Hello everyone, today is October 27, 2025. Let’s talk about the latest developments in the encryption market, as well as a core topic worthy of in-depth discussion-Ethereum’s “super cycle”.

1. Market Express: The rebound signal of Bitcoin and Ethereum is clear, and the 200-day moving average has become the "Chuhehanjie"”

1. 
   Bitcoin: The 200-day moving average has strong support and the trend is still upward. After the Bitcoin price touched the 200-day moving average some time ago, it received strong support, which means that there is still sufficient power for the subsequent upward rebound, and the current market is far from entering a bear market. The core feature of the bear market is that "the long-term moving average group, short-term moving average group and price are all suppressed below the 200-day moving average", and the overall trend is downward. But now the Bitcoin price has broken through the short-term moving average group and the long-term moving average group, and the short-term moving average continues to diverge upward, which is fully consistent with the characteristics of an upward trend. I prefer to compare the 200-day moving average to the "Chuhehanjie" - after the price retreated to this key position this time, it was equivalent to "the troops withdrawing to the last line of defense". After encountering support, it rose again, just like "the vanguard troops broke through the main force and started a new round of charge." The financial aspect (BBD indicator) also confirmed this positive signal.
   
2. 
   Ethereum: The moving average breakthrough is imminent, and there is hope that earnings will turn positive in October. The trend of Ethereum is similar to that of Bitcoin. The price has broken through the long-term moving average group, and the short-term moving average group is also approaching the long-term moving average group. The breakthrough is only a matter of time. There are still three days until the end of October. Based on historical data, there is a high probability that the encryption market will achieve positive returns in October, and the subsequent performance of Ethereum is worth looking forward to.
   

2. Core discussion: Tom Lee’s “Ethereum Super Cycle” brings out the two-way relationship between price and value

1. Tom Lee’s core point of view: the two-way guidance of price and fundamentals

• Most of the time, price leads the fundamentals: when the price of a certain currency rises rapidly, the money-making effect will attract more users' attention, leading to an increase in fundamental data such as on-chain activity and transaction volume (such as the ecological activity triggered by the rise in BAYC prices during the previous NFT craze).
• There are rare times when fundamentals lead prices: when demand for stablecoins increases, activity on the Ethereum chain increases, and transaction volume reaches record highs, these solid fundamental data will in turn drive prices upward.

2. Extended thinking: In the crypto market, price can also “create” value.

• Projects on the verge of "death" may attract user attention due to short-term price surges, thereby forming community consensus, and even attracting developers to participate in construction, ultimately bringing the project back to life.”；
• New protocols (such as the recent X402) have become market hot spots through price increases, attracting traffic and funds to enter the market, and the traffic will feed back the ecosystem and promote the improvement of fundamentals；
• Some projects will actively attract attention by raising prices in the short term. Although this is a marketing method, it also confirms the importance of "price signals" - price increases are the most direct way to attract market attention.

3. Key reminder: After the price surges, you must pay attention to "whether the fundamentals can handle the traffic."”

• 99% of projects: There is no follow-up after the sudden increase, and they become "one wave". Most projects lack solid fundamental support. The sudden price increase is only the result of short-term capital speculation. Once the funds are withdrawn, the price will fall rapidly and never rebound.
• 1% of the projects: After a sharp rise, they will pull back and then start to increase in value. Really valuable projects (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and early UNICORN) will attract traffic after the price surge, and rely on solid fundamentals (ecology, technology, user stickiness) to absorb the new traffic. After experiencing a short-term correction, they will start a real value-driven rise.

3. Macro data support: Bitcoin selling pressure subsides, the fourth quarter is worth looking forward to

• The selling pressure on Bitcoin has significantly subsided, and the CVD (cumulative trading volume delta) of spot and futures has flattened for the first time, meaning that the recent strong selling pressure has eased.；
• The funding rate is lower than the average neutral level of 0.01%, indicating that there are not too many long positions in the market and there is no obvious bubble.；
• Funding rates have fallen sharply several times in the past two weeks, reflecting that investors are becoming more cautious, which in turn reduces the risk of irrational fluctuations in the subsequent market.

Conclusion