BTC may not have the basis for a long-term decline at this stage

Nakamoto 2025-9-17 17:31 99055人围观 BTC

Original | Liu Jiaolian’s good wind sent me to the blue sky with his strength. Since the Bitcoin spot ETF was officially approved for listing by the US SEC on January 10th at the beginning of the year (see Jiaolian 1.11 article "BTC Comes into the House,

Original | Liu Jiaolian

The good wind carries me to the blue clouds with its power.

Since the Bitcoin spot ETF was officially approved for listing by the U.S. SEC on January 10 at the beginning of the year (please refer to the 1.11 article "BTC enters the market, the SEC wants to refuse but welcomes it"), BTC touched a high of 49k, first spent more than half a month to fall back to 38.5k, and then couldn't bear it and began to fall back. On February 8, a carp shot up and closed up 5% to stand back above 45k. Since then, it has been rising non-stop from 45k. One month later, it reached a record high of 72.6k on March 13, effectively breaking through and surpassing the previous high of 69k on November 10, 2021, sending a technical signal of a bull market.

Just as Jiaolian pointed out in the "2022 Year-End Review Outlook Report" in December 2022 that 16-17k was likely to be a cycle low at that time； So, when now, in March 2024, BTC has broken through the previous high and reached a new historical height of around 70k, Jiaolian has already pointed out in Jiaolian’s internal reference on March 14, "Research Says BTC Will Rise to 77k in Early April, and to $146,000 in 90 Days, that mid-term risks are rising." At that time, the internal reference said this:

「At present, 73k is basically in the middle orbit position. From here on up, the risks start to increase. The higher it goes, the greater the risk.

「Deleveraging in a bear market can almost always drop by 70-80%, because this basically represents the scale of the leverage accumulated in a bull market. Even if it rises to $350,000, which many people may not dare to imagine, it will fall back to $100,000 after a 70% correction. ； An 80% correction would bring it back to $70,000, which is exactly the range where the current bull market started. What if the top of the mountain is not as high as 350,000? Then the height after the callback will only be lower.

「Therefore, starting from $70,000 is a "confirmation signal" for the leeks who had previously withdrawn from the circle to come back one after another, but it is also a watershed for the market to switch from low risk to high risk. A bear market is a good opportunity to build a position. It is already a bull market, and many people who entered it at this time may not make much money after passing through this bull and bear cycle. 」

In the spirit of leniency when predicting the enemy, in the crypto market, the mathematical expectation of profit and loss for 5 times earnings is already equal to 0. This is still the lowest risk BTC.

If we still look at the old double-logarithmic price corridor, the upper track at the end of 2024 is 37.7 million dollars and the lower track is 35.5 million dollars. By the end of 2025, the upper track will be 51.2 million dollars, and the lower track will be 50,000 dollars. By the end of 2026, the upper track will have 68.3 million dollars, and the lower track will have 70,000 dollars. (See Jiaolian’s 2021.7.24 article “Bitcoin’s Price Corridor”)

Visible to the naked eye, there are several intuitive inferences:

1. We are expected to see 100,000+ BTC by the end of this year.

2. If this bull market can be "fully developed" (that is, hit the upper rail), then we may be lucky enough to see 300,000-500,000 BTC in the next 1-2 years.

3. If the "four-year cycle" is still valid, then the bear market at the end of 2026 will approach the downward trajectory of 7w. This is exactly the price range for BTC today.

Have a good idea:

30w -70% = 9w, 30w -80% = 6w;

35w -70% = 10w, 35w -80% = 7w;

40w -70% = 12w, 40w -80% = 8w;

45w -70% = 13w, 45w -80% = 9w;

50w -70% = 15w, 50w -80% = 10w。

Remember what Li Zongsheng sang in "The Hills": After crossing the hills, I found that no one was waiting. Before you can see immortality as you wish, you will lose yourself first.

I hope that friends who enter the site at this time will not get lost after crossing the hill. When you reach the other side of the hill, you will find the teaching chain already waiting.

4. If Laojiao wants to "escape from the top", he might as well divide the position into two parts: one part is to add a position for less than 50,000 dollars, and it can almost move as fast as a mountain.； The other one is for adding positions above $70,000, and may be able to reduce positions in batches after crossing 10-150,000 upwards.

The consciousness of reducing your position must be not to take advantage of BTC, that is, to think that you can buy more at a cheaper price. To lighten your position, you will have to bear the risk of "flying". If you can't buy it back in the future, just don't regret it. Without this open-minded attitude, we will surely fail.

Do you think we can wait until 200,000 or more than 300,000 before starting to reduce the position? In fact, you can wait as long as you want. That's your freedom. As for whether you can wait, that depends on fate.

Understand probability. Abandon black and white thinking.

5. According to the "breathing theory (hypothesis)" proposed by Jiaolian (see Jiaolian's 2023.1.16 article "Bitcoin Price Prospects for 2023"), after returning to the water in May 2022 and exhaling until today, it seems that all the breath inhaled from 2021 to the first half of 2022 has been exhausted. Bitcoin’s entire lung capacity has been exhausted, and it urgently needs to get out of the water (middle track) to inhale fresh air (funds). As the title of this article says, BTC may not have the basis for a long-term decline at this stage.

In fact, this statement by Jiao Lian was published as early as February 29 in Jiao Lian’s internal reference "Rush to the Top" and it is almost coming true. May I ask where is the way forward? "It has been said in ". The original words are as follows:

「From the perspective of breathing theory, it is still just close to surfacing (not yet), and the breath is almost exhaling all the breath in the 2021 bull market. If we don’t inhale more breath above the middle track, it will directly collapse and plunge down, and there is no breath to exhale under the water. What should we do? It doesn't seem reasonable. 」

This comment was made when commenting on the statement made by a certain fund founder at that time that BTC would correct by 15% in March.

From the perspective of macro factors, that is, external factors, the expiration of the BTFP tool in March, the resurgence of U.S. inflation, and the Fed's interest rate meeting will certainly not turn to easing quickly. These are not good news. In addition, BTC has indeed risen sharply in the past few months, which is daunting. At this moment, any macro analyst may tell you that BTC should undergo a correction of considerable magnitude and length.

However, if we operate from the perspective of endogenous contradictions, that is, from the perspective of internal factors, we are "drawing our swords and looking around at a loss", and we cannot see how BTC can directly plunge into this place.

Many people think that external factors must determine internal factors. However, the teacher's "On Contradiction" always clearly tells us that internal factors determine external factors. “Therefore, victory or defeat all depends on internal factors. ”

External factors can only exert their effects through internal factors. If internal factors do not allow it, no matter how external factors are imposed, it will be useless. Just like your child doesn't like to study, no matter how hard you force him, you can't force him to become a top student.

I think that the Federal Reserve, which is almost as powerful as a god, will never be able to defeat the teacher's ideas.

This does not mean that pin-type plunges and pulls cannot be made. The needle insertion time is extremely short and does not occupy breathing volume. Even if a -90% needle is inserted, its integral area is almost zero. In order to liquidate your position, anything is possible.

Theoretical derivation and academic discussion. Make bold assumptions and verify carefully. It is not intended as any investment basis or trading advice, please bear in mind.

Extra: Teaching Chain Internal Parameters 3.15 "Internal Parameters: Full Callback!" 》

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Extended reading for more Liu Jiaolian’s wonderful articles:

Year-end Research Report 2022 will be decrypted on November 20, 2023 (Year-end Research Report 2023 has not yet been decrypted, and Planet members can download it for free； Or pay to download separately: https://leanpub.com/2023-annual-report/ )

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The Fed’s interest rate hike game Game Over 2023.10.5

Bitcoin’s Endgame: It May Be Equal to the Total Value of All Human Surplus! 2024.3.4

【Ten Years Date #13】Bitcoin is Breathing 2023.12.6

The dawn of forty thousand is quiet 2023.12.3

Bitcoin has won 2022.7.1

(Public account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: The official account replied "Planet")

(Disclaimer: None of the content in this article constitutes any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and may return to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for yourself. )

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