1. Technical Trend Analysis The second pie continued to move out of the expected negative line yesterday. The three consecutive negative declines mean that the weekly level retracement demand has been completed, and the weekly hit the mid-track and rebounded. It just didn’t hit the expected 3720 mark. The weekly level retracement is completed, and now we need to pay attention to whether the short-term decline continues. The daily chart continues to be negative and once again closed below the mid-rail. Today's upward trend will be an important pressure zone. The short-term moving averages MA5 and MA10 have also formed an important pressure point for today's rebound. If we want to restart the upward space, we must effectively stabilize this area. On the downside, if the BOLL contraction cannot effectively break through upward, it is still optimistic that it will continue to test the 3720 mark, which is the lower rail demand of the boll. The overall idea today is still to maintain the weak downward shock idea of the lower track before maintaining the upper pressure zone. Operation idea: Any short position above 3960 and risk control of 4040. More than 3720 below. If the 3960 pressure mark is unexpectedly exceeded, change your thinking. 2. Analysis of key news aspects
1. Macroeconomic and regulatory environment
Global monetary policy is turning loose: major central banks (such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank) will generally start interest rate cutting cycles in 2025, and market liquidity will improve. This macro backdrop has created a favorable funding environment for high-risk, high-growth potential cryptoassets such as Ethereum. Investor confidence returned in interest-rate sensitive technology and crypto asset classes.
Progress in regulatory clarity: Although the U.S. SEC has been slow in approving Ethereum ETFs, there have been no new negative stances. The market generally expects that with the final approval of the spot Ethereum ETF at the end of 2025 or early 2026, it will provide a compliant entry channel for institutional funds. In addition, the EU's MiCA regulations have taken full effect, providing a clear regulatory framework for the development of Ethereum in the European market and reducing the risk of policy uncertainty.
2. Ethereum core technology progress
““Prague” upgrade enters final testing phase: Ethereum’s next major upgrade, “Prague,” is expected to be deployed in the first quarter of 2026. Currently, the developer community is focusing on final functional testing and code audits. The core of this upgrade is the introduction of Verkle Trees, which is a key technological step to achieve "stateless clients" and further significantly improve network scalability. While the upgrade itself has not yet occurred, the smooth progress of the process has infused long-term confidence in the market.
The maturity and risks of the re-pledge ecosystem: The total locked value (TVL) of re-pledge protocols built on Ethereum (such as EigenLayer) has reached a record high. This significantly improves the economic security of Ethereum and expands the utility of ETH from a mere pledged asset to a "security-as-a-service" cornerstone of the entire crypto economy. However, the market has also begun to pay attention to the "systemic risks" it may bring. Discussions about the re-pledge safety model have increased, but no substantial negative events have yet occurred.
3. Institutional adoption and DeFi ecosystem
Institutional applications are advancing steadily: More traditional financial institutions, such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, are reported to be using private branches or public mainnets of Ethereum to conduct asset tokenization pilots, especially in the fields of treasury bonds, real estate and private equity. Although these news did not cause violent fluctuations in the retail market, they continued to prove the credibility of Ethereum in enterprise-level applications.
DeFi TVL is rising steadily: The total locked-up value of DeFi on Ethereum rebounded moderately in October after experiencing early fluctuations, showing the continued pursuit of on-chain returns in an environment of falling interest rates. The growth of the decentralized derivatives trading and RWA (real world assets) tracks is particularly significant.
Layer 2 competition is fierce: mainstream Layer 2 solutions such as Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync, and Starknet continue to optimize transaction speed and fees. Although the intensified competition has diverted some ecological traffic, on the whole, they have jointly enlarged the "cake" of the Ethereum ecosystem and fed back the value of the main network as a security and settlement layer. The prosperity of Layer 2 is an important support for the long-term value of ETH.
4. Challenges and Risk Factors
Competition from public chains such as Solana and Avalanche: Competitor public chains still maintain strong momentum in transaction speed and new user acquisition, especially in high-transaction and consumer-level application scenarios. This continues to put pressure on Ethereum’s market share and narrative.
The “old problem” of high gas fees: Although Layer 2 solutions have significantly reduced users’ actual costs, gas fees will still spike intermittently when the Ethereum main network performs complex operations (such as participating in NFT casting, large-scale cross-chain). This remains a psychological and technical barrier to mass adoption.
Potential fluctuations in macroeconomic data: Although the overall environment is loose, any higher-than-expected inflation or employment data may change market expectations for central bank policies, thereby triggering a correction in global risk assets, and Ethereum will not be immune.
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