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1. In the past two days, I played a hand in MegaEth’s prediction “MegaETH public sale total commitments”” When I first saw it, there were four levels, 1b/1.8b/3b/4b. The last one was 1b, with a winning rate of 90% and 10 points in settlement. Some friends also made a prediction of 1.8b. I didn’t think much of it at the time. Intuitively, 1b was more reliable, while 1.8b was more risky. The next day I thought about it, why not go to 1.8b, because then the winning rate is about 50%, the odds are 1:1, the risk is zero, and it is very uncomfortable to double the bet from zero. There are some differences between the prediction market and the secondary market. The main reason is that the elasticity is very weak. The closer to the settlement date, the more funds will tend to move towards the secondary market. When I was chatting with my friends, other opinions were that we can manage risks according to market fluctuations and move in and out quickly. The final result was that 1b was successfully hit, and the prediction of 1.1/1.2/1.3/1.4, which was newly opened by the market the next day, had a relatively negative impact on 1.8. Superimposed on market FUD (too much pledged funds, the rate of return may be very low), the winning rate of 1.8b quickly fell to the 10-20% range, and the partner's position suffered a significant loss. The final result is 1b/1.2b/1.2b settlement, and everything else returns to zero. I also have my own faults. In the last 24 hours, when the winning rate of 1.8b fell to 13%, I bought some zero positions. In the end, I felt that it was more. This kind of zero position should be invested with 3-5% of the 1b profit. 2. The market has been very cold recently, so take less action and observe more. It is more suitable to be a black slave, do some physical work and generate some positive cash flow. grateful Thanks to Xiaoxin for the kiwi fruit Thanks to Mi Shen and Bin Bin for helping solve the issue of megaeth account creation. Thanks to cj for helping to invest 1x |
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