Don’t be dazzled by short-term fluctuations! ETH is currently playing a life-and-death game of $4,000. On one side is the thrilling rebound of the extreme support of $3,925, and on the other side is the suppression game of $4,037 in the middle of the Bollinger Bands. Institutional funds are secretly collecting funds frantically. The script of this wave of market may be more exciting than you think!
1. A direct look at the current situation: the “institutional conspiracy” behind the strong support of 3925”
On October 29, ETH once dropped to $3925.01, just one step away from the lower Bollinger Band track of 3915, and then quickly rebounded to fluctuate around $4005. This sharp decline and sharp rise is no accident:
- From a technical perspective, the Bollinger Bands (BOLL) indicator shows that the current price is in the "sensitive range" below the middle rail (4037.74) and above the lower rail (3915.59). This "line rebound" pattern is often a precursor to a short-term trend reversal.
- Synchronous verification of data on the chain: the outflow of ETH from the exchange increased by 120,000 pieces in a single day, and institutional ETF positions showed a "step increase" in the range of US$3,900-4,000, apparently taking advantage of market panic to pick up cheap chips.
2. Technical password: MACD turning head + Bollinger Band contraction, hidden outbreak signal
The current technical form can be called a "textbook-level game":
- Bollinger Bands: The upper track is 4159.88 and the lower track is 3915.59. The range is shrinking, which means that the "window for market changes" has been opened. Once the price stabilizes at the middle track of 4037, the next target is the upper track of 4159, and may even point to 4500 after breaking through!
- MACD indicator: The difference between DIF (-26.51) and DEA (-29.81) is narrowing, and the MACD column (6.61) has obvious signs of turning from green to red, which is a key signal for the recovery of bull momentum.
- Support and resistance: 3915 is the "life and death bottom" (the probability of falling below is extremely low, after all, the institution has a clear attitude towards supporting the bottom), 4037 is the "watershed between strength and weakness", if it breaks through, the trend will reverse, and if it is under pressure, it may return to the range of 3950-4000.
3. Fundamental bomb: zkEVM + pledge rate, ETH’s “long-term king bomb””
Don’t be fooled by short-term fluctuations! The fundamentals of ETH are undergoing a "qualitative leap":
- zkEVM mainnet deployment: After its launch in the fourth quarter, Ethereum Layer 2 performance will increase by 10 times, and gas fees will be reduced by another 80%. This will directly trigger the user growth of DeFi and NFT, thereby driving up the demand for ETH.
- The pledge rate exceeds 25%: The current amount of ETH pledged exceeds 30 million, and the pledge threshold may be reduced to 1 ETH in the future. Once the pledge rate reaches 40%, the circulation will further shrink. Driven by the two wheels of "deflation + demand", the scarcity of ETH is comparable to digital gold.
- ETF funding frenzy: Spot ETFs are still absorbing more than 200,000 ETH every day, and institutional holdings have exceeded US$35 billion. This "long-term bull-level" capital layout is destined that ETH's short-term correction is just an "opportunity to get on board."
4. Trend Prediction: Two scripts, which side do you stand on?
Radical script: 3925 support is effective. After the MACD golden cross is confirmed, the price breaks through 4037, storms all the way to 4159, and targets 4500-4800 before the end of the year! Conservative script: Fall back when encountering resistance at 4037, step back to 3950 to confirm support, then continue the slow bull trend and move towards 4200-4300.
But no matter which script is used, $3,900-$4,000 is the "golden position building area" - institutions are buying the bottom, what are you waiting for?
What is your ETH strategy?
Do you think ETH can break through 4100 this week? Should I increase my position at the current price and wait for the correction to 3950 before entering, or should I hold the currency and wait and see? Leave your views in the comment area and follow me to get accurate analysis of ETH real-time on-chain capital movements and technical aspects. Don’t miss this wave of market trends that institutions are betting on!
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