BTC WEEKLY 25.11.2 - Escape from the Top 2025 (Part 20) American capital is running away?

Nakamoto 2025-11-2 21:54 92368人围观 BTC

Hey everyone! The market situation in the past week is as we said in the last issue, "the macro is waiting for the wind to come", and the market is full of wait-and-see sentiment: the price continues the volatile market of the past two weeks, continuing t

Hey everyone!

The market situation in the past week is just as we said in the last issue, "the macro is waiting for the wind to come", and the market is in a wait-and-see mood:The price continued the volatile trend of the past two weeks and continued to see sideways between the long and short defense lines of 106k–116k., trading volume continues to decline, and on-chain liquidity indicators and futures leverage are also cold.

Although the macroeconomic benefits continue to be positive (Federal Reserve rate cut + Sino-US easing + US stock market rise), the market performance was mediocre last week. Two attempts to reach 116k ended in failure. Moreover, if you look closely, US capital is quietly withdrawing. Is this brewing a bigger crisis? Let’s analyze it carefully in this issue.

1. Market review of last week (10.26-11.02)

Let me first review the prediction I gave last week (10/26). The actual trend is biased toward script B mentioned last week:

On October 27th and 28th, after two failed attempts to hit 116k, the rebound power ran out, and the backtest 106k found support, and the price fluctuated sideways around 110k.

(Click on the picture to review last week’s weekly report)

And if you look closely at the line pattern, you will see that the two impacts on 116k both showed obvious upper shadows and the condition of Maker deteriorated, which are both short-term bearish signals.
Operation review:
Continuation of last week’s discipline——126k currency-based long-term short orders continue to be held, no short-term gambling (no direction bet, 114k is available but Maker's condition has deteriorated).

2. Recent macro situation:

2.1 Main macro data this week:

FOMC（10/30）

resolution : Interest rate cut 25bp (As expected).
balance sheet :Announce End of balance sheet reduction starting from 12/1 (QT)。
guidelines : Powell said, Further rate cut in December 'not a sure thing'” , there are obvious differences among the members, and the overall wording partial eagle。
market reaction : U.S. stocks fell first and then stabilized, U.S. dollar index strengthens , the interest rate side has hedged the easing margin of "ending the balance sheet reduction" and the "hawkish stance".

Interpretation: Master Bao is worthy of being a master of market sentiment management. On the surface, it is a nominal easing of "cut interest rates + end balance sheet reduction", but the forward guidance is hawkish, suppressing the market's imagination of continuous easing.In essence, it is more like "technical relief of liquidity pressure + wait and see data"”, not an all-out flood.

Meeting between Chinese and American leaders (10/30)

Place : Busan, South Korea.
Set the tone : Overall positive, emphasizing "dialogue, controlling differences, and stabilizing expectations."
Economic and trade : There is a positive signal of preliminary consensus on the framework of the trade agreement.

Interpretation:Necessary but not sufficient conditions for a small restoration of risk appetite. The real marginal improvement depends on the implementation of subsequent detailed rules and tariff/export control levels.

US Core PCE (10/31, September)

Core PCE YoY：2.91%(previous value 2.85%), slight recovery , still significantly higher than the 2% target.

Interpretation: This readingConstrained the expectations of “faster and deeper easing”, which corroborates with Powell’s hawkish approach.

2.2 Macro focus next week: The intensive macro events this week will bring short-term new directions to the market:

ISM Services PMI (11.3 Tuesday) : A weather vane of sticky inflation & demand strength in the service industry.
Initial jobless claims (11.5 Thursday) : Verify whether the weakening employment margin continues.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls & unemployment rate (Friday, 11.6) : Employment if Weak/lowering wages → Relaxation of interest rate expectations, positive for risky assets； On the contrary, the rebound will be suppressed.

ETF daily inflows and outflows : It is the fastest evidence to judge whether US capital will return/continue to wait and see.

In short, in the past week, when the overall macro trend was favorable, the price of the pie fluctuated downwards. This is a signal worthy of focus!

3. On-chain data analysis

3.1 Liquidity situation:

Spot ETFs:

As shown in the figure above, overall last week, ETF funds returned to net outflows, with a total net outflow of US$260 million. Are big institutions selling the FACTS? Or have other concerns? This week's ETF stance needs to be focused on.

Exchange stablecoin inventory:

As shown in the picture above, the blue line is the supply of stablecoins on the exchange, and the black line is the BTC price.

Last week’s trend (red box in the picture above) saw price fluctuations, but the stock of stablecoins continued to increase, which is related to the crazy bargain-hunting of Asian funds that we will talk about later.

Futures open interest

As shown in the figure above, the black line is the BTC price, the yellow line is the number of BTC futures open contracts, and the red line is the contract funding rate.

Last week's trend (red box in the picture above) shows the uncertainty and recurrence of market direction. The overall leveraged funds are at a low level in half a year, but the funding rate is still above 0, indicating that the current bullish sentiment continues.

3.2 Chip structure on the chain

URPD（UTXO Realized Price Distribution）

From the perspective of chip structure, chip concentration has increased again. Currently, more than 2.5 million BTC are concentrated at the position of 104-113k (red box in the picture above). Currently, long-term holders are selling like crazy (long-term holders sold 300,000 BTC in October, the highest value in a single month in 2025), and chips are concentrating upward. Every increase in chip concentration increases the risk of volatility. It is foreseeable that the price will fluctuate violently in the future, but whether it will be upward or downward cannot be accurately judged.

4. “Escape from the Top 2025” Monitoring Panel

This recently added weekly report module. We hope that through on-chain data analysis, we can successfully escape from the top of the recent market.

4.1 Are huge profits escaping and the trend fading?

BTC net realized profit:

As shown in the figure, the orange column represents the daily cashing profit of BTC. (As shown in the red box in the picture above), when profit realization shrinks, it means that the new market demand is not enough to undertake greater profit realization, indicating that demand is weakening, which is a bearish signal for the big weekly period⚠️.

4.2 Does relative unrealized profit form a top divergence? BTC relative unrealized profits:

As shown in the figure, the black line is the price of BTC, and the green line is the relative unrealized profit, which is used to measure the proportion of unrealized profits in the overall market, that is, the unrealized profit status of investors holding BTC in the market. When prices continue to rise but relative unrealized profits decline, there is only one possibility: someone cashed in their profits and ran away first! When more people cash out their profits and flee, and subsequent new entry funds are insufficient, prices will be unable to sustain and begin to fall. From the tops in December last year and January this year, we can see the divergence between price and unrealized profits (red box on the left side of the chart above). When the BTC price hit a new high recently on 8.14, the green line did not exceed the previous high, and a second decay occurred that perfectly triggered the warning signal ⚠️.

4.3 Are US funds quietly withdrawing?
Asia-US trading hours price momentum:

As shown in the figure above, the black line is the BTC price, the blue line is the US capital momentum, and the red line is the Asian capital momentum.

The trend last week was very strange. Rarely have there been such big differences between US capital and Asian capital. U.S. capital has been retreating last week, while Asian capital has been frantically bargain hunting (red box in the picture above).

There is a saying that last week's correction was just "selling the facts" after the interest rate cut, just like after the interest rate cut in September this year, there was a short correction, and then the market rushed out of ATH. However, it is worth noting that in September this year, US investors have been leading Asian investors in adding positions (green box in the picture above). As for the large-scale withdrawal of US capital last week, although we don’t know the reason, their actions are worthy of vigilance!

Such huge differences between American capital and Asian capital have occurred twice this year. The first time was in February this year (red box in the picture above). After the US capital withdrew, Asian capital bought the bottom, but then BTC plummeted. The second time was in early April this year (green box in the picture above), when the trade war started, and Asian capital bought the bottom and American capital withdrew. This time, Asian capital was obviously better.

The third major disagreement currently, which one do you think it will be like? My personal opinion is more inclined to February this year.

In short, after writing about the escape from the top for so many periods, it now seems that various indicators indicate that the top area of the bull market in this wave of market since May has basically passed. There will definitely be a rebound in the future. Without huge macro changes (huge quantitative easing, etc.), it seems that the possibility of significantly breaking the previous high is very small at present.

5. 2025.11.2 Trend Deduction for the Next Week
To sum up, I still maintain the current oxtail cycle judgment. Therefore, in the oxtail market, the trend is confusing and defense is the main focus.
List 2 possible market scenarios for the coming week:

Script A (medium to high probability): "Rebound and pin, shock and decline" Since October, the 116k position has been explored 4 times, but failed to break through. In the same way, there is also the support position of 106k. Both positions have gathered huge liquidity, which will form a certain attraction. If I were the "banker", I would take advantage of the macro news and first go down to eat up the liquidity of 106k, then rebound and pull the market to 116k. Stop Hunt eats up the liquidity and then goes down to test 106k, forming a double kill situation for both longs and shorts.
Scenario B (medium to low probability): “Modest rebound” – Non-farm payrolls were weak + ETFs resumed net inflows, recovering 114k. After the upward attack effectively stabilized 116k (no Stop Hunt occurred), it was expected to touch 120k.

6. Summary and plan (for reference only, not investment advice)

General direction: The bull tail structure has not changed - I maintain the tone of "there is a rebound, but it is difficult to reach a sustained new high"；The main line of shorting remains unchanged, longing only relies on tactical rebounds。

Short term (tactical position)

Bull trigger three elements Only to participate in:

114k stands firm within a day (At least 4H closed)；
taker buy
order book maker changes from negative to positive and continues。

→ If you are satisfied, you will catch up with Qingcang 116–117k , take profit in batches, wait and see if any factor is missing.

Midline: BTC continues to hold 126k long-term short orders

in conclusion

The on-chain and financial aspects have not yet appeared “U.S. capital is clearly returning” evidence. If volume and price cannot resonate above 114k, don’t expect the trend space of 120k。
Maintain the previous view: The stage top has passed The large framework remains unchanged； Rebounding can be done, but Don’t regard rebound as a trend。
Plan remains unchanged : The three short-term factors must be taken into account, otherwise the position will be short.； Keep holding your midline 126k long short order