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On September 18, the Rex-Oprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) was listed in the United States. The trading volume exceeded US$6 million in the first hour, far exceeding the expected US$2.5 million, pushing up the price of Dogecoin (DOGE) by nearly 10% to US$0.29. The wave of enthusiasm reflects strong demand for regulated memecoin products from retail investors and institutions, and market sentiment is high.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing more DOGE ETF applications, and the ruling in mid-October may further catalyze the inflow of institutional funds and consolidate DOGE’s mainstream status.
ETF debut hot: $6 million ignites the market
- First-hour performance: The trading volume of DOJE ETF in the first hour after opening reached US$6 million, with a cumulative total of US$17 million on the first day, ranking among the top five ETF launches in 2025, showing the huge potential of meme currency investment.
- Price reaction: Driven by ETF buying and FOMO sentiment, DOGE price rose nearly 10% during the day, testing the upper track of the $0.29 parallel channel (Ali Martinez predicts that it can reach $0.36-0.45 after a breakthrough).
- Market Signal: High “natural” trading volume (not promotion-driven) reflects real demand, similar to the $38 million boom on the first day of the XRP ETF (XRPR), validating the market appeal of altcoin ETFs.
Institutional interest heats up: SEC review takes center stage
- Regulatory outlook: The SEC is evaluating DOGE ETF applications submitted by asset managers such as Bitwise and is expected to make a decision in mid-October. If approved, there will be a further influx of institutional funds, enhancing liquidity and reducing volatility.
- Institutional significance: ETFs provide compliant structures and custody solutions to attract long-term capital. The success of DOJE shows that asset management companies are optimistic about the traditional financial potential of meme coins, which may push advisors and institutions to increase allocations.
- Spillover effect: ETH ETF’s single-day inflow of US$213 million and Solana’s institutional holdings of 15.83 million SOL showed the acceleration of the mainstreaming of the crypto market and provided external momentum for DOGE.
Market Impact and Technology Outlook
- Direct impact: The first-hour trading volume of US$6 million accelerated DOJE's daily target of US$17 million, increased the probability of subsequent ETF approval, pushed up DOGE prices and strengthened the support of US$0.263 (0.382 Fibonacci level).
- Technical analysis: DOGE tested resistance at $0.29 (upper track of the parallel channel on the hourly chart) and held support at $0.263 three times. If it breaks through $0.29, the short-term target is $0.36-0.45. ； If it fails, it may retrace to $0.24.
- Whale assistance: This week giant whales (100 million-1 billion DOGE) increased their holdings by 910 million DOGE (approximately US$250 million), similar to the accumulation before the inflow of 970 million DOGE in January, enhancing bullish confidence.
Risks and Cautions
- Volatility risk: The price surge after the ETF’s debut may trigger a correction, similar to the adjustment after the listing of the BTC ETF (outflow of 51.28 million on September 18). DOGE market depth is limited, so short-term fluctuations require caution.
- Regulatory uncertainty: The outcome of the SEC review will determine the intensity of institutional participation. If delayed or rejected, it may weaken the rally.
- Selling pressure: Super large whales recently sold 680 million coins, and the RSI is close to 50 (neutral), suggesting short-term consolidation risks.
Key takeaways
- Strong start: DOJE ETF’s trading volume was US$6 million in the first hour, exceeding expectations by 2.5 million, pushing DOGE price up by 10%.
- Institutional Catalysis: The SEC’s mid-October ruling on the DOGE ETF will affect capital inflows and long-term stability.
- Price potential: Breaking through $0.29 can reach $0.36-0.45, and support at $0.263 is the key line of defense.
in conclusion
The Rex-Osprey Dogecoin ETF’s trading volume of $6 million in the first hour triggered a 10% price surge, highlighting the appeal of meme coins in regulated markets. Whales increased their holdings by 910 million, the ETF craze and SEC review have injected strong momentum into DOGE, breaking through $0.29 or starting a rise of $0.36-0.45.
#Currency Circle#BTC#ETH#Cryptocurrency#Dogecoin#Altcoin
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