BTC stuck at 110,000? I stared at the on-chain data for 7 days and found that whales were laying out a big picture.

Nakamoto 2025-11-1 18:40 42594人围观 BTC

This sentence hit the pain point of many newbies recently: BTC has been grinding for almost a month, why can't it break through 110,000? Is the bull market really over? ”

In fact, the answer is not in the K-line chart at all, but in the on-chain data that most people ignore. Especially after the sharp drop on October 11, the actions of those heavily armed "whales" (addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC) have changed, and there have even been changes similar to those before the black swan in 2022. This content is a must-read for novices. Understanding it can help you avoid losing a house.

Whale's "abnormal signal": Sleeping address suddenly "resurrected"”

After doing crypto analysis for 3 years, I have always believed in a saying: "Retail investors look at prices, and large investors look at positions." For the past half year, the wallets of whales have basically been in a "hibernation state", and the super addresses holding more than 14,000 BTC have remained motionless. This stable state has given the market a basis for slow growth. But after the sharp drop on October 11, the trend completely changed.

The on-chain browser shows that in the past week, more than 30 "hardcore addresses" that have been dormant for more than 2 years have been activated, and 5 of them have been dormant for more than 5 years. You must know that the owners of these addresses are most likely early miners or institutions, and they usually do not move their positions at all. Once activated, there will definitely be big moves. What is even more alarming is that the head address holding 14,000 BTC (currently valued at about $1.6 billion) had a transfer record for the first time on October 14. This is the first time this year.

The most direct selling signal appeared on October 15: 17,200 BTC were transferred to the exchange in a single day, and the single-day inflow reached a new high in October, worth nearly US$200 million based on the average price at that time. There may be novices who don’t understand the logic here. Let me use the stock market as an analogy: it’s like if you transfer all the cash in the bank to a securities account, there is a 99% probability that you will clear your position and leave the market. The large amount of BTC pouring into the exchange is essentially a concentrated selling by large investors. This is also the core reason why BTC cannot break through 110,000 - the selling pressure is much greater than the buying pressure, and if it goes up, it will be smashed down.

3 "life-saving suggestions" for novices, I bought them with real money

Combined with the current on-chain signals, I don’t want to talk empty words, but directly give 3 operational suggestions that can be implemented, especially the third one, which helped me avoid a 30% plunge last year:

1. Don’t be a “taker” at the 110,000 mark. Now that the selling pressure from large investors has not been released, BTC will be smashed every time it touches more than 108,000. At this time, rushing in with a full position is to give money to large investors. My approach is to divide the position into 3 parts. Only when it exceeds 112,000 and stands firm for 3 days, will the first position be added.

2. Keep an eye on the core indicator "net inflow into exchanges". Novices don't need to look at complicated indicators, just spend 5 minutes every day checking the net inflow data of BTC into exchanges (Glassnode is recommended). If the net inflow exceeds 5,000 coins for three consecutive days, it means that the selling pressure is still there and you should continue to wait and see. ； If the net inflow turns negative, it means that large investors have begun to accumulate funds and will look for opportunities to enter the market at this time.

3. Always keep a "backhand" position. This is the principle I value most. Even if you are optimistic about the market, don't invest all your principal. For example, if you have 10,000 U, you can use up to 3,000 U to buy BTC, and keep the remaining 7,000 U. Even if there is a big black swan, you still have funds to buy the bottom, instead of watching your position being cut in half.