Bitcoin has been trading sideways for a long time! Will it rise sharply in Q4?

Nakamoto 2025-10-28 17:58 16692人围观 BTC

October 2025 is almost over, and Bitcoin’s performance this month is really “Buddha-like” – the return rate is only 0. a few%, neither falling nor rising, just sideways above the 200-day moving average. Old players in the currency circle all know the sayi

October 2025 is almost over, and Bitcoin's performance this month is really "Buddha-like" - the return rate is only 0. a few%, neither falling nor rising, just sideways above the 200-day moving average. Old players in the currency circle all know the saying "it will rise if it lasts for a long time". Is this intuition or is it true? Combined with the current market conditions and policy trends, today I will explain to you in plain English whether Bitcoin can rise in the future!

1. "It will rise if it lasts for a long time" This is not a random guess: the trend is here.

Bitcoin's current sideways trading is not just wandering around, it is an "intermission" in the upward trend. To judge whether the market is good or not, it is enough to look at the 200-day moving average - this thing is like the "Chuhehanjie". The price has been standing on it, indicating that the market as a whole is going up, and has no intention of turning around and falling.

Looking back at the past, when Bitcoin rose, it was like this: take a break after rising for a while, accumulate enough energy in sideways trading, and then continue to charge.； Even if it is on the way down, it may reverse for a period of time. Now that there are only the last two days left in October, this return rate of about 0% has too much room for fluctuations in the future. In the currency circle, "everything is possible". Maybe tonight or tomorrow, it will suddenly increase by 10%. It is not surprising at all.

Moreover, this bull market is different from the past: supervision now does not suppress but supports it. There are also many large institutions coming in to play, and the amount of funds is particularly large. These changes may make the bull market drag on longer, with a high probability that it will last until the first quarter of early 2026 and will not end early.

2. Core reason: American politics is “manipulating” the Bitcoin cycle

Bitcoin's four-year bull-and-bear cycle is actually driven by American politics. Satoshi Nakamoto originally set this cycle to follow the American election cycle - every four years when politicians run for re-election, they will definitely force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and put more money into the market to make the economy look prosperous and win votes.

Now Trump is going to nominate a new chairman of the Federal Reserve. He has been urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Everyone knows this. Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve says it is independent, in fact the economy still has to serve politics. In order to keep their positions, politicians will definitely engage in mild inflation to make money "worthless", and assets like Bitcoin are the most benefited from this set of benefits.

However, it should be noted that after the entry of large institutions, market fluctuations may not be as severe as before. In the past, the bull market could fall by half after rising, but now it may not fall even if it falls a little. So don't think about making quick money by "selling high and buying low". Most people do this and end up with less and less Bitcoin. It's better to hold it for a long time.

3. Key signals for Q4 to rise: asset rotation + more money

There is an obvious trend in the market now: gold has fallen, falling below 4,000. In the past, when gold rose, funds went there, but now that gold cannot rise, the money must find another place to go, and Bitcoin is a popular choice - after all, gold's rising market is over, and it is Bitcoin's turn to perform.

In addition, the Federal Reserve will stop "shrinking" its balance sheet soon and may put more money into the market later. The current valuation of the US stock market is extremely high, and it is a bit dangerous to rely on a few technology companies to support it. Once the U.S. stock market falls, Bitcoin may fall with it, but it will soon rebound and rise even more than the U.S. stock market. After all, Bitcoin is both a risky asset and a safe-haven asset. The decentralization of the chain makes it much more reliable than traditional finance.

There is also the NFT field. Although it is not popular now, Penguin has cooperated with DreamWorks Animation to develop NFT, and the Metaverse project is also online, which shows that the Web3 ecosystem has been getting better. However, the market differentiation is now particularly serious. Bitcoin may hit new highs, but altcoins have not yet recovered. So don’t be greedy for cheap and buy those unknown altcoins. If you don’t seize the opportunity in the past, it may never rise again. It is safe to hold on to core assets like Bitcoin.

Conclusion: Just wait patiently and it will be over. Opportunities are reserved for those who can keep their composure.

Bitcoin is currently trading sideways, not because it is not rising, but because it is holding back its strength. The logic of the 4-year cycle has not been broken, but the fluctuations are not as big as before. Now there are four major advantages: regulatory support, institutional entry, gold fund transfer, and more money later. In the last quarter of 2025, Bitcoin will most likely break through sideways, giving those who believe in it a surprise.

One final reminder: investment is risky, so don’t listen to other people’s lies. There are many opportunities in the currency circle, but there are also many pitfalls. Don't chase short-term rises and falls, focus on the core logic, and hold high-quality assets for the long term to make money.

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Finally, I would like to remind everyone: This article does not constitute any investment advice. Investment is risky and decisions must be made with caution.

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