer considering imposing 100% tariffs on China, which has greatly boosted market confidence.

  • On-chain data (trends of big players’ “truck cards”): There is good news on the regulatory front. The advancement of the GENIUS Act in the United States provides regulatory clarity for stablecoins, which accelerates the adoption of blockchain technology by institutions. In addition, Trump’s nomination of pro-encryption Michael Selig as CFTC chairman was also interpreted by the market as a positive policy signal.

  • Exchange dynamics (market "sentiment" thermometer): As prices rise, so does leverage risk. Data shows that if Bitcoin can further exceed $117,000, the accumulated short position liquidation intensity on mainstream exchanges will reach $798 million. This is like a "tinderbox" that, if detonated, could accelerate price increases through forced liquidation (i.e., a "short squeeze"). On the other hand, if the price falls back below $113,000, it could trigger long liquidation of approximately $470 million.


💬Key points: The macro, regulatory and technical aspects resonate and jointly promote the rise of Bitcoin. However, we need to be wary of potential liquidation risks in highly leveraged markets.

3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day

Breakthrough is confirmed and go with the trend. After the price effectively stabilizes at $115,000, the short-term thinking should be to go long on dips while paying close attention to the performance of key resistance levels. Next, we will go long. We will pay attention to whether the price returns in one hour and can go long without breaking. Radical students can go long in the area of ​​113500-112800. The entity breaks out of position and leaves the market. At the upper target level, we currently see a maximum of 122,000, and we can reduce our holdings or leave the market midway.

4️⃣ Risk warning

  1. Risks of changes in macro data: U.S. GDP and core PCE inflation data will also be released this week. If the data results contradict the market's expected dovish (leaning on interest rate cuts) narrative, it could quickly reverse the current optimism and lead to profit taking.

  2. High-leverage liquidation reversal risk: Although the amount of short liquidation above is large, once the rising momentum of the price exhausts and it turns downward to hit the stop loss level of the long position, it will also trigger a chain of long liquidation, leading to a rapid price correction.

  3. “"Buy expectations, sell facts" risk: The market has basically digested the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. We need to be wary of a market reversal in which “all good things turn out to be bad” after the official announcement of the resolution on October 29.



[For reference only, not as investment advice]



ETH

Current price: $4212.23



Intraday analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation

Ethereum performed even stronger today, rising more than Bitcoin during the day and successfully breaking through $4,100. This shows that it not only follows the rise of Bitcoin, but also has its own endogenous motivation. ETH has strongly broken through key psychological price levels and has strong short-term momentum. Its rise is supported by ecological data, but it is also necessary to pay attention to the trend of BTC.

2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics

  • Capital flow: The sector’s capital rotation is obvious. In addition to the rise in ETH itself, other public chain ecosystems are also active. The user activity of Solana and Aptos has increased significantly recently. Among them, the user base of Aptos increased by more than 20% in a week, which shows that funds are not only chasing the leader, but also tapping the high-growth public chain ecology.

  • On-chain data: The blockchain XR asset market shows great potential. Some reports predict that the market size will grow from US$1.6 billion in 2024 to US$2.04 billion in 2025. Many of these blockchain-based immersive experience applications are built on smart contract platforms such as Ethereum, providing imagination space for their long-term ecological value.

  • Exchange news: Decentralized exchanges (DEX) perform brilliantly. Among them, PancakeSwap’s trading volume surged nearly 50% in the past week, setting one of the largest increases among major cryptocurrency platforms. This shows that on-chain transaction activity is very active, providing a basis for the value capture of ETH.


💬Key points: The rise of ETH is due to the market’s overall optimism for the smart contract platform track, as well as the growth of data on specific applications within its ecosystem (such as DeFi, DEX).

3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day

Strong pattern, step back and go long. The trend of ETH is stronger than that of BTC, and the strategy should be more biased towards the long side. Consider $4,100 as a new support base and look for long pullback opportunities. If the price pulls back to the $4040-$4080 area and finds support (signs such as hammers, bullish engulfing, etc.), it can be regarded as an ideal long entry point. Stop loss is set below $4,040. The conservative group pulled back to the one-hour level and is still studying the long trend. It is strictly prohibited to directly chase the price after it has moved away from the support. Since ETH is generally more volatile than BTC, the risk of chasing prices is higher. Waiting patiently for prices to retrace key support levels is a safer strategy.

4️⃣ Risk warning

  1. Public chain competition risks: Competitors such as BNB Chain, Solana, and Aptos are rapidly catching up in terms of user activity and transaction volume. Although this represents the prosperity of the entire industry, it also means a diversion of ETH's ecological status and funds.

  2. Volatility amplification risk: ETH’s intraday volatility is generally greater than that of BTC. At the current high level, the absolute number of points of any pullback is likely to be large, requiring higher position management requirements.

  3. Market Dependence Risk: Despite ETH’s strength, its correlation with BTC remains. If Bitcoin weakens due to macro factors, ETH's upward trend will be severely tested.



[For reference only, not as investment advice]

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Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the personal views of Mr. Fengshen and does not constitute specific operational recommendations. If you operate based on this, you are responsible for your profits and losses. Investments are risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.



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