Bitcoin’s super rebound will come soon, and the bear market in the currency circle will officially begin after the big rebound

Nakamoto 2026-2-18 12:42 21348人围观 BTC

On February 17, if Bitcoin closes down in February, it will record its fifth consecutive month of decline, setting a record for the longest losing streak since the 2018 bear market. The current decline in February has reached 13.98%. Since Bitcoin fell ba

On February 17, if Bitcoin closes down in February, it will record a fifth consecutive month of decline, setting a record for the longest losing streak since the 2018 bear market. The current decline in February has reached 13.98%. Since Bitcoin fell back from its historical high in October 2025, its cumulative decline has reached 52.44%, which is only 3.82 percentage points away from the maximum retracement of 56.26% in the 2018 bear market, which took only 123 days.

The total market value of the overall encryption market was reported at US$2.33 trillion, down 1.33% in the past 24 hours. Although the fear and greed index rose from 8 to 12, it is still in the "extreme fear" range.

Technically, Bitcoin price is still running below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200), and EMA200 is lower than EMA50, indicating that the short momentum is dominant. The relative strength index (RSI) is 34.7, which is in bearish territory. ； The Average Directional Index (ADX) reached 56.4, indicating that the current downward trend is strong.

As Bitcoin rebounded and exceeded US$70,000, Ethereum rebounded and briefly exceeded US$2,100. The current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates show that although the market remains bearish, the bearish sentiment towards Ethereum has been greatly alleviated. Ethereum rates have returned to neutral on almost all platforms. The specific funding rates are as shown in the attached figure.

The funding rate is a rate set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain a balance between the contract price and the price of the underlying asset. It usually applies to perpetual contracts. It is a fund exchange mechanism between long and short traders. The trading platform does not charge this fee. It is used to adjust the cost or benefit of traders holding contracts to keep the contract price close to the price of the underlying asset.

According to Forbes, one of the most overlooked developments during the crypto market downturn is that Bitcoin is showing signs of widespread accumulation. On-chain analysis shows that after a massive sell-off, almost all currency holders have re-entered buying behavior.

For the first time since late 2025, there has been widespread and sustained buying across all wallet sizes. It is worth noting that the data shows that wallets holding 10 to 100 Bitcoins were the most aggressive in their buying efforts, and became the main buyers again when the price fell back to around $60,000.

As institutions continue to deploy on-chain solutions, develop and launch Bitcoin-related products, including more ETFs and ETF-like products, and overall provide more on-chain services, the demand base for Bitcoin and other crypto-assets is broader than previous declines.

The Harvard Endowment Fund, known as the “savviest long-term fund,” staged a major round of position adjustments in the crypto market. It decisively reduced its holdings of Bitcoin ETFs by 21%. The action was straightforward and the position was clear. It was not a tentative reduction of positions, but a clear allocation reduction. At the same time, the fund spent approximately US$87 million in real money to build a large-scale position in Ethereum ETF for the first time, completing the layout at once. This is not a simple rebalancing, but a strategic tilt from Bitcoin to Ethereum. The attitude of reducing the position of Bitcoin and increasing the position of Ethereum is clear at a glance. For the positions of top institutions, retail investors can only serve as a reference.

Now Bitcoin and Ethereum are in the process of bottoming out, and there is already a slight margin of safety. Of course, finding and building the bottom in the cryptocurrency market is a long process of suffering and waiting. At the previous stage, Changpeng Zhao was still talking about the eternal bull market in the currency industry, but now he is saying that I cannot predict whether the industry will be bullish or bearish, and traders must proceed with caution.

Recently, I suddenly realized that many institutional retail investors want to enter the market near 50,000 Bitcoin, including me! The moment of reflection began. When the collective shouts for 40,000 to 50,000 to buy the bottom, a strong unanimous expectation is formed, which is essentially a consensus trap replicating the top of 180,000 Bitcoin in the bull market of 2025. Consensus buying the bottom will overdraw buying orders in advance, turning this range into a meat grinding area where the main force induces bullishness and shocks shipments. The real bottom of the currency circle is never noisy. It only appears when the entire network is bearish and no one dares to buy the bottom. Bitcoin's near 50,000 is only an emotional bottom, not a financial and structural bottom. The real bottom is either below 40,000, or simply 60,000. Alas, a strong consensus is a fatal temptation.

At present, the currency circle, especially Bitcoin, is in the process of K-line repair after a sharp decline, and the probability of rebound is very high. Nowadays, the consensus of a bear market in the currency circle is very high. After retail investors have a consensus of a bear market, there will be a super rebound. The target price of the rebound is around 85,000 US dollars in Bitcoin. After this rebound, a monthly-level head and shoulders top of Bitcoin will be formed. That is a real bear market and the best opportunity for long-term short selling.

If the currency circle doesn’t plummet, how will retail investors get rich in the next round? The wealth effects in the currency circle are all caused by the fall, and they are all caused by the collapse of institutions at low levels. If these institutions don't collapse, the next bull market institutions in four years will sell at a high of 100,000 yuan. Will retail investors still have hope? It’s okay if it doesn’t fall. If it doesn’t fall, there will be no new highs. If the Shanghai Stock Exchange doesn’t fall, it has less than doubled in 8 years. Can retail investors make money? Long-term bottom-buying retail investors will enter the market as early as October 7, 2026, which is a full year after Bitcoin’s highest point of $12,181 on October 7, 2025.

This year's New Year's Day has a good start. I hope that friends will be patient, determined, and aware, seize the opportunity, have abundant financial resources, and have a bright future. In the Year of the Bingwu Horse, I wish every retail investor can endure loneliness, wait for short positions, and hold on to the bottom in 2026. I wish all friends a happy New Year.