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BNB is destroyed on a large scale again. What will happen when scarcity reaches the extreme?

C.Z 2025-10-28 21:52 28507人围观 BNB

↑ Click on the "blue text" above to follow me. Recently, the Ethereum (ETH) market has been in violent shock, with the price falling from $2,839 on February 24 to $2,076, a drop of more than 26% on the 5th. On-chain data shows large-scale selling by whale
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Recently, the Ethereum (ETH) market has been in violent shock, with the price falling all the way from US$2,839 on February 24 to US$2,076, a drop of more than 26% on the 5th. On-chain data shows large-scale selling by whale accounts, and market panic has spread. Behind this sell-off, there are not only the impact of short-term events, but also the deep contradictions of the Ethereum ecosystem.

1. Whale collapse: multiple pressures behind the sell-off of 440,000 ETH


  1. On-chain data reveals giant whale movements
    In the past week, multiple whale addresses concentrated on selling approximately 440,000 ETH. For example, wallet address 0x07Fe transferred 10,000 ETH (approximately $23.44 million) to Binance, while 0xc725 sold 8074 ETH (approximately $19.63 million). This concentrated selling caused ETH price to fall below $2,300 and raised concerns about support levels such as $2,100. Glassnode analysis pointed out that if the market adjusts further, ETH may fall to $1,890, and there is a strong support area of ​​about 1.82 million ETH below this price.

  2. Staking outflows and inflation return
    Since November 2024, the amount of pledges on the Ethereum chain has continued to see net outflows. The amount of pledges has dropped from 34.95 million pieces to 34 million pieces, and the number of pledgers has decreased by 30,000. At the same time, the inflation rate of Ethereum returned to 0% after the Dencun upgrade, and the deflation narrative failed, further weakening investor confidence.

  3. Layer 2 controversy fuels selling pressure
    Recently, Layer 2 networks (such as Base) have been accused of grabbing high profits and selling ETH through centralized sorters, creating a "blood-sucking effect" on the Ethereum ecosystem. For example, Base made more than $100 million in revenue through sorters in the past year, most of which were transferred to Coinbase and then suspected of being sold. This model caused the community to question the Layer 2 economic model and intensified the market selling pressure.

2. Where is the market bottom? The game between technology and finance


  1. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Oversold Signals
    ETH is currently in a downward trend, and the William indicator shows that the market has entered the oversold range, but trading volume continues to shrink, indicating a lack of buying power. Glassnode predicts that $1,890 is a key support level. If it falls below, it may trigger more stop-loss orders. ； If it holds, it may rebound based on the accumulation of long-term holders in this area.

  2. ETF capital inflows and institutional bargain hunting
    Despite depressed prices, Ethereum spot ETFs have continued to see net inflows recently. For example, BlackRock ETHA had an inflow of $287 million in a single week, and Fidelity FETH had an inflow of $97.28 million. On February 4, after the plunge, ETFs saw a net inflow of US$300 million in a single day, showing the institution's intention to bargain on dips. However, ETF funds account for only 3.15%, which has a limited effect on driving prices.

  3. Contract market risk accumulation
    Ethereum contract open interest reached $30 billion before the plunge, far exceeding historical highs. On February 3, positions exploded to US$380 million in a single day, and positions plummeted by US$7 billion after both long and short positions were eliminated. High leverage superimposes market fluctuations, which may intensify price fluctuations in the short term.

3. Future Path: Rebound Catalysts and Potential Risks


  1. Ecological Reform and Layer 2 Governance
    Vitalik recently called on Layer2 to return part of its revenue to the Ethereum ecosystem, such as through fee destruction or supporting public products. If the Layer 2 economic model is adjusted, it may ease selling pressure and restore market confidence.

  2. Macro environment and regulatory trends
    The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and U.S. encryption regulatory policies (such as ETF approval progress) will affect the flow of funds. If market sentiment picks up, ETH may rebound along with BTC.

  3. Short-term risks: Liquidity crisis and hacking incidents
    The aftermath of the Bybit hack and tight liquidity on exchanges may further depress prices. If ETH falls below $1,890, panic selling may cause the price to drop to 2023 lows (around $1,000).

Conclusion: A test of faith and the rebalancing of long-term value


The current predicament of Ethereum is a concentrated expression of the bursting of short-term speculative bubbles and ecological structural problems. Although the belief in buying on dips has been impacted, ETF institutional bottom buying and potential reforms of Layer 2 still provide support for long-term value. Investors need to pay attention to the effectiveness of the support in the 1890-2100 US dollar range, as well as the change in the flow of funds within the ecosystem. The bottom of the market may be brewing in panic, but a rebound requires a clearer catalyst—whether it is a technological breakthrough, ecological innovation, or a shift in macro policy.

The 33rd destruction was implemented: a carefully designed “deflation experiment””


On October 27, 2025, BNB Chain announced the completion of the 33rd quarterly destruction, and 1.441 million BNB (worth approximately US$1.208 billion) disappeared permanently from circulation. This is the 33rd “stress test” of BNB’s deflation mechanism and another milestone towards its goal of “digital gold”.
After this destruction, the total supply of BNB dropped to 137.7 million, a decrease of 31.15% from the initial 200 million. If calculated at the current rate, BNB will exceed the 100 million mark around 2030, becoming one of the most scarce tokens in the cryptocurrency field.

The underlying logic of the deflation mechanism:
The destruction of BNB is not simply "reducing the quantity", but is driven by both on-chain transaction friction (such as gas fee burning) and quarterly profit repurchase. For example, BNB Chain's Maxwell upgrade reduced gas fees by 90%. While user transaction costs dropped, on-chain activity surged, further pushing up BNB consumption. This "the more you use, the less you use" design is reshaping the market's perception of the value of tokens.


The Apocalypse of Historical Destruction: The “Non-Linear Relationship between Price and Scarcity””


In the past ten years, BNB has experienced 32 quarterly destructions, with a cumulative destruction of over 110 million BNB. Interestingly, destruction and price are not simply positively correlated:
• 2021 Bull Market: The amount of destruction is less than 500,000 coins per quarter, but the price soared from US$300 to US$690, an increase of more than 130%；

• Bear market in 2024: The single destruction volume exceeded 1.5 million, but the price fell from US$1,100 to US$600；

• The market will be shaken in 2025: After the destruction, the price briefly touched $1,200, and as of press time, the price was reported at $1,142.

Key contradictions:
Simple destruction cannot support the price and needs to match the growth of ecological demand. For example, in 2025, BNB Chain's daily active addresses exceeded 56.4 million, and DEX trading volume reached 24 billion US dollars. The "real demand" brought about by ecological expansion is the core driving force of prices.



National Reserves and Institutional Hoarding: BNB’s “Trust Monetization” Process


BNB is transforming from an “exchange token” into a global strategic reserve asset:
• Kazakhstan: Incorporate BNB into national crypto reserves for cross-border payments and energy settlements；

• Jilepur Meditation City in Bhutan: BNB will be used as an official reserve alongside BTC and ETH；

• Listed companies: Nano Labs, CEA Industries and other companies have accumulated more than 500,000 BNB, accounting for 0.36% of the circulating supply.

The deep logic of institutional behavior:
• Anti-inflation properties: BNB’s deflation mechanism makes it a tool to combat the devaluation of fiat currencies；

• Ecological binding: Holding BNB can enjoy on-chain gas discounts, airdrop rewards and other benefits；

• Compliance endorsement: If the US spot BNB ETF is approved, it will further strengthen its financial attributes.

$200 Target: A Triple Challenge at the Extremes of Scarcity


Although BNB is predicted by some analysts to exceed $2,000, it needs to cross three key thresholds:
Liquidity bottleneck: The current average daily trading volume of BNB is approximately US$30 billion, which is only 1/5 of Bitcoin. To support the price of US$200, the average daily trading volume needs to exceed US$100 billion. ；
Ecological ceiling: BNB Chain’s TVL ($7.8 billion) is only 6.1% of Ethereum, and more traditional assets need to be attracted to the chain.；
Regulatory uncertainty: The US SEC’s review of platform currencies and the compliance pressure of the EU MiCA Act may trigger short-term selling.

Historical reference:
It took nearly 50 years for gold to break through $2,000 in 2020 from the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. If BNB wants to replicate this trajectory, it needs to continue to make breakthroughs in technology, ecology, and compliance.



Future Deduction: When Deflation Meets Web3.0


The ultimate value of BNB may not lie in price numbers, but in reconstructing the value distribution system of digital assets:
• RWA (Tokenization of Real Assets): BNB Chain has supported assets such as treasury bonds and energy on the chain, and may attract a trillion-dollar market in the future；

• AI integration: Cooperation with projects such as Kite AI to explore the combination of smart contracts and AI agents；

• Cross-chain interoperability: Through the opBNB expansion plan, seamless interaction with Ethereum and Solana is achieved.

If these visions are realized, BNB may evolve from a "token" to a value hub in the Web3.0 era, and its price logic will also transcend the traditional financial framework.

Conclusion: Scarcity is not the end, but the starting point of a new story

BNB’s destruction mechanism is like a sophisticated time machine, pushing 200 million tokens to the end of scarcity. But the real explosion of value always comes from ecological self-evolution. When Kazakhstan uses BNB to settle oil trade, when listed companies use BNB to pay employees, and when AI projects use BNB to drive smart contracts - this is the true test of the quality of "digital gold".

$200 may be just a symbol, but what BNB wants to write is the value narrative for the next decade.

『Statement: This content is only for popular science communication among Web3 enthusiasts. The content is compiled from the opinions of public media and relevant industry professionals. It does not constitute any investment advice. Please pay attention to market risks! 』



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