Does the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still exist?

Nakamoto 2025-9-28 16:26 46407人围观 BTC

This issue has been very controversial in the circle recently, because it is now approaching the end of the cycle and it is time to verify it. The core narrative of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is the halving mechanism, which was written into the code by Sat

This issue has been very controversial in the circle recently, because it is almost the end of the cycle and it is time for verification. The core narrative of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is the halving mechanism, which was written into the code by Satoshi Nakamoto. The block reward of Bitcoin is halved approximately every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years). The result is that the Bitcoins obtained by absentee mining will be directly reduced by half, the income of miners will be reduced, and the new supply in the market will also be reduced by half. When the supply of Bitcoin decreases and the demand remains unchanged, the price will rise. This is the bull market effect caused by halving. Therefore, the market will buy in advance before the halving. The halving effect will lead to the formation of a consensus, and the influx of funds will cause the price to rise. When the price rises to a certain level, the profit-making funds that entered in the early stage will flee, and then the market will start to go bearish. Judging from past history, the pattern of a four-year cycle is that prices rise in the first three years and then start to fall in the next year.

2012 After halving → 2013 ushered in the first big bull market
2016 After Halving → 2017 Bull Market
2020 After Halving → 2021 Bull Market

The past three cycles all have strong regularity and similarities. They all reached historical highs around 540 days after the halving. The peak of this cycle was reached in late October.

From a time point of view, according to historical rules, there is only one month left. If we want to hit a new high in this month, will it follow a cycle? This is where the controversy is high. The difference today is that there are more participating institutions, such as sovereign funds, hedge funds, ETFs and treasury companies. This was difficult to see in the past few cycles, and price movements are more affected by the rhythm of global capital markets. The market volume has expanded. The market value was very small in 2012 and 2016, and the supply impact of the halving was obvious. ； Currently, the circulation of Bitcoin is large and the proportion of new supply is small. The impact of halving on the supply side is diminishing. The influence of macro factors has increased. The impact of Fed interest rates, US dollar liquidity, and geopolitics may exceed the simple halving. The possible future shape is no longer a strict four-year cycle, but is driven by macro liquidity and risk appetite. Bulls and bears may move faster or slower. The halving may still be the "igniter" of the bull market, but how big the fire can burn depends on the global financial environment. It may gradually evolve into a macro cycle similar to traditional financial markets, decoupled from the halving. The "Bitcoin four-year cycle" in the strict sense is no longer as decisive as it was in the early days, but the halving is still an important catalyst. Future price fluctuations will be determined more by macro liquidity, institutional funds and global risk appetite, rather than a simple four-year rule. Will this cycle be extended? Why does Bitcoin have a four-year bull-bear cycle? Does the four-year pie cycle still exist?

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