1. Real-time quotes and market dynamics
As of 12:00 on October 27, 2025, the price of Ethereum (ETH) was US$4,170.35, up 5.32% in 24 hours, with a market value of US$503.354 billion, firmly ranking second in the cryptocurrency market. The day's highest hit $4,225.55, and the lowest hit $3,937.60. The volatility reached 7.3%, indicating fierce competition between long and short parties. On-chain data shows that the net outflow of ETH from exchanges in the past 24 hours reached 68,000 ETH (approximately US$280 million), a five-month high, indicating that investors' long-term holding willingness has increased and market selling pressure has eased. At the same time, the supply of Ethereum stablecoins exceeded US$180 billion, a record high, reflecting the continued improvement in ecological activity and capital inflows on the chain.
2. Technical analysis: shock expectations after breaking through key resistance
Looking at the 4-hour K-line, ETH broke through the key resistance level of $4,080 in early trading on October 27, forming a right shoulder structure of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, and the short-term upward trend was established. Technical indicators show:
- The MACD histogram continues to be positive but the momentum is weakening, indicating that the bulls still have the upper hand, but the rise has slowed down.
- The RSI fluctuates around 65, not entering the overbought area, and the short-term correction pressure is limited.
- Support levels are concentrated at $4,080 (conversion of the former resistance level) and $4,000 (20-day moving average). If it falls below $4,000, it may drop to $3,800.
- Resistance levels are $4,150 (50-day moving average) and $4,225 (day high), with a breakout of $4,254 expected.
It is worth noting that the current trading volume has not been enlarged simultaneously, and the volume and capacity are insufficient when the price rises, which may restrict the height of the rebound. If it fails to effectively stabilize at $4,150 during the weekend, the volatile pattern may continue in the short term.
3. Driving factors and market logic
Policy and Institutional Trends The US "GENIUS Act" has entered the final review stage, clarifying the regulatory framework for stablecoins for the first time. As the carrier chain for 70% of compliant stablecoins, Ethereum is expected to be the biggest beneficiary. At the same time, JPMorgan Chase announced that it will allow institutional customers to use ETH as loan collateral, further promoting the entry of mainstream funds. As of October 27, Ethereum ETF holdings reached 6.92 million, accounting for 5.7% of the circulating supply, indicating strong long-term allocation demand from institutions.
Technology upgrade and ecological development Ethereum Fusaka upgrade has entered the final stage of the test network, and plans to launch the main network upgrade on December 3. Core improvements include increasing the block gas limit to 60 million, optimizing Layer 2 scalability, and injecting new momentum into the DeFi and NFT ecosystem. In addition, Japanese listed company Quantum Solutions increased its holdings of 500.43 ETH that day, bringing its total holdings to 4,366.27, showing traditional capital's recognition of the long-term value of Ethereum.
Risk warning
- Regulatory uncertainty: If the US SEC qualifies ETH as a security, it may trigger a short-term 20%-30% correction.
- Technical Execution Risk: Delays or bugs in Fusaka upgrades may affect market confidence.
- Macro liquidity: If the Federal Reserve's November interest rate decision maintains high interest rates, it may suppress the valuation of risky assets.
- Whales' profit-taking pressure: On-chain data shows that "25x smart money long ETH after the 1011 flash crash" placed 29,700 ETH sell orders in the range of $4,190-5,555.5. If the price hits it, it may trigger selling pressure.
4. Operation strategies and point recommendations
Short term traders:
- Try to buy near the support level: buy in the range of 4,080-4,100 US dollars, with stop loss of 4,050 US dollars, and the target is 4,150-4,200 US dollars.
- Test short near the resistance level: If the price rebounds to $4,200-4,225 and is blocked, you can go short with a stop loss of $4,250 and a target of $4,100.
Medium and long-term investors:
- Build positions in batches: gradually deploy in the range of 4,000-4,050 US dollars, control the position to 20%-30% of the total funds, and hold it for a long time to capture the dividends of technological upgrades and institutional capital inflows.
- Staking income: Participating in ETH staking through platforms such as Lido, the current annualized rate of return is about 4%, which can hedge the risk of short-term price fluctuations.
5. Summary
Ethereum is currently at a key node in the long-short game. The technical side is strong in the short term after breaking through $4,080, but we need to be vigilant about the divergence between volume and price and the pressure from giant whales to stop profits. On-chain capital inflows and institutional holdings provide long-term support, while Fusaka upgrades and favorable policies constitute medium-term catalysts. It is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough direction of the $4,080-4,225 range in the short term. In the medium and long term, bargain hunting can be carried out, focusing on the implementation of the Fed's resolution in November and the Fusaka upgrade in December. When market volatility intensifies, strict stop loss and position management are the core of risk control.
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