Will BTC become worthless?

Nakamoto 2025-11-1 19:00 13625人围观 BTC

Whether BTC will become worthless requires a comprehensive analysis from multiple dimensions such as its core value, market dynamics, technical risks and macro environment. Combining the latest data and trends currently (November 2025), the following are

Will BTC become worthless?
It needs to be comprehensively analyzed from multiple dimensions such as its core value, market dynamics, technical risks and macro environment. Combined with the latest data and trends currently (November 2025), the following are the key conclusions:
1. Core value support: decentralized trust and scarcity
The underlying value of BTC comes from its decentralized trust mechanism and fixed supply design (21 million upper limit), which gives it a "super-sovereign asset" attribute similar to gold in the digital age. Even if the global financial system collapses, the BTC network can still function as long as the Internet and computing power exist. As of 2025, there are more than 15,000 BTC nodes around the world, distributed in 180 countries, forming a strong anti-censorship capability. Historical cases also prove that when a country's credit collapses (such as regime change in Afghanistan and conflicts in the Middle East), BTC's trading volume will surge, becoming an alternative trading medium in an "institutional vacuum".
From the perspective of supply and demand, after the halving in 2024, the daily output of BTC dropped from 900 to 450, and the annual inflation rate fell below 1% for the first time, which is lower than the traditional inflation level of gold. Institutional demand continues to explode. In 2025, the global BTC spot ETF management scale will reach 169.48 billion US dollars, with listed companies holding more than 1 million units, and the supply and demand gap will reach 7.4 times. This contradiction between rigid supply and the “big appetite” of institutions provides long-term value support for BTC.
2. Market and institutional adoption: from fringe to mainstream
In 2025, the mainstream recognition of BTC will increase significantly, and the user base and liquidity structure will undergo qualitative changes:
User scale: About 106 million people around the world hold BTC, of which 157,000 addresses hold positions exceeding US$1 million, forming a high-net-worth circle.
Institutional funds: Institutional holdings amount to US$414 billion. Asset management giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity have included BTC in compliant investment portfolios through ETFs. Long-term funds such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds have accelerated their entry into the market.
Application scenarios: 64 jurisdictions around the world have promoted digital asset legislation, the usage rate of encrypted payments has increased by 45%, and half of small and medium-sized enterprises have accepted BTC or stable currency payments.
On-chain data also confirms market resilience: In the third quarter of 2025, BTC processed more than 500,000 transactions per day, and the average daily transaction volume of the entire chain reached US$28.46 billion. Despite the trend of address concentration, liquidity remains stable. Long-term holders (holding coins for more than a year) have locked in 74% of the supply, forming a "reluctance to sell" effect.
3. Technical Risks and Responses: Quantum Computing and Capacity Expansion
The technical risks faced by BTC mainly come from the potential threats of quantum computing and the pressure of network expansion, but there are already countermeasures:
Quantum computing: IBM achieved 120 qubit entanglement in October 2025. Although it does not directly threaten the security of BTC, Deloitte research shows that about 25% of BTC may be exposed to the risk of quantum attacks. The industry is advancing quantum-resistant address upgrades (such as Schnorr signatures) and is expected to complete core network transformation by 2026.
Scaling and efficiency: Lightning Network compresses transaction confirmation time to seconds, significantly reducing transaction costs. As of 2025, the number of Lightning Network nodes has exceeded 18,000, and the channel capacity has exceeded 5,400 BTC, supporting cross-border payments, micro-transactions and other scenarios.
4. Supervision and Macro-Environment: Differentiation and Game
The global regulatory landscape shows a differentiated but stable trend:
United States: Regulation has turned supportive, the FDIC has allowed banks to participate in crypto businesses, capital inflows have accelerated after the passage of spot ETFs, and BTC has risen 35% since the policy was enacted.
European Union: The Crypto Asset Market Regulation (MiCA) is fully implemented, requiring issuers of stablecoins to hold equivalent low-risk assets to prevent risks and protect the sovereignty of the euro.
China: Insists on the non-legal currency status of cryptocurrencies, but explores "categorized governance", allows for the compliance disposal of some assets involved, and replaces the need for encryption with digital renminbi.
In terms of macroeconomics, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has boosted risk appetite. As a "digital gold", the inverse relationship between BTC and the US dollar index remains solid. In the third quarter of 2025, BTC showed some resilience when U.S. technology stocks plummeted, showing that its correlation with traditional markets has increased, but it has not completely lost its independence.
5. Zero risk assessment: low probability but need to be vigilant
Although BTC has multiple value supports, its zero risk still exists, mainly due to the following extreme scenarios:
Global network paralysis: If nuclear war, super viruses and other events cause the Internet and computing power network to collapse, BTC will not be able to operate. The probability of such a scenario is extremely low (<5%).
Global coordinated regulation: If major economies such as China, the United States, and Europe coordinate to completely ban BTC trading, holding, and use, and impose severe sanctions, it may lead to liquidity depletion. However, the current regulatory trend is to "regulate rather than block", and the probability of such a scenario is low (0%-1.3%).
Technical breakthroughs and liquidity crisis: Quantum attacks successfully crack the private key, large-scale private key loss (about 11%-18% BTC has been permanently lost), or a price spiral caused by leveraged liquidation may lead to a short-term plunge, but it may still recover in the long term.
6. Conclusion: The possibility of returning to zero is extremely low, and long-term value revaluation is in progress.
Taken together, the probability of BTC returning to zero is extremely low, and its decentralized trust mechanism, scarcity and institutional adoption form a solid value base. Market performance and technological progress in 2025 further validate its potential as “digital gold”:
Short term: Affected by macro policies and market sentiment, BTC may experience violent fluctuations (such as a single-day plunge of 8% in October 2025), but ETF capital inflows and the "coin hoarding" behavior of long-term holders provide a buffer.
Long-term: As the halving effect deepens, anti-quantum technology is implemented and the regulatory framework is improved, BTC’s “digital gold” narrative will be further strengthened. HC Wainwright and other institutions predict that the price of BTC may exceed US$225,000 by the end of 2025, with the market value approaching gold (approximately US$13 trillion).
Core variables that investors need to pay attention to include: regulatory policy uncertainty, quantum computing progress, the actual usage rate of the Lightning Network, and changes in the correlation between BTC and traditional markets. For ordinary investors, BTC is more suitable as a small part of a diversified asset allocation, rather than as a bet for all your wealth.