Bitcoin hits 3.4 million in 3 years?

Nakamoto 2025-9-25 03:46 50943人围观 BTC

At the recent KBW 2025 Summit in South Korea, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, put forward a view that is enough to subvert market perception: By 2028, the price of Bitcoin may soar to $3.4 million. The current

At the recent KBW 2025 Summit in South Korea, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, put forward a point of view that is enough to subvert market perception: By 2028, the price of Bitcoin may soar to US$3.4 million.

The current price of Bitcoin is only over 110,000 US dollars. If the target can be achieved, it means that it will achieve an increase of nearly 31 times in just 3 years.

Hayes's prediction is not a castle in the air, but is based on an in-depth dissection of the changes in the global legal currency system, liquidity cycles and asset scarcity.

The era of fiscal dominance: Why printing money has become an "inevitable choice"”

To understand the price logic of Bitcoin, we first need to see clearly the underlying contradictions of the global macroeconomics, the vicious cycle of fiscal expansion and excessive currency issuance, which is also the core cornerstone of Hayes' prediction.

From a historical perspective, large-scale money printing is often closely tied to “crisis response”:

After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing (QE)；

During the 2020 epidemic, central banks around the world collectively "released water", and the U.S. M2 money supply surged by 20% in half a year.

Nowadays, the new "money printing trigger" has gradually become clear - the dual pressure of military expansion and debt pressure.

U.S. military spending is entering a new expansion cycle.

According to the 2025 budget draft of the US Department of Defense, its annual military budget has exceeded US$900 billion, accounting for more than 40% of the total global military expenditure. If the Trump administration returns to power, the previously proposed plan to "strengthen the global deployment of US military" may be implemented, which means that the demand for military spending will further expand.

Historical experience shows that a surge in military spending is often accompanied by an increase in currency issuance:

During World War II, the United States issued additional currency to support war expenses, causing the postwar inflation rate to once exceed 20%.；

During the Vietnam War, the "guns and butter" policy also triggered a decade of stagflation.

The U.S. debt crisis has reached a "tipping point."

As of May 2025, the scale of U.S. federal debt has exceeded US$40 trillion, equivalent to 130% of GDP, far exceeding the international security warning line of 60%.

What's even more troublesome is that debt interest payments have become a "heavy financial burden." In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. debt interest payments reached 850 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 4.2% of GDP. This proportion has exceeded financial investment in education, medical care and other areas of people's livelihood.

Against this background, the U.S. Treasury Department’s “hidden money printing” is accelerating. On the surface, the Fed has maintained its interest rate hike cycle since 2023 and appears to be shrinking liquidity ； But in fact, through the combined operation of "issuing short-term government bonds + adjusting the overnight reverse repurchase rate", the Ministry of Finance injected liquidity into the market far beyond the QE period.

Data show that in the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. Treasury Department injected a net US$1.2 trillion into the market through the issuance of Treasury bonds. However, at the peak of QE during the epidemic in 2020, the Fed's monthly bond purchases were only US$120 billion. This kind of "fiscal-led" liquidity injection is still essentially "disguised money printing" and will eventually push up asset prices. This is one of the core logics of Hayes' prediction.

Bitcoin’s “Scarcity Moat”: Why Can It Fight the Flood of Fiat Currencies?

When the global legal currency enters the "unlimited supply" mode, fixed-supply assets will become scarce, and Bitcoin is the perfect carrier of this logic.

Bitcoin’s “constant total amount” feature is its core competitiveness.

The total number of Bitcoins is fixed at 21 million. About 19.5 million have been mined so far, and the remaining 1.5 million will be gradually mined over the next 120 years. More importantly, Bitcoin experiences a "halving" every four years, that is, the block reward is reduced by half. After the halving in 2024, only 160,000 new Bitcoins will be added every year, equivalent to 0.8% of the current circulation.

The “rush” for institutional funds is further exacerbating Bitcoin’s scarcity.

Since the United States approved the Bitcoin ETF in 2024, the size of institutional holdings has grown explosively:

As of May 2025, the total global Bitcoin ETF holdings reached 1.25 million, accounting for 6.4% of the circulation. Among them, MicroStrategy (renamed Strategy), as a "Bitcoin giant", has accumulated a position of 632,000 Bitcoins, with a cost price of about US$73,000, and is still "buying more and more as they go up." In the first quarter of 2025, the company spent another US$500 million to increase its holdings of 4,500 Bitcoins.

In addition to enterprises, traditional financial institutions are also accelerating their entry:

Standard Chartered Bank reiterated in its April 2025 report that "the price of Bitcoin will reach US$200,000 by the end of 2025" and expected institutional buying to account for 80% of the new supply of Bitcoin throughout the year.；

JPMorgan Chase even launched “Bitcoin-linked financial products”, which are open to high-net-worth customers. The fundraising scale exceeded US$1 billion in the first month.

Judging from on-chain data, Bitcoin’s “liquidity is being drained.”

As of May 2025, long-term Bitcoin holders (holding positions for more than 1 year) accounted for 82%, a record high； The proportion of positions held by short-term traders (holding positions for less than 30 days) is only 9%, which is at a low level in the past five years.

This means that most Bitcoins have been "locked up" and the number of circulating chips in the market continues to decrease. In this situation of "supply exceeds demand", once liquidity is injected, prices can easily rise explosively.

Hayes compared Bitcoin to "Noah's Ark" precisely because of its fixed supply characteristics: "When central banks in various countries use money printing machines to dilute the value of legal tender, the total amount of 21 million Bitcoins is the 'hard currency' to fight inflation. ”

This logic has been proven historically. During the 2020 epidemic, the United States launched a US$3 trillion economic stimulus plan. During the same period, the price of Bitcoin rose from US$4,000 to US$69,000, an increase of 16 times. ； After the U.S. Treasury added $1.2 trillion in liquidity in 2024, the price of Bitcoin rose from $25,000 to $110,000, an increase of 340%.

Smart money’s “advance layout”: Bitcoin strategy from enterprises to countries

The market has never lacked "foreseeers". Before Hayes made his prediction, "smart money" around the world had begun to focus on Bitcoin. Their actions covered enterprises, financial institutions and even national levels, forming a trend that cannot be ignored.

“"Hoarding coins" has become a "financial strategy" for some companies.

In addition to MicroStrategy, technology giants such as Tesla and Microsoft are also quietly increasing their holdings of Bitcoin:

In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla increased its Bitcoin holdings from 15,000 to 22,000 as a “supplement to foreign exchange reserves.””；

Microsoft has launched a “Bitcoin Pay Employee Salary” option, allowing employees to convert 10% of their salary into Bitcoin.

The actions of these companies essentially regard Bitcoin as an "asset reserve against the depreciation of legal currency." Microsoft’s CFO said at the earnings conference, “Holding Bitcoin can hedge the risk of U.S. dollar depreciation, which is an important step in our diversified asset allocation. ”

Traditional banks are breaking away from their “hostility to cryptocurrencies” and moving toward “active embracement.”

In addition to Standard Chartered Bank and JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Group will launch "Bitcoin Custody Service" in March 2025 to provide Bitcoin storage and trading services for institutional clients such as hedge funds and family offices.；

Bank of America issued a report stating that "Bitcoin has become 'digital gold' and it is expected that 10% of gold allocation funds will be transferred to Bitcoin in the next five years."

The entry of these institutions not only brings incremental funds to Bitcoin, but also enhances its "financial legitimacy" and gradually moves from a fringe asset to a mainstream asset.

What deserves more attention is “Bitcoin actions at the national level.”

In April 2025, it was reported that the Trump team was studying "using confiscated overseas assets to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve" and planned to convert some of the confiscated Russian and Iranian assets into Bitcoin as a "supplementary reserve in addition to the US dollar." Although this plan has not yet been implemented, it has released an important signal: some countries have begun to regard Bitcoin as a "tool to circumvent the hegemony of the US dollar."

In addition, countries such as El Salvador and the Central African Republic that have designated Bitcoin as legal tender will increase their holdings of Bitcoin again in the first quarter of 2025. The central bank’s holdings of El Salvador increased from 2,300 to 3,500, while the Central African Republic included Bitcoin in the “national foreign exchange reserves”, accounting for 5%.

These layouts are not accidental, but are based on the judgment of "changes in the global monetary system."

As Hayes said: “When the credit of the U.S. dollar continues to decline, Bitcoin will become the ‘backup option’ for global capital – whether companies, institutions or countries, they need an asset that is not controlled by a single central bank, and Bitcoin just meets this need. ”

Changes in global capital flows: Why Bitcoin can become a “capital lifeboat””

Hayes' forecast is not only based on U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, but also takes into account "structural changes in global capital flows." This dimension is often ignored by the market, but it is an important driver of the rise in Bitcoin prices.

Currently, global capital flows are facing a critical turning point:

Foreign investors' interest in U.S. Treasuries cools.

In the past 20 years, U.S. Treasury bonds, as the "safest asset in the world," have attracted a large inflow of foreign capital. China, Japan and other countries were once the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds.

But since 2023, foreign investors have continued to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds:

In the first quarter of 2025, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds fell from $7.5 trillion to $6.8 trillion, the lowest level since 2009. Among them, China reduced its holdings by US$120 billion, Japan reduced its holdings by US$80 billion, and Saudi Arabia reduced its holdings by US$50 billion.

The reason why foreign investors are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries is simple:

The credit decline of the US dollar and the attractiveness of yields have declined.

The scale of U.S. debt continues to expand, causing foreign investors to worry about the risk of U.S. debt default”；

The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds will remain at around 4.5% in 2025, while the yield on Chinese government bonds reached 3.2% and the yield on German government bonds reached 2.8% during the same period. Coupled with the risk of U.S. dollar exchange rate fluctuations, the "price-performance ratio" of U.S. Treasury bonds is declining.

In this context, the advantages of Bitcoin are highlighted:

It is an asset with “no borders, no sovereign endorsement, and a fixed total amount.” It is not controlled by any country’s central bank and will not depreciate due to the debt crisis of a single country.

Therefore, Hayes calls Bitcoin "the lifeboat of global capital": "When foreign capital leaves the U.S. Treasury market, they need an asset that can both maintain value and flow freely - gold is the traditional choice, but Bitcoin has better liquidity, more convenient transfers, and is more suitable for the capital flow needs of the digital era. ”

This logic has been partially verified by data:

In the first quarter of 2025, when foreign investors reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, Bitcoin's "cross-border transfer scale" increased by 85% year-on-year, of which capital inflows from the Middle East and Southeast Asia accounted for 30%. This shows that some of the capital withdrawing from U.S. Treasury bonds has begun to flow into the Bitcoin market. Although the scale is currently small, the trend has gradually emerged.

A rational view of the “$3.4 million forecast”: opportunities and risks coexist

Although there is a complete logical chain behind Hayes' prediction, and many "good signals" have appeared in the market, we still need to look at it rationally.

For ordinary investors, it is more important to "understand logic rather than being superstitious about numbers."

Hayes's $3.4 million forecast is essentially an extreme deduction of the logic of "liquidity flooding + asset scarcity". Its core value is to remind us that in the context of the decline in global fiat currency credit, fixed-supply assets are worthy of attention.

However, when investing in Bitcoin, you need to consider your own risk tolerance. Bitcoin is suitable as "part of the asset allocation" rather than "investing all your wealth."

As Howard Marks, founder of Oaktree Capital, said: “The key to investing is not to predict the future, but to deal with the future—finding a balance between risk and return amid uncertainty. ”

Conclusion: The future of Bitcoin is more than just “price numbers””

When we discuss whether Bitcoin can reach $3.4 million, we should actually pay more attention to the "meaning of the times" behind it.

The rise of Bitcoin is essentially a microcosm of the changes in the global financial system:

From "fiat currency dominance" to "decentralized asset supplement", from "single sovereign credit" to "multi-asset allocation".

For the market, the rise and fall of Bitcoin's price is just a symptom. The technological innovation, institutional changes and capital flows behind it are the key to determining the future.

Regardless of whether the Bitcoin price reaches $3.4 million in 2028, we are already in an era of "asset diversification." Understanding the logic of this era is more important than chasing a number.

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