ETH range oscillation needs to be broken through, BTC's downward trend continues

Vitalik 2025-10-29 00:17 97063人围观 ETH

BTC 30-minute K-line chart ET 30-minute K-line chart view The current market shows a differentiated pattern: ETH is in [range oscillation], the direction needs to be chosen； BTC is in a [downtrend] and bears are dominant. The technical forms and market co

BTC 30-minute K-line chart

ET 30-minute K-line chart

point of view

The current market is showing a differentiated pattern: ETH is in [range shock], and the direction needs to be chosen.； BTC is in a [downtrend] and bears are dominant. The technical forms and market conditions of the two are completely different. Market status comparison

•ETH: Range oscillation (4040-4135), the direction of the moving average entanglement is unclear
•BTC: The downward trend is clear, the evening star + short positions resonate

Common environmental characteristics: neutral market sentiment, lack of macro-catalysis, and technical aspects dominate short-term trends

1. Overall analysis

ETH price fluctuates within the range of 4040-4135, and the technical signals are contradictory: the moving average death cross implies weakening momentum, but the bullish engulfing pattern provides hope for a potential reversal. We need to focus on the breakthrough of the 4135 resistance level. An effective breakthrough will open up the upside space. Otherwise, the 4040 support may be tested. BTC’s clear downtrend is technically confirmed, with an evening star pattern forming a bearish resonance with the moving average bearish alignment. The key support 113614 has become the focus of bulls and bears. If it falls below, the target level of 111200 will be tested. Low volatility characteristics may limit the magnitude of one-way moves.

2. Key interpretations

Technical diagnosis

•ETH

•The boundaries of the range are clear: support 4040, resistance 4135
•Moving average death cross contradicts bullish engulfing pattern
•A heavy volume breakthrough is needed to confirm the direction.

•BTC

•Evening Star Pattern Reinforces Bearish Signal
•Moving average short positions support trend continuation
•113614 support level becomes a key line of defense

External environment diagnosis

•Market Sentiment Neutral (Fear & Greed Index)
•Macroeconomic indicators are stable and have limited impact
•The news surface is balanced between long and short, lacking unilateral drivers

3. Suggested points

ETH (range shock)

1. Short selling at resistance level

•Entrance: 4140
•Stop loss: 4155
•Target: 4060
•Basis: The resistance along the upper edge of the range is effective, but the kinetic energy is insufficient

2. Go long at the support level

•Entry: 4045
•Stop loss: 3985
•Target: 4130
•Basis: Key support combined with reversal patterns

BTC (downtrend)

1. Shorting on rebound

•Entrance: 114712
•Stop loss: 115556
•Target: 113614
•Basis: The trend continues and the resistance level is effective

2. Break the position and chase the short position

•Entry: 113614 (after falling below)
•Stop loss: 114712
•Target: 111200
•Basis: Breaking under support opens up space

4. Key risk warnings

•If ETH breaks through 4155, the shock pattern may become stronger
•If BTC regains 115556, the downward trend will face challenges
•In a low-volatility environment, we need to be wary of the risk of false breakthroughs
•Pay attention to the transmission effect of US stock market fluctuations on cryptocurrency

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This article is a personal analysis point of view, is for information exchange and market research only, and does not constitute investment advice or trading recommendation. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and risky. Investors need to independently assess risks and take independent responsibilities.