English
83828
Judging from the latest market information, the effectiveness of ETH's support near $3,800 is facing a severe test:  1. Technical level - The price has dropped to the range of 3770-3800 US dollars many times, and has briefly stopped falling. However, the rebound has been weak and the trading volume has not significantly increased, indicating that buying is still cautious. - The short-term moving averages at the daily level are arranged in a short-term position, and MACD continues to increase volume below the zero axis, suggesting that the short-term momentum has not yet exhausted.； If the volume falls below $3,770 again, the short target may move down to the $3,500 area. 2. Money and emotions - Recently, there has been a net outflow of funds in the overall crypto market, and ETH has also been affected. The pressure of leverage liquidation has intensified short-term fluctuations. - Investor sentiment is on the sidelines, and the panic index is in the "cautious" range. If the external macro environment (USD interest rates, regulatory news) continues to be bearish, the probability of holding support will decrease. 3. Key observation signals - “"Hold" needs to be seen: 1) Changyang regained $3,900 with heavy volume at the 4-hour level； 2) Daily MACD appears bottom divergence or golden cross ； 3) Capital inflow indicators (such as net currency withdrawals from exchanges) turn positive. - If it falls below $3,770 and cannot be recovered within two hours, it can be considered an effective loss, and short-term stop loss orders may be accelerated. Conclusion: $3,800 is still a key watershed, but bears currently dominate, and the possibility of holding ≈ "medium to low". Spot holders should set a ladder stop loss (reduce positions below 3770, clear positions below 3650). Short positions should wait for heavy volume to reach 3900 before considering following up, rather than buying the bottom in advance. (The above is only technical analysis, not investment advice, please pay attention to risk control. )  |
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