Dogecoin suddenly plunges 7.5% to $0.18: Is it a technical correction or a sign of a trend reversal?

Despite expectations for a rally in the fourth quarter, Dogecoin's market structure remains fragile, with traders watching to see if it can hold on to its $0.18 bottom.

what you need to know：

• Dogecoin fell 6.8%, falling below the $0.18 support level due to heavy whale outflows and increased trading activity.
• On-chain data shows that more than $29 million in large transactions, including a huge transfer to Binance, caused the price to drop.
• Despite expectations for a rally in the fourth quarter, Dogecoin's market structure remains fragile, with traders watching to see if it can hold on to its $0.18 bottom.

news background

• Dogecoin (DOGE) fell sharply from $0.1934 to $0.1803 in 24 hours, a drop of 8.9%, breaking multiple support levels. Meanwhile, Dogecoin’s trading volume soared 44% from its seven-day average, recording one of the largest single-day volume increases this month.
• On-chain data shows that more than $29 million in large transactions occurred during the crash phase, including a $26.8 million transfer from a dormant whale address to Binance, which coincided with the largest volume spike during the trading period.
• Dogecoin (DOGE) underperformed by 3.25% relative to the broader cryptocurrency market, highlighting industry rotation and profit-taking behavior among institutional players despite elevated risk appetite across major assets.

Price action summary

• The price has formed a series of lower highs since the high of $0.1972, confirming the exhaustion of the previous upward momentum. Support emerged near the $0.1780 to $0.1800 range, where buyers briefly stabilized the price.

• Whale trading activity dominated order flow throughout the trading session, with each rejection attempt accelerating the flow of orders into the exchange.
• The timing of these transfers perfectly coincides with the surge in intraday trading volume, validating their impact on Dogecoin’s downward trend.

technical analysis

• Dogecoin’s structure shows clear signs of turning into a distribution phase, with the momentum oscillator turning bearish and the price failing to rebound from broken support.
• A break below $0.18 marks the failure of the short-term rising wedge pattern and confirms the continuation of the downtrend. Volume analysis shows institutional investors have begun buying, with volume of $1.17 billion 44% higher than the weekly average.
• Technical resistance has formed between $0.1950 and $0.1970, while immediate support is now near $0.1780 to $0.1800.
• Total intraday moves were 8.9%, highlighting volatility consistent with unwinding leveraged positions.
• Momentum divergence persists on the lower time frames, indicating that if current levels fail to hold, the price could fall further towards the $0.166 area.

What traders are paying attention to

• Traders are focused on whether Dogecoin can hold support at $0.18 after multiple sell-offs led by large traders. Dogecoin’s rebound towards $0.181 to $0.182 is expected to encounter selling pressure, with liquidity likely to concentrate below previous resistance levels.
• Derivatives data showed futures open interest is down 61% from October highs, suggesting leveraged players are exiting but a re-accumulation has not yet been confirmed.
• Despite optimism about the meme coin's rise in Q4, Dogecoin's market structure remains fragile, and sentiment will tilt toward the defensive in the short term until it is confirmed to regain technical stability above $0.19.