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Ethereum (ETH) is currently developing strongly, with three major positive resonances: large whale purchases, ETF fund reflow and Fusaka upgrade. Analysts have locked the target price at US$7,000, which will fluctuate in a narrow range around US$4,000 in the short term. A breakthrough needs to meet multiple conditions.
1. Multiple positive supports and rising market optimism
(Data source: X)
Whale activity has intensified significantly. Bitmine spent US$113 million to buy ETH. Whale trading volume exceeded US$1 million on October 29 and rose to a three-week high. Institutional buying strengthened support near US$4,000.
(Data source: Santiment)
ETF capital flows picked up, with net inflows of US$379.9 million this week, and total net assets reaching US$27.66 billion, ending the outflow trend in the previous two weeks.
(Data source: SoSoValue)
The Fusaka upgrade is progressing smoothly and has been implemented on the Hoodi test network. After the main network is activated on December 3, it will improve scalability, reduce gas costs, and achieve parallel execution to consolidate the network's competitiveness.
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2. The sword is pointing at US$7,000. Three major breakthrough conditions are indispensable.
(Data source: X)
ETH is currently oscillating around $4,000, with a trading volume of 25,800 shares, an RSI of 47, and a CMF of -0.06. The momentum is neutral and the buying pressure is limited.
(Data source: TradingView)
To reach the $7,000 target, three core conditions need to be met: Price breaks out of the current box-shaped range； Daily trading volume increased significantly, and the CMF indicator turned from negative to positive ； ETF funds continue to flow in, and whale absorption continues (Bitmine's large purchases have laid the foundation).
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3. Short-term shocks await a breakthrough. Failure to do so will retest support.
The current trend is similar to the pattern before the May rally, and has the potential for a breakthrough, but it is not inevitable. If the above-mentioned breakthrough conditions cannot be met, ETH may retest the support band below, and the expected steep rise will be invalid.
In the short term, we need to focus on the breakthrough of the range and the changes in volume and energy. Whether the positive factors can be converted into actual gains depends on the continued inflow of funds and further boosting of market sentiment.
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