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In the early hours of this morning, the already weak crypto market once again followed the decline of US stocks (following the decline but not rising). It was not until the US stock market closed at 4 o'clock in the morning that it stopped falling and stabilized. The trend of ETH is weaker than that of BTC. In recent days, it has dropped from 4251 to 3676 (nearly US$600). It has reached the bottom for the third time after the 10.11 plunge and once again sought support in the 3650-3700 area.  Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, contracts across the entire cryptocurrency market have been liquidated to US$1.083 billion, of which 952 million were liquidated for long orders and 132 million were liquidated for short orders. The total liquidation amount of BTC was US$424 million, and the total liquidation amount of ETH was US$217 million.  The greed and panic index returned to 29, entering a state of panic again. Unlike October 11, there was no sound this time. Why? Because dead people cannot speak. Here comes the key point, will it rise or fall next?  Let me talk about the conclusion first. I think it is an increase. The reasons are as follows: 1. The current price of ETH has returned to above 3850, confirming that this support is effective. Generally speaking, the more times the bottom is confirmed, the more effective the support is.  2. According to the ETH exchange liquidation map, all long positions between 4251 and 3676 have been liquidated in the past few days. As shown in the chart below, the current price has reached 4223 and has accumulated 4.868 billion short positions to be liquidated. The price moving to the right is the path of least resistance.  3. For options delivery at 16:00 this afternoon, the biggest pain point price of ETH is 4100. Obviously, the spot price should be aligned with the biggest pain point.  4. BMNR is buying lows in large amounts every day According to Onchain Lens monitoring, two newly created wallets received 44,036 ETH from Kraken and BitGo, worth $166.76 million. These wallets likely belong to Bitmine. 5. The financial reports of crypto concept stocks, leading micro-strategies and coinbase, all exceeded expectations. According to Bloomberg, Strategy Inc (formerly MicroStrategy) returned to profitability in the third quarter, with a net profit of US$2.8 billion (US$8.42 per share), turning from a loss to a profit year-on-year, mainly driven by unrealized gains from changes in the fair value of its Bitcoin position of approximately US$69 billion. During the same period, the company's traditional enterprise software business revenue increased by 11% to US$128.7 million. Despite this, Strategy's stock price has fallen by about 45% from its high in November last year. The market has questioned its financing structure and the pace of Bitcoin purchases. The company's preferred stock issuance demand has been weak, and the pace of currency purchases has also slowed down. ； Strategy said it is advancing plans to issue credit securities overseas. Coinbase reported a net profit of US$433 million, or US$1.50 per share, in the third quarter of 2025, a significant increase from US$75.5 million in the same period last year, mainly due to increased trading volume driven by increased volatility in the digital asset market. Trading revenue for the quarter reached US$1.05 billion, a significant increase from US$573 million in the same period last year. Although weak economic data in August triggered a market sell-off, overall volatility still prompted investors to increase hedging operations, thereby improving the exchange's business performance. Coinbase shares rose 1% in after-hours trading after the earnings report was released. 6. The micro-strategy stock price resonates with the bottom of BTC. The current micro-strategy price is close to the low of February-April 2025, which also indicates that the current price of BTC is the same as the low of April 2025.  This feature can also be verified through the Greed and Panic Index. The current values are also in panic compared to February to April 2025.  7. At the all-core developer conference call yesterday (Thursday), ETH Foundation researchers stated that Fusaka will be officially launched on December 3. This is also a catalyst for prices.  8. Take another look at the market macro environment After the meeting between Trump and the Chinese side at Busan Airport for just over an hour, he immediately took Air Force One back to the United States, instead of attending the APEC summit that starts tomorrow. This is because he is anxious to go back and deal with the government shutdown. As of today, the U.S. government has been shut down for 30 days, which is the second longest in history, second only to the 35 days of Trump’s previous term. If it continues like this, it will soon break the record and become the longest. Trump’s choice shows that the urgency of domestic politics and the intensification of party disputes require him to put aside important diplomatic occasions and return directly to the country to deal with the political crisis. For Trump, diplomatic results are closely linked to domestic party struggles. How to transform diplomatic results into domestic political capital has become his current key task. The government shutdown is another manifestation of the intensified partisanship in the United States. During this period, the two parties have held more than ten rounds of talks. The contradiction is that the Democratic Party wants to add the Affordable Care Act to the budget and Trump is firmly opposed to it. Next, Trump may force a budget through to keep the government open while maintaining his hard-line persona. He has already said that Democrats will pay a price for this. Upon his return, Trump is likely to use the diplomatic results of his meeting with Xi as leverage to pressure Democrats to compromise in order to pass a budget and end the government shutdown. The end of the government shutdown is a major benefit to the crypto market. Finally, the picture below became popular yesterday. After comparison, it was found that the two best targets in the crypto market actually ranked at the bottom of the world's important indexes. Moreover, this is not an ordinary outrage in the so-called four-year crypto bull market cycle.  Final summary: After the 10.11 crash, the entire market needs time to repair. We are still in the aftershock period after the big crash, there are too many floating chips, and the chips for retaliatory openings have not been cleaned yet. It is still in a period of shock, and after the shock is over, there will be a decent rise. Don't be emo just because U.S. stocks are rising. The transmission of monetary easing takes time. The crypto market will keep up, that’s how money cycles. What is going to happen next is: the one left is the king, and the person who stays at the table has won half the battle. About the author: “"Xingyang Talks about the New Narrative of Encryption" is dedicated to the research of new narratives in the encryption industry. The manager has more than 8 years of industry experience, experienced two bull markets in 2017 and 2021, and gained dozens of times in profits. Since the intervention of BlackRock and other institutions on January 10, 2024, the four-year bull-bear cycle has begun to become blurred, and the indicators of bottom-buying and top-escape that retail investors have tried repeatedly in the past have also become ineffective, making the market difficult to grasp. 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