BTC rose slightly during the day. Is the bull market really coming? Have you caught this wave of market?

Nakamoto 2025-10-28 15:43 97752人围观 BTC

Bitcoin price hit a new high again! Just last week, the price of BTC once exceeded the $126,000 mark, making countless investors' hearts beat faster. But then it quickly fell back to around $122,000. This roller-coaster-like market made many people both e

Bitcoin prices hit new highs again! Just last week, the price of BTC once exceeded the $126,000 mark, making countless investors' hearts beat faster. But then it quickly fell back to around $122,000. This roller-coaster-like market made many people both excited and anxious. Is this the beginning of a bull market or the last hurray?

Technical Signal: Bull Arrangement or Return of Light?

From the perspective of technical indicators, the current trend of Bitcoin does show the strong characteristics of a bullish arrangement. On the daily chart, BTC has stabilized above the 20-day moving average, and the MACD indicator continues to diverge after the golden cross above the zero axis, indicating sufficient upward momentum. The long-term consolidation range near $116,000 was effectively broken, which opened up space for subsequent gains.

But it is worth noting that Bitcoin saw a correction of more than 2% immediately after hitting a new all-time high of $126,000. Does this upward and downward trend indicate that the market is about to peak? On-chain data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC is still growing steadily, and the proportion of unmoved coins by long-term holders is close to 72%. This "diamond hand" phenomenon is usually an important feature of large-cycle bull markets.

Fundamental support: Institutions’ aggressive entry into the market VS the curse of cyclical law

MicroStrategy spent another $4.8 billion in the third quarter to increase its holdings of 4,225 BTC, bringing its total holdings to nearly 112,000 BTC. The total number of Bitcoins held by listed companies, ETFs and sovereign countries has reached 600,000, accounting for nearly 29% of the circulating supply. This "Bitcoinization of corporate finance" trend is constantly removing spot goods from the market, exacerbating scarcity in the circulation field.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun. Although the short-term market has seen "selling facts" profit-taking, historical patterns show that loose monetary policy will ultimately benefit risky assets. However, according to Bitcoin's "four-year cycle law", the current time window may be approaching the peak of the first two cycles. Traditional large holders are stepping up their selling, does this mean the bull market is coming to an end?

Investment Strategy: Fish Head, Fish Body or the Last Copper Plate

Li Ka-shing once said, "You should not earn the last copper penny." This sentence is especially applicable to Bitcoin investment. For long-term holders, there is no need to frequently judge whether the bull market is still there, just hold firmly. But for investors trying to sell high and buy low, now may be a critical time to develop an exit strategy.

The conservative and reasonable approach is to take out a small amount of positions and try to sell high and buy low. The specific proportion is determined based on your own risk preference. If Bitcoin continues to trend bearish, there are funds available to buy the bottom when it falls. ； If the bull market continues, there are still positions that can enjoy profits. Remember, investment requires moderation and balance, and don't think about eating "the whole fish".

Have you caught this trend?

Regardless of whether this round of market is the beginning or end of a bull market, the Bitcoin market is always full of opportunities and risks. The important thing is to manage your own risks and not get carried away by market mania. Tools such as spot ETFs may be a safer choice for ordinary investors to avoid the blind use of high leverage.

What do you think of the current Bitcoin market? Feel free to share your opinions and strategies in the comment area. Remember, in the cryptocurrency market, staying awake is more important than chasing profits.