English
36318
Technical trend analysis The two pie went out of the expected decline yesterday. Like yesterday's analysis, the daily K-line went out of a single positive signal anyway. The K-line faced the demand for continued correction, and it just completed the weekly level callback demand. Judging from yesterday's closing line, the Dayin closing line will face continued falling demand today. The weekly line has been emphasizing this week that failure to break through the key pressure last week will face a weekly level correction. The current trend is that the weekly level is optimistic about the completion of the weekly level retracement of the boll mid-track trend today and tomorrow. After the retracement is completed, it will face the end of the monthly line. If it rebounds strongly after retracement near the mid-track, it will continue to face technical demand for higher next month. If the rebound after the retracement is not strong, the range for next month will be very clear. In the short term, we are still optimistic about continued downward demand. Judging from the hourly chart trend, after hitting the high point near 4250 this week, it is currently relatively optimistic about the extension of the third wave in the downgrade of the wave level. Today, the 3-wave extension has led to a small 5-wave decline. Currently, the focus is on the 4-wave rebound point 4066-4120 area, which will be today's rebound high point and the 3-wave-5 wave decline. On the whole, combined with the closing line on the daily chart, we can see that the K-line is facing a continued decline anyway, and the wave trend on the daily chart will also face a continued correction to complete the weekly level decline. In terms of ideas, it touches the key pressure to go short, and the low key supports the long strategy.  Operation ideas: 1. Short selling in the 4066-4120 area for the first time, risk control 41752, 3750-3700 multi-news analysis 1. Core Theme: Technological progress and regulatory concerns are intertwined, and the market is waiting for key data On October 29, 2025, Ethereum’s news showed a tug-of-war between “macro and technology”. On the one hand, the continuous upgrade of core protocols brings long-term benefits to the network ； On the other hand, a rumor about regulation triggered short-term worries in the market. The overall market sentiment is cautious and awaiting new catalysts. 2. Potential positive factors (building a long-term value foundation) Verkle Trees testnet makes breakthrough progress Simulation event: The Ethereum core developer team announced on social media that the first public test network "Verkle-Geary" integrating Verkle Trees has been running stably for more than two weeks, and the state storage efficiency has increased by about 85%. This marks a crucial step for Ethereum on the road to implementing a “stateless client” and solving the problem of state bloat. Market Interpretation: This move is regarded as an important milestone in the "The Purge" phase, which will greatly reduce node operating costs in the long term and improve network decentralization and security. Although it does not affect short-term prices, it consolidates ETH's technological leadership and enhances the confidence of long-term holders. Layer2 ecological lock-up volume (TVL) hits a new record high Simulated event: According to simulated L2Beat data, the total locked-up value of the Ethereum second-layer network (including Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, etc.) exceeded US$80 billion on October 28, growing for the fifth consecutive week. This shows that funds and user activity are continuing to converge into the Ethereum ecosystem, consolidating its core position as the “settlement layer” of the crypto world. Market Interpretation: The prosperity of the ecosystem directly increases the "currency premium" and "asset pledge demand" of ETH. The huge TVL is the most powerful proof of the value of ETH as a "productive asset" and "on-chain economic fuel". Institutional staking services welcome new giants Simulated event: Fidelity, the world's top asset management company, officially launched Ethereum staking services to its institutional customers. This move provides a compliant and convenient channel for huge funds in the traditional financial field to participate in ETH staking and earn interest. Market Interpretation: This is expected to further reduce the circulation of ETH in the secondary market (because pledges require lock-up), and introduce incremental funds from traditional fields, which will be a long-term positive for the supply and demand fundamentals of ETH. 3. Potential negative factors (causing short-term fluctuations and concerns) [Market Rumors] The scope of the US SEC’s review of Ethereum staking may be expanded Simulated event: A well-known financial reporter revealed on the The rumor seeks to explore whether these node operators constituted an unregistered securities offering. Market Interpretation: Although the news was unconfirmed, it had a significant negative impact on market sentiment on October 29. This has triggered concerns in the market that the staking ecosystem may face stricter supervision, causing some cautious investors to choose to stay on the sidelines for the time being. As a result, the price of ETH came under pressure and fell slightly during the day. Gas prices remain depressed, reflecting weakening on-chain speculation Simulated event: The average gas fee of the ETH main network continues to be below 10 Gwei, and has remained so for nearly a month. Although this is a good thing for users, it also reflects the lack of phenomenal new applications or NFT minting activities on the chain that can consume a lot of Gas. Market Interpretation: The market is worried that Ethereum’s “fee-based business model” will face revenue pressure in the absence of speculative enthusiasm. At the same time, this may also mean that the overall market activity is entering a quiet period. 4. Major event forecasts and market expectations Event: U.S. non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate for October are expected to be released on November 1. Market expectations: At this point in time on October 29, the entire cryptocurrency market, including ETH, was in "Fed Watch Mode." If the non-farm payroll data is strong, it may strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, putting pressure on risk assets. ； On the contrary, it may bring about a rebound. Market trading tends to be light ahead of the data release. 5. Comprehensive research and judgment and summary of market sentiment Overall, the ETH news on October 29, 2025 is a typical portrayal of "long, short, short". The long-term benefits are solid and clear: the progress of Verkle Trees and the record high of L2 TVL continue to consolidate Ethereum’s moat, proving that its ecosystem is still developing and growing in a healthy and orderly manner. Short-term disturbances mainly come from external uncertainties: SEC regulatory rumors (even if unconfirmed) and potential macroeconomic pressures have become key factors dominating intraday price fluctuations. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment is biased toward "cautious optimism." Most long-term investors (HODLers) and institutions believe that the fundamentals of ETH are still strengthening, and any current correction caused by the news is an opportunity for long-term layout. However, short-term traders pay more attention to the subsequent development of regulatory rumors and macro data, and their operations tend to be short-term and cautious. |
|
|
|
|
|
