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Solana (SOL) was trading at about $194 in the afternoon and is at a key short-term direction selection node. Yesterday's judgment that the support of 195-200 US dollars is effective has been falsified by the market, and the actual price trend is weak. 📉 Core trends and key technical positions SOL failed to hold the $195 mark and is currently falling back after a slight rebound to a daily high of $203.83, indicating that the $200-205 range has formed a new strong resistance area. The current core support has moved down to the $188-192 range. From a technical perspective, a descending channel has formed on the hourly chart of SOL/USD, with resistance near $200, which suppresses the short-term price rebound. 🔍 Technical indicators and market sentiment · Momentum indicators are weak: The MACD indicator shows that bearish momentum is accelerating, while the RSI is below the neutral line of 50, confirming the current weak pattern in the market. · Divergence in on-chain funds: Although data shows that more than 24 million SOLs have been accumulated in the $188-190 range, forming a strong support base, it is also found that medium and long-term holders are selling on highs, and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator that measures the movement of large funds has turned negative, indicating that institutional buyers are not actively entering the market. This contradictory situation has exacerbated market volatility. 💡 News dynamic interpretation The news presents a complex situation of "good things come true and bad things happen". · Although the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) recorded an inflow of approximately US$69.5 million on its first day of listing, the price of SOL fell instead of rising, indicating that the market may have digested this expectation before, which is a "good news." · In addition, a "whale" address with a huge position was reported to have opened a long position in SOL with 10 times leverage. Although this type of high-leverage operation shows that it is optimistic about the market outlook, it also increases the risk of market liquidation and potential volatility. 🤔 Operation strategy reference · Short-term: Be cautious. You can pay attention to the opportunity for the price to rebound towards the support area of 188-192 US dollars to test long positions, and strictly set the stop loss below 188 US dollars. If the price rebounds to the resistance zone of 198-200 US dollars and the momentum weakens, it will be an opportunity to reduce positions or test short positions. · Medium and long term: Don’t rush to buy the bottom. It is recommended to wait patiently for a clear signal of stabilization near the key support of $188 (for example, the daily closing no longer hits a new low, or the trading volume is significantly increased) before considering the layout in batches. 💎 Summary and Outlook The short-term technical structure of SOL has obviously weakened, and the support strength of $188 is crucial. Once this position is lost, it may further drop to $184 or even $177. In the current market volatility, strict control of positions and setting clear stops are key to managing risk. The market needs new catalysts to reverse the current weak situation. Pay close attention to the performance of prices at key support levels. This article does not serve as any investment advice. It is only for reference to the unpredictable situation of the crypto market. Please be safe and secure. More real-time guidance ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️  |
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