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 Bitcoin’s compound rate of return in recent years is 83.75%. But how many people can hold it?  Text | Qin Xiaofeng Xuejiao Operation | Gaiyao Editor | Lu Xiaoming Source | Odaily Planet Daily (ID: o-daily) The Bitcoin bull run is back. “Bitcoin is about to revolution again. ”Starting in April this year, Bitcoin (BTC) began to rise. Last weekend, on June 22, Bitcoin broke through the $10,000 mark. Since then, it has been like a wild horse running wild, with prices skyrocketing. Four days later, BTC's rise continued unabated, exceeding US$11,000 and US$12,000 one after another. Since this year, BTC has increased by 220%. Although there is still a certain distance from the highest price of US$19,875 in the 2017 bull market, the single-day trading volume of BTC and the total daily trading volume of the entire cryptocurrency market have exceeded previous highs and set new highs again.  (BTC trading volume) “I made 180,000 in one month. ” A new entrant has invested one month’s salary and the current return rate is over 150%.； More people feel regret for not getting on the bus in time, and are afraid of going short and chasing highs. They just want Bitcoin to "turn around" again and let them get on the bus. OK Research, a research institution, believes that the Bitcoin market has entered a comprehensive recovery period and is expected to usher in explosive growth during the excitement period after 4-6 months of increased volatility. Based on the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin prices and the amplified signal of market demand in this round, the current price peak is expected to hit a record high. Suddenly, people who didn’t believe in Bitcoin began to believe it again； People with short positions come back to "recharge their faith"” ； The disappeared boss comes back to call for orders ； Bitcoin mining machines are in short supply again. Lei Jun once said that the cost of trial and error is not high, but the cost of missing something is very high. It is precisely because of this reason that countless leeks enter the market when the currency price reaches its peak. As the saying goes: "You said 3,000 Bitcoins were a scam, but when they were 10,000, you rushed to get on the bus..." As the currency price rises, people begin to fall into a deep FOMO (fear of missing out) emotion. As the Bitcoin bull market becomes more and more intense, what investors in it are being tested is not their deep understanding of digital currency or blockchain, but their human nature.  Leek: Earning hundreds of thousands a month, afraid of falling short and chasing highs The cryptocurrency market is picking up, and retail investors are hoping to take this train and find the road to freedom of wealth. “I made 180,000 last month. ” Investor Chen Yin told Odaily Planet Daily that by investing in cryptocurrency, he has made a cumulative income of 300,000 in the past two months. He could not conceal his excitement in his words. There are many examples like Chen Yin, and many of them are new investors, commonly known as "new leeks entering the market" in the industry, and investor Zhang Ning is one of them. After learning about the skyrocketing price of Bitcoin through Weibo in April this year, Zhang Ning invested one month's salary, and the current rate of return exceeds 150%. “I don’t know anything, I just invest blindly and make money just by taking it. ”Zhang Ning said with a smile, “In this bull market, even a fool can make money, and I am that fool. ” Those who got on the bus made a lot of money, while those who didn't got on the bus hoped that the bus would turn around quickly. “When it was eight to nine thousand (US dollars), I thought it was too high, but I didn’t expect it to be over ten thousand now. I just want it to call back soon so I can get on the bus. ”A retail investor who is paying attention to the price of Bitcoin but has been hesitant to buy it said. “I invested a little before, but now seeing it rise so much, I feel so sad. ”Miaomiao, a white-collar worker who has studied Bitcoin this year and believes that it will soar, started investing a few months ago. Now he is sad that he bought too little and just regrets not having a stud (investing most of his assets). Some people are happy to get on the bus in time, while others regret getting off the bus too early. “I also got off the bus at 9700 or 9800. I felt like I was dumped in the parking lot and then watched the car drive away. ”Wang Qi originally planned to catch the price when it pulled back. However, Bitcoin continued to advance rapidly and did not pull back as expected. Wang Qi also unexpectedly went short. I am afraid of falling short, afraid of chasing highs, and even more afraid of missing out. FOMO psychology makes new leeks feel uneasy. On-chain data shows that the number of new Bitcoin addresses has increased by 30.98% in the past seven days, and the number of active Bitcoin addresses has increased by 6.86% in the past seven days. This shows that the entry volume and activity of BTC investors are increasing. Chris Kline, CEO of Bitcoin IRA, the largest Bitcoin Individual Retirement Account (IRA) platform in the United States, said that as Bitcoin exceeded $11,000, investor interest and investment activity in the past six weeks exceeded that of the previous year, and the trading volume of its IRA platform is at an all-time high and is expected to continue to grow. According to The Tie Twitter, on June 22, the number of Bitcoin tweets exceeded 50,000, reaching the highest level since February 20, 2018. The Baidu search index shows that the current search volume for Bitcoin is three times greater than the total search volume in the previous six months, which may indicate that China's encryption market is hotter compared to Western markets.  The boss calls for orders: Yuhong at three o’clock is back again After BTC exceeded $10,000, the former "retired" currency industry tycoons drove past with a train hanging a "Freedom of Wealth" banner and greeted investors coming and going to get on the train. Among them, "Yu Hong", the founder of the three o'clock group, is the most prominent. On June 20, the cryptocurrency XMX launched by Yuhong once again entered the field of view of the cryptocurrency circle. On that day, XMX drew a big positive line, rising by more than 70%. In the next few days, XMX founder Yu Hong began to frantically place orders in the community, sending group messages every day, and promised that she would open a position after XMX increased five times.  As for why she opened a position only after 5 times the price, Yuhong explained: "It was determined by my personal capital size. The plate was too small for me to play. ” However, in the view of investor Duan Hong, Yuhong's approach is to draw a big pie for Leek. “He has a lot of funds, so he can build a position gradually. There is no need to open a position at 5 times the price. The reason for saying this is actually to draw a big pie, which is equivalent to a disguised promise that you can do it. ” Yuhong's order call was undoubtedly effective. XMX gained great attention with a 6-fold increase in the next 5 days, and Duan Hong also entered the game. However, due to his distrust of Yuhong, Duan Hong quit the company when the profit doubled. “XMX will never engage in market value management. Community division is the only strategy of XMX market value management! Everyone is also welcome to cut me. ”Looking back at the messages sent by Yuhong, it seems that he does not avoid the word "cut" because he was once given the title of "cutting leeks". For Yuhong, 2018 was a world of ice and fire between heaven and hell. In the first half of the year, Yuhong switched from the Internet circle to the blockchain and promoted Yuhong to the altar by organizing the "Three O'clock Community". For a time, various reputations came to her - "Preacher", "No. 1 person in the blockchain community", etc. In the second half of the year, XMX, the project launched by Yuhong, suffered a breakout after being listed on the exchange. It was also called a "leek cutter" and a "liar".  Mining machines are in short supply again The leeks that buy coins are in a commotion, and the retail investors who are mining are also digging. Kennen, the owner of the mine, clearly remembers that since April 2, when Bitcoin started to reach $5,000, friends who wanted to buy mining machines and mine (mining) slots kept appearing on his WeChat. “WeChat exploded with people asking about mining, and there was no way to get back. Among these investors, there are many CEOs of various traditional companies with tens of millions, who can buy mining machines worth tens of millions. ”Kennen told Odaily Planet Daily. Stimulated by huge demand, the price of second-hand mining machines has been rising in turns since April. Antminer Z11 has increased by 8,000 yuan (an increase of 47%). Old models of mining machines such as Shenma Mining Machine M3 and Antminer Mining Machine T9+ have been announced to be sold out. Orders for new generation mining machines from major mining machine manufacturers such as Canaan Mining Machinery and Shenma Mining Machinery have been scheduled for October. “The current situation seems to be back to the second half of 2017, when the market demand for mining machines was three times the supply. ”Steven Mosher, head of global sales and marketing at Canaan, told the media. Overnight, the rush to buy futures mining machines returned. Data from cryptocurrency data service company TonkengInsight shows that the daily rise in currency prices has led to a significant reduction in the average payback period of new generation mining machines. The average payback period for mining equipment used to be about 120-280 days, but by the second quarter of 2019 it had dropped to 60-150 days. No matter how big or small your capital is, you don’t want to miss out on a promising business. Starting from May, there has been no shortage of heavyweight players entering the mining industry. Fidelity, a large asset management company that manages US$2.4 trillion, announced that it will deploy Bitcoin mining and related energy industries. Fundamental Labs, an institution that has invested in unicorns such as Coinbase, Canaan, and Binance Coin, launched a US$44.5 million (approximately RMB 300 million) first-phase fund during the same period for computing power construction. In the future, the fund will also raise funds in batches, with a total target size of US$150 million. If half of Fundamental Labs' first-phase fund is used to purchase S9 mining machines (the price at the time was about 1,500 yuan), 100,000 units can be purchased, equivalent to nearly 3% of the current computing power of the entire network. With the entry of new mining machines and the large amount of low-priced electricity supplied during the flood season, the computing power of the Bitcoin network has successively exceeded the highest level in history. According to data from the mining pool BTC.com, since the currency price fell at the end of last year, the 14-day Bitcoin network computing power once dropped to 36 million TH/s, and the computing power on the most recent day (June 25) was 65 million TH/s. Within a few months, the Bitcoin computing power increased by 80%, which is equivalent to the launch of approximately 2 million new mining machines.  Blockchain entrepreneurial passion revives Leek is gathering momentum, the big guys are calling for orders, and the entrepreneurs are making the moves. “Prepare to put the project online before the bull market. ”Zhang Qing told Odaily Planet Daily. Zhang Qing started working on the "advertising + blockchain project" after withdrawing from the Internet project in early 2018. After the project white paper was prepared, the blockchain industry took a turn for the worse in mid-2018. "The industry entered a bear market, and two months later entered the second half of the bear market." Capital and token funds "fleeed". With no hope of raising funds, he and his team turned around and returned to classical Internet companies. But in April this year, the surge in currency prices once again rekindled Zhang Qing's entrepreneurial passion. He resigned from the Internet company and looked for opportunities in the currency circle again. In the process, he also hooked up with his friend Apan, who had resigned from a certain token fund and was currently unemployed at home. “Recently, I feel that the spirit of entrepreneurs has changed, and I have begun to have confidence in the industry again. ”Entrepreneur Mandy, who has been working hard in the industry since the last bull market, lamented, "I have now begun to believe that 'the market will always reward those who ride through the bull and bear markets.'" ”  Is this bull market different? “You will never see $10,000 in Bitcoin again. ”This is the most exciting sigh in this round of market conditions. “I personally think that this BTC price rise is different from the bull market at the end of 2017. ”A foreign Bitcoin believer wrote on his blog, “Now is a good time to buy BTC, we will no longer see BTC for 6,000, 8,000 or even less than 10,000 US dollars. ” Such remarks may sound sensational, but now they are overwhelming. Many people believe that this bull market is different from the previous one. The first is the amount of funds. An important reason for the last bull market was the myth of wealth creation created by ICO, which attracted more people into the cryptocurrency field and new incremental (retail) funds. This time, many comments believe that Bitcoin’s rise is supported by institutions, which means that Bitcoin’s rise will be more stable and lasting. The second is the value support behind it. At present, only BTC has returned to bull market levels, and other cryptocurrencies have not performed well. The rise of BTC alone reflects the preference of funds for different currencies. As an asset or means of payment, BTC is gradually being supported by large financial institutions. Even mainstream foreign media believe that this Bitcoin rise has valuable support. A survey conducted by Kaspersky Labs in February 2019 showed that about 13% of people use cryptocurrencies as a payment method. Coinmap data also shows that since December 2013, the number of businesses worldwide accepting Bitcoin has increased by 702%. Matt Greenspan, senior analyst at eToro, said, “The market has matured significantly since the last time Bitcoin topped $10,000. This rally makes more sense given the current level of adoption. ” Some analysts believe that geopolitical turmoil has further strengthened the status of Bitcoin’s digital gold. “Financial institutions and individuals have less confidence in fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar and are trying to find safe havens to store their funds. The traditional choice is gold and other precious metals, but in the past two years, Bitcoin has slowly entered the public eye. Despite its high volatility, it is still regarded as a safe and reliable store of value. ”Analysis by Bitcoin believer Lucien Lecarme. Data from coin.dance shows that weekly Bitcoin trading volume in Argentina continues to rise, reaching an all-time high. This trend is not surprising in a country like Venezuela, which is in the same hyperinflationary situation. Cryptocurrencies are even more needed to achieve store of value. Logically, as the number of these people increases, mainstream society will gradually adopt cryptocurrencies. What shocked the technology industry the most was Facebook’s currency issuance. Three things happened this month that directly and forcefully brought digital currencies and their rise into the public eye: Facebook's release of Libra and "Bitcoin breaks 10,000" hot searches. Even people who don’t pay attention to blockchain will accidentally see these news as long as they read books and newspapers. Among them, the one that shocked the industry the most was Facebook’s Libra. Edward Moya, chief market strategist at Oanda in New York, said that the emergence of Libra has validated the encryption space and pushed mainstream digital currencies to a higher position. “The circle of friends and the Internet are experiencing earthquakes. ” A BTG employee told Odaily Planet Daily. “As for the biggest pain that day, I came from the Internet. Before, I spent two and three hours telling him what the use of blockchain is? It's no use. When Facebook's Libra came out, they all started to understand the technical principles and why they were doing this. They were very touched. Although this Libra is only EOS+USDT, I think it has a higher probability of success. ” “Facebook is an Internet giant, and this event will be another milestone in the blockchain world. ”Wang Binsheng, a distinguished postgraduate professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences who has participated in the design of many token business models and economic models, believes that. An industry insider said of Libra, “Libra can be said to mean that the Internet industry or traditional industries have finally paid attention to blockchain on a large scale after a year, and gradually everyone has a clear understanding: blockchain may not be able to transform various traditional scenarios, but it is definitely capable of transforming traditional finance. However, most of the previous projects were "copycats" and were far away from mainstream finance. Now Facebook has taken the lead in establishing this global value interconnection through blockchain, which has really made everyone higher. If global money can enter digital assets with a very low threshold, it will definitely be considered a revolution. ” Finally, this market trend is also inseparable from the inherent design and cyclicality of BTC. According to the Bitcoin white paper, Bitcoin mining revenue is halved every four years, and the next halving is expected to be in mid-May 2020. According to analysis by investment institution Pantera Capital, in the months before the Bitcoin reward halving in 2012 and 2016, the price of Bitcoin rose steadily, which was cyclical to a certain extent, with an average cycle of 348 days. This means that Bitcoin will usher in a new round of market prices on June 10, 2019.  When the halving is coming, in order to catch up with the market, some institutions and individuals choose to purchase BTC in advance, which also causes the currency price to rise.  The dead cat rebound is still a real bull market, what’s more important is that it can be held The American crypto asset management giant Grayscale Investments revealed its wealth. The chart it published shows that Grayscale purchased more than 11,000 BTC in April 2019, accounting for about 21% of the global monthly supply of BTC. “Institutional investors are FOMO (fear of missing out) on Bitcoin. ” Today, Bitcoin has exceeded 10,000, but OK Research believes that the price has not yet stabilized in a "hyper" state. It is expected to usher in explosive growth in the hyperactive period after 4-6 months of volatility growth. According to the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin prices, combined with the amplified signal of market demand in this round, the current price peak is expected to hit a record high. Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at ThinkMarkets, also predicted that Bitcoin will reach $60,000 to $100,000 in the next bull market. “The current price points to watch are $20,000 and $50,000. In addition, Naeem Aslam also pointed out that unrest and even potential war in the Middle East are the biggest driving factors for the growth of diversified assets including Bitcoin. ”He also said that this bull market is conservatively estimated to push the price of Bitcoin to an all-time high. At the same time, some analysts also warned to pay attention to risks. Bloomberg quoted Whitney Tilson, founder of Emere Financial Research, as saying don't be fooled by this year's dead cat rebound, saying prices will be much lower in a year. OKex senior analyst Charles Cai believes that while holding cryptocurrencies, one should also pay attention to the risk of correction. “I once made statistics on the bull market that started in 2015. At that time, the market rose lasted between 22 and 220 days, with an average of about three months. During this period, there would be a correction of more than 30% almost every once in a while. ”Charles Cai said. However, compared to the bull-bear conversion, what can be held may be the best way. “Although HOLD (holding coins) is the secret to getting rich, there are only a handful of people who insist on investing regularly. ”Wang Qi reflected.  According to a research report by OK Research, Bitcoin’s compound rate of return in recent years has been 83.75%. But as Jiang Zhuoer, a mining veteran, believes: “Although Bitcoin has risen so many times, how many people can successfully buy low and sell high? It is difficult to hold the currency and successfully escape from the top, so if you want to invest in Bitcoin, you can build your business on the currency, such as mining, over-the-counter trading, etc. You cannot speculate in the currency. ”  「 Odaily Planet Daily" and "BlockBeats" jointly hosted StakingCon - Staking Ecological Conference, which is the first large-scale offline event in the digital encryption world with the theme of Staking ecology. The Algorand Dutch shooting team came to the stage for the first time, and Cardano, Dash, and Tezos made their debut in China. In addition, there will be dozens of star-level blockchain project team members and Staking peripheral ecology celebrities who will come to the site to interact. This may be the largest Staking event in history. "StakingCon" on July 10th, we are here waiting for you.       |
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