BTC investment record

Nakamoto 2025-11-2 02:36 20750人围观 BTC

[Full text generated by AI] Which period of the bull market is BTC currently in? In the short cycle (the 16-day, one-month band you mentioned), who is pushing and who is suppressing? From now in November → until the Federal Reserve actually starts to cut

[Full text is generated by AI]

Which phase of the bull market is BTC currently in?
In the short cycle (the 16-day, one-month band you mentioned), who is pushing and who is suppressing?
From now in November → until the Federal Reserve actually starts to cut interest rates next time, what are the key points to focus on in the past few months and how to trade?

1. BTC is now in the "fluctuation period in the second half of the bull market" (it may be a period of shock and decline, which is more likely - author's note)

Let’s talk about the conclusion first:

The current (November 2025) BTC position is most similar to the position from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, but the pace will be slower. (It looks like the macro environment, but market expectations have been completed)

Why do you say that?

1. Macro position: from “to be loose” to “not really wide yet””

Now everyone knows that the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates, but it hasn’t really dropped significantly yet. (There may not be a significant interest rate cut - author's note)
This is a bit like the situation in 2020 when the epidemic situation was just released but not yet fully relaxed: expectations are already ahead, and liquidity is still on the way.
So the price pattern you see is: it can rise, but as soon as it reaches near the historical high (currently the $110,000 line), there will immediately be profit orders, miner orders, and selling pressure of "you have risen this far, I will be the first to bet".

That is to say:

👉 This is not the top range, but this is the range where you need to be able to "do swings".

This is no longer the stage where you can earn 10 times a year with your eyes closed.

2. Which period is most similar to history?

Not at the end of 2017 (it was a pure emotional bubble at that time, and all retail investors on the chain poured in)；
Nor is it the 2018 bear market (external liquidity does not support bears now)；
It’s even less like 2022 (when the Federal Reserve violently raises interest rates)；
**On the contrary, it is like 2020.10 – 2021.3: The general direction is upward, but in the middle, a weekly line will often give you -15%, forcing you to get off.

So we can give this stage a name:

“The high turnover period after the bull market (pre-easing stage)”

General direction: 🟢 Medium-term fluctuations, if there is no room for interest rate cuts in the future, it may be at the end of the bull market.

Fluctuation: ⚠️ getting bigger

Method: ❌ Not suitable for mindlessly taking full positions

Suitable for: ✅ Do "sell high and buy low + keep core positions based on momentum and short cycles"”

2. Expectations of future interest rate easing in the United States

Okay, let’s do a qualitative + quantitative deduction together: what is the current pace of subsequent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve), and what is the possible downside to the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield (hereinafter referred to as the “30 Y yield”) if the rate cut is really implemented gradually.

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🔍 Overview of current situation

- The current 30 Y yield is about 4.6% (recent data is 4.58%) (fred.stlouisfed.org).

- The Federal Reserve's policy interest rate (federal funds rate) remains at a high level, and although inflation has eased, core inflation remains highly sticky.

- At the same time, although the market expects an interest rate cut, the "real interest rate cut cycle" has not yet fully started.

- Long-term bond yields are not only affected by policy interest rates, but also by "inflation expectations + real interest rates + term premium". (fredblog.stlouisfed.org)

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📉 Assumptions about the pace of interest rate cuts

We assume that the Federal Reserve will gradually start cutting interest rates in the future, based on the following possible paths:

In other words, the policy interest rate may fall from the current assumption of ~5% (assumed value) to around ~3% or lower in the next 1-2 years.

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🧮 Quantitative deduction of the downside space of 30Y yield

30 Y yield ≈ expected average short-term interest rate + inflation expectation + term premium.

We assume that during a rate cut cycle, all three move in a direction that favors falling yields.

Hypothetical variables

- Expected short-term interest rates average: currently assumed to be ~4.0%, falling to ~2.5% in the future.

- Inflation expectations: currently assumed to be ~3.0%, falling to ~2.0% in the future.

- Term premium: currently assumed to be ~0.5%, may fall to ~0.2% in the future.

extrapolate

If 30 Y yield = expected average short-term interest rate (2.5%) + inflation expectation (2.0%) + term premium (0.2%) ≈ 4.7%.

It is currently ~4.6%–4.7%, which is actually close to the above-mentioned hypothetical state.

But if the market further believes that inflation will fall to, say, 1.5%, real interest rates are expected to fall, and the term premium also falls further, then:

- Expected average short-term interest rates: 2.0%

- Inflation expectations: 1.5%

- Term premium: 0.1%

Total = 3.6%.

Therefore, under a more optimistic scenario, the 30 Y yield could theoretically fall back to the 3.5%–4.0% range.

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📊 Downside summary

- More conservative scenario: Yield drops from ~4.6% to ~4.0% → a decrease of approximately 60 bps.

- Optimistic scenario (inflation + term premium declines rapidly): It is possible to drop to ~3.5% or even ~3.0%, but this path is more difficult because fiscal supply, inflation stickiness, and term premium are difficult to reduce quickly.

- Note: If the economy performs strongly or fiscal supply becomes larger and the term premium continues to rise, yields may not go down or even rebound.

The core reason why it is not the Q1 quarter of 2020-2021 is that the space for this round of interest rate cuts is restricted (completely different from the unlimited QE in 2020).

3. Who is pushing and who is suppressing in the short cycle?

You made a very important observation earlier: BTC has a small fluctuation cycle of about 16 days.

This observation is valid. It is related to several things. Let’s take a look at them.

1. Driving force ①: “breathing” of derivatives positions”

BTC is no longer the spot market it was in 2013 and 2015. Position changes in futures, perpetuals, and options will directly affect the short-term rhythm.
Generally speaking, if leveraged funds accumulate for a week or two, they will be cleared and the price will form a "small top".
If you use ROC (16) to look at it, you will find that high ROC → it is easy to back off in the next 2 to 4 days. This is consistent with what you said about "staged big → sell".

2. Driving force ②: the rhythm of miners and long-term holders

At this current price (100,000+), miners are already profitable, so they will choose a higher price and reduce their positions.
This will cause a phenomenon: soon after it reaches a new high, there will be a group of organized sales "from miners + early chips", so you will think: "Why can't you always rush through?" ”
This is why it is reasonable to use "ROC fell back from its high level for two days → regarded as a staged top".

3. Driving force ③: Macro expected events

In short cycles, there is another type of false breakthrough or real event:

FOMC meeting
Non-farm, CPI
During the U.S. Treasury Auction, these prices will be pulled up or smashed on the daily level, and then prices will return to their original rhythm within a week or two.

So you have to remember one sentence:

The short cycle is created by the combination of derivatives + miners + macro calendar, not by pure technology.

This is why you can see the "rhythm" using ROC, but sometimes the rhythm is ahead/lags 2 to 3 days - that's because events are affecting it.

4. November → Four key points to keep an eye on before the next real interest rate cut

You asked the question correctly: This period is actually the easiest to make mistakes, because everyone knows that interest rates are going to be cut, but no one knows whether it will be this time or next time.

Therefore, in this period, we need to "keep an eye on the macro trigger points + follow the technical rhythm."

I’ll break it down into four points for you to focus on👇

① Will CPI/PCE fall off a cliff?

If inflation falls rapidly for two consecutive months, the market will price in more interest rate cuts in advance.；
Risk assets (including BTC) will have a market trend of "I've already risen before you actually fall"；
There is a lot to do in this section.
At this time, if you use the ROC model, you will find that bottom signals will appear more densely, indicating that "someone will buy even if you back down."

📌 Operation suggestions:

If the data in November and December are obviously leaning towards 2.x%, we will be more cautious and the top signal can be done less often.

② Dot plot / "Rhythm and tone of Fed officials' speeches"”

If officials start saying "higher for not much longer" (high interest rates will not last long), → the market will understand that "it will definitely drop before the middle of next year" → BTC will rebound first
If we still say "data dependent" (look at the data) → the market will hesitate → BTC will follow the repetitive structure of "up → sold → up again"

📌 Operation suggestions:

At this time, you must resolutely follow your rule of "three days before ROC turns around" and don't be lured into long/short positions by the K-line.

③ Will long-term U.S. bond yields continue to fall?

You have already asked a very professional question: "Why did the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond fall so slowly from 4.6%?" ”

This is the third point to look at in this paragraph:

If long-term interest rates fall quickly → it means that the market is no longer worried about "future growth and future inflation" → This is the way forward for BTC；
If the long-term interest rate cannot fall (for example, it is still between 4.5% and 4.8%) → it means that the market thinks "you want to cut interest rates, but you are doing it because the economy is weak, not because you can release money" → At this time, BTC will rise and be beaten down repeatedly.

📌 Operation suggestions:

In the week or two when long-term interest rates fall rapidly, you can make one or two more bottom signals than usual.；
If you can’t move → Just insist on “Only take action when there are top/bottom signals, and don’t do anything at other times.”

④ Have ETF/institutional buying orders come back?

This step is actually to see whether incremental funds have really come in.

If you see “ETF net inflows re-amplify + large transfers on the chain to exchanges decrease” from November to December, → it means this rise is a “real buy””；
On the other hand, if there are high-frequency battles in the exchange → it means it is still a game of stocks → then you have to rely on your 16-day rhythm to make money.

📌 One sentence version:

There is an increase → you can get it； No increment → only bands.

5. What to expect? (Give a more realistic road map)

Let me help you draw the most likely path (of course the one with the highest probability):

Now to early December:

The macroeconomic situation is still in the tug-of-war period of “should it really drop?”
BTC repeated highs
Your ROC model can catch 2 to 3 small bottoms
👉 Focus on the band, don’t add too much to the core warehouse

After December FOMC to the first quarter of 2026:

If the dot plot is revised downward, the market will confirm that "24-25 is not a one-time drop, but a series of drops."”
This is a phased upward trend
👉 This period can be "signal buying + no rush to sell", using a longer ROC period (such as 16→20 days)

After the continuous interest rate cuts actually started (the "start" you mentioned):

The first kick is often "cashing out the good news + someone taking profits"”
BTC may go down first
But it will be picked up in 1 to 2 weeks
👉 This section is the easiest to wash out, so be sure to use your 'only trade at turning points' rule to protect yourself.

If easing continues in 2026–2027:

That’s the new round of real big guys
But what makes money at that time is not "you guessed it, cut interest rates", but "can you hold on + only get off at the obvious top"”

6. The last sentence

Today's BTC is not a question of whether to buy it, but a question of "can you survive in the period of high volatility and use rules?"

The real flood will have to wait until the point when "continuous interest rate cuts are confirmed + long-term interest rates will also go down."

Until then, just use your "top/bottom ROC model" and eat one piece at a time. This is the most reasonable way to play.