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10.30|BTC/ETH daily market analysis

Vitalik 2025-10-30 19:24 43048人围观 ETH

(Today's market analysis) Today's market analysis2025.10.30 BTC current price: $110,800 Day analysis 1️⃣ Structure interpretation Bitcoin is in a key technical gaming range before the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Get support near 109200-108600


(Today’s market analysis)

Today's market analysis

2025.10.30



BTC

Current price: $110,800



Intraday analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation

Bitcoin is in a key technical gaming range ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Get support near 109200-108600. After the Federal Reserve decision was announced, despite the interest rate cut, the market showed a "selling fact" reaction, and the price once dipped to 109,200, which showed a strong willingness to take short-term profits after the good news ran out. At present, we need to pay attention to whether the price can regain its footing above 1 hour.

2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics


  • Fund Flow: Despite short-term fluctuations, funds are still flowing into Bitcoin. Over the past four days, the Bitcoin spot ETF has recorded net inflows of approximately $462.6 million, which has provided underlying support for the market.

  • On-chain data: Some analysts pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent recovery has not been accompanied by a significant increase in market participation, which may indicate that the market will enter a potential consolidation stage.

  • Exchange news: In the past 24 hours, the amount of liquidated positions across the entire network reached US$555.8 million, and a large number of leveraged traders were purged. Data shows that after the interest rate decision, the size of short positions (approximately $47.55 million) far exceeded that of long positions (approximately $14.4 million), indicating that there was also a fierce long-short game during the market decline.


3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day

Be wary of short-term fluctuations and focus on defense at key positions. 112600-113700 is a key position. If we cannot break through here, we will know that the weakness will continue. As for the support near 109000, we believe that it is a small support and cannot withstand the impact of the market decline. Our downward target is to continue to look at the 106000 area.

4️⃣ Risk warning

  1. Subsequent impact of macro policies: Although the interest rate cut has been implemented, we need to pay attention to whether the market will re-price the future interest rate path. Any hawkish hints from the Fed on the pace of subsequent policy could continue to pressure risk assets.

  2. Risk of technical breakdown: Support around 106000 is crucial. If it falls below on heavy volume, it may complete a double top pattern, triggering technical selling and causing prices to drop further.

  3. High-leverage liquidation risk: The current market volatility has increased significantly, and high-leverage positions are easily liquidated. Be sure to control your positions to avoid being forced to close them during violent fluctuations.



[For reference only, not as investment advice]



ETH

Current price: $3942.21



Intraday analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation

The intraday trend of Ethereum is linked to that of Bitcoin, but is relatively weak. The price once fell below the psychological mark of 4000, and found support in the 3860-3805 range and rebounded. At present, the direction of Ethereum is still bearish. In view of the one-hour flat trend, it means that there is still a need for shock.

2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics

  • Fund Flow: On-chain data reveals reasons for weak rebound. The holder accumulation ratio has dropped by about 1% from the peak, and at the same time, the amount of ETH flowing out of the exchange is also decreasing, which shows that investors are not strong in buying willingness at the current price, and short-term selling willingness is increasing.

  • On-chain data: The cost basis heat map shows that there is a strong supply cluster (approximately 1.34 million ETH) in the range of $4,283 to $4,326. This is the main "stumbling block" to the recent rebound. Many early buyers will choose to take profits in this area.


3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day

Sell ​​high and buy low, waiting for confirmation of a breakout. It is recommended to operate within a small range for the time being. The current trend is bearish. Try to go short before the upper pressure zone breaks through.

4️⃣ Risk warning


  1. Upper supply zone pressure: Heavy selling pressure above $4,250 is the biggest resistance in the short term. Any rebound is likely to be limited until there is an effective breakout of this area.

  2. Ecological fund diversion: Recently, some other public chains (such as Solana and Aptos) have become ecologically active and may divert market funds that could have been used for ETH.

  3. Linkage risk: The trend of ETH is still highly dependent on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin loses key support, it will be difficult for ETH to survive alone.



[For reference only, not as investment advice]

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Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the personal views of Mr. Fengshen and does not constitute specific operational recommendations. If you operate based on this, you are responsible for your profits and losses. Investments are risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.



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