In-depth analysis of BTC/ETH market and strategic suggestions on October 28, 2025

1. Macroeconomic Background: Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts and Improving Market Liquidity

1. 
   Monetary policy shifted to support risk assets. On October 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 4.0%-4.25%, and hinted that it may cut interest rates two more times this year. This easing policy has significantly increased market risk appetite. The three major U.S. stock indexes have hit new highs recently, and cryptocurrencies, as highly elastic assets, have simultaneously benefited. In addition, the U.S. CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year in September, lower than the expected 3.1%, and core inflation fell back to 3.0%, further strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. The improvement in the liquidity environment has provided macro support for the rise of BTC and ETH.
   
2. 
   Institutional funds continue to deploy on-chain data show that mainstream institutions are accelerating their increase in cryptocurrency holdings. For example, Ethereum treasury company BitMine acquired 77,000 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 3.31 million, accounting for 2.8% of the circulating supply. At the same time, the "Whale with 100% Winning Rate" recently added 41.68 BTC and 47,500 ETH, with the total value of the position exceeding US$430 million. The inflow of institutional funds not only enhances market confidence, but also provides solid buying support for prices.
   

2. Technical analysis: competition for key resistance levels and hidden concerns about volume and price divergence

Bitcoin (BTC): Fluctuating at high levels awaiting a breakthrough

• Current price and trend: As of 13:00 on October 28, BTC price fluctuated in the range of 113,700-115,600 US dollars, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately 60.48 billion US dollars. The daily level shows a converging triangle shape, indicating an imminent directional breakthrough.
• Key support and resistance: Short-term support is at $113,500 (2-hour EMA100) and $112,000 (50-day EMA), with strong support at the psychological $110,000 mark； Overhead resistance is $115,137 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) and $116,000 (recent high).
• Technical indicator signals: MACD daily momentum weakens, and 2-hour long and short differences intensify； The RSI is neutral to bullish near 54, indicating that the market has not yet formed a unilateral trend. In terms of the relationship between volume and price, the recent rise has been accompanied by shrinking trading volume, and there is a risk of false growth. If the volume cannot effectively exceed US$116,000, a technical callback may be triggered.

Ethereum (ETH): $4,300 becomes the watershed between bulls and bears

• Current price and trend: ETH price fluctuates in the range of 4190-4260 US dollars, with a 24-hour increase of 2.25% and a trading volume of 36.25 billion US dollars. The weekly level faces the key resistance of $4,300 (the middle track of the Bollinger Bands). If it breaks through, it will open up the upward space to $4,500.
• Key support and resistance: Short-term support is $4,130 (2-hour EMA50) and $4,079 (200-day EMA), and strong support is at $3,850 (the dividing line between long and short)； The upper resistance levels are $4,250 (intensive trading area) and $4,300 (weekly pressure level).
• Technical Indicator Signal: MACD 2-hour momentum building, resonating with bullish engulfing pattern； The RSI is neutral to bullish around 56, but the 4-hour chart shows that the MA5, MA20 and MA60 moving averages are arranged in a bearish manner, indicating that there is pullback pressure. On-chain data shows that 2.3 million ETH have flowed out of exchanges in the past, reducing market selling pressure and providing potential support for prices.

3. Operation strategy: interval game and breakthrough confirmation

Bitcoin (BTC) Strategy

• Bullish scenario: If the price breaks through the resistance level of $116,000 on heavy volume, you can chase the long position with light positions, targeting $117,000 (previous high) and $120,000, with stop loss set below $115,000.
• Bearish scenario: If the price falls back below $113,500, short selling can be attempted with targets at $112,000 and $110,000, with stop loss above $114,000.
• Oscillatory strategy: Sell high and buy low in the range of 114,000-115,000 US dollars, with a stop loss of 500 points and a target of 1000-1500 points.

Ethereum (ETH) Strategy

• Bullish scenario: If the price effectively breaks through $4,250 and stands firm, you can go long, targeting $4,300 and $4,500, with a stop loss of $4,200.
• Bearish scenario: If the price falls below the $4130 support, go short with targets of $4079 and $3850 and stop loss of $4180.
• Range strategy: operate in the range of 4150-4250 US dollars, stop loss 50 points, target 100-150 points.

4. Risk warning

1. Uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy: Although the market is generally expected to cut interest rates in October, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may send a cautious signal at the October 30 meeting, and we need to be wary of the risk of a correction caused by policies that fall short of expectations.
2. Liquidity risk: The Binance oracle malfunction leading to a market flash crash on October 11 showed that exchange liquidity may plummet under extreme market conditions. It is recommended to control positions and diversify trading platforms.
3. Technical adjustment pressure: BTC and ETH have experienced large gains recently, and the RSI and MACD indicators show signs of overbought. It is necessary to guard against technical corrections caused by profit-taking.
4. Regulatory risks: The progress of the U.S. SEC’s approval of altcoin ETFs, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s regulatory policy on digital Hong Kong dollars, etc. may have a short-term impact on market sentiment.

5. Summary