Bitcoin has risen 7.54 million times in 8 years! However, it may face huge risks next month...

Nakamoto 2025-10-13 16:25 7606人围观 BTC

Bitcoin is like a phoenix. Under strict supervision, Bitcoin once again exceeded its previous high, but the outcome seems to be doomed.

In the past two days, a joke has become popular in the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin exceeded 5,800 US dollars (approximately RMB 38,280). When it was issued in 2009, 1 US dollar was equivalent to 1,300 Bitcoins. What is investment? It has increased by 7.54 million times in 8 years. At that time, you only needed to spend 38,460 yuan to buy some Bitcoins. Now you are the richest man in China. Now Xu Jiayin has become the richest man in China with 290 billion yuan!

Not only is the increase astonishing, judging from the market value of Bitcoin of 636.1 billion yuan (96.7 billion U.S. dollars), it is not inferior to A-share listed companies. In terms of the top 20 A+H market value rankings, Bitcoin can roughly rank 11th.

After the ICO was urgently halted and major Bitcoin platforms announced the suspension of RMB trading operations, the price of Bitcoin once again went on a roller coaster ride. From the lowest point of 16,661 yuan to now about to break the 40,000 mark, it only took a month. At the same time, global regulators have increased their focus on Bitcoin and tightened their attitudes.

Let’s first look at the history of Bitcoin.

✪
January 3, 2009

Satoshi Nakamoto mined the first 50 Bitcoins on a small server in Helsinki, Finland.
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May 21, 2010

A programmer used 10,000 Bitcoins to buy a $25 pizza. This transaction created the first fair exchange rate for Bitcoin.
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February 9, 2011

Bitcoin price reaches $1 for the first time. Mutual exchange trading platforms for Bitcoin and British Pound, Brazilian Dollar, and Polish Dollar have been opened successively.
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December 6, 2012

The world's first officially recognized Bitcoin exchange, the French Bitcoin Central Exchange, was born.
✪
March 30, 2013

After converting the market capitalization into US dollars, the total value of all issued Bitcoins exceeded US$1 billion.
✪
2016

It rose from about 2,800 yuan at the beginning of the year to more than 6,800 yuan, an increase of more than 100%, setting a new high in three years. At the same time, ICO began to enter the public eye.
✪
2017

Bitcoin has risen strongly, from about 8,000 yuan at the beginning of the year to about 37,000 yuan now. The current market value has exceeded 96 billion US dollars. ICO is classified as illegal fund-raising in China.

The currency price is about to hit the 40,000 mark

Bitcoin has been creating a mythical market, and this market is also accompanied by countless stories of getting rich overnight and losing everything. In early September this year, the wildly growing ICO (virtual currency initial public offering) ushered in heavy supervision. Seven ministries and commissions including the central bank issued a notice to prevent ICO financing risks, which clearly requires a comprehensive survey and a halt to all new ICO projects. Completed ICO projects must be studied and judged on a case-by-case basis, and those targeted at public offerings must be cleared. The ICO business has been completely suspended.

Affected by this, digital currencies were in dire straits and plummeted. Within half a month, the price of Bitcoin dropped from around 32,000 yuan to as low as 16,661 yuan, almost halved.

However, the plummeting market only lasted for half a month. On September 17, the price of Bitcoin bottomed out and rebounded. The currency price closed at 37,599 yuan, just one step away from breaking through the 40,000 mark, and the price doubled within the month. Compared with the price of Bitcoin at the beginning of this year, the increase has reached 470%. Coindesk data shows that the overseas Bitcoin price reached US$5,200, an increase of 18.75% from last week and 23% higher than last month. It broke the September high of $5,013.

Tightening of global attitudes

In the process of de-Chineseizing Bitcoin, the world’s attitude toward digital currencies is becoming increasingly cautious.

Russia, which has always been open to digital currencies, has also sounded the alarm recently. Putin said that digital currencies such as Bitcoin have posed serious risks, and the country may introduce policies to regulate digital currencies. The Russian Finance Minister also recently stated that “cryptocurrencies are an unchangeable fact and we should not ignore their rise, but they need to be regulated.”

The CEO of JPMorgan Chase also denounced Bitcoin twice in two months, believing that the government would regulate and suppress it sooner or later. He once called Bitcoin "a scam worse than the tulip bubble."

The former chief economist of the IMF has also recently spoken out against Bitcoin. He believes that as cryptocurrencies continue to face regulatory pressure from governments around the world, Bitcoin prices will eventually collapse, but Bitcoin’s underlying technology, blockchain technology, will flourish.

The European Central Bank is cautious about the technology supporting digital currencies. Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, said in an interview that the underlying technology of Bitcoin is not yet mature enough for the ECB to consider it in its decision-making process or payment system, and it will continue to pay attention to the development of this technology.

Major changes and risks will be implemented in November

Judging from various signs and expectations, the bifurcation that will usher in November is the most important reason for this round of price increases. So what is the Bitcoin fork, what impact will it have, and will it bring risks or benefits? Let the reporter tell you one by one.

First of all, everyone needs to be clear that the fork in November was not sudden, but was planned and anticipated. The controversy related to the fork has occurred since shortly after the birth of Bitcoin. It can be said that it has a long history. It is the need for Bitcoin's technology upgrade and is also the result of the disputes over the interests of various parties involved in Bitcoin. Although this fork is a high-probability event, the final outcome has not yet been determined.

Bitcoin's initial setting is that each block size is 1M, and a block is generated every ten minutes on average. The Bitcoin network can theoretically handle up to 7 transactions per second. With the continuous growth of Bitcoin holders and transactions on the blockchain, the original 1M block size is no longer enough to support the increasingly large transaction volume, and problems such as network congestion and transaction delays are becoming increasingly serious. In order to solve these problems, the Bitcoin community has explored various solutions, mainly including "Segregated Witness + Lightning Network" and modifying the code of the Bitcoin blockchain in order to break through the 1M block limit, that is, Bitcoin expansion.

Various Bitcoin related parties have proposed a variety of expansion plans. The current consensus solution is the "New York Consensus", which is to first deploy Segregated Witness on the main chain of the Bitcoin blockchain, and then conduct a block expansion of 1M to 2M in November. By then, the problem of Bitcoin transaction congestion is expected to be alleviated.

However, this solution has not been recognized by Bitcoin core, the Bitcoin core development community. There are no Bitcoin Core developers involved in the New York Consensus. The core team threatened that if the expansion is implemented, the team will fork again before November and adhere to the 1M block size. The expectation for this fork is based on this background.

What does a fork mean for Bitcoin? Why the struggle is so complex. The main reason is the different understanding of the Bitcoin concept and the interest disputes behind it. If only SegWit is deployed, miners will receive less reward for validating transactions. Bitcoin core insists on not expanding its capacity and uses isolation verification + lightning network to solve the congestion problem of the Bitcoin blockchain. This is because on the one hand, small blocks can better ensure the security of the blockchain, and on the other hand, it prevents the centralization of Bitcoin caused by excessive miners' rights.

Bitcoin core believes that Satoshi Nakamoto’s original purpose of creating Bitcoin was to provide people with a decentralized and secure transaction network. Security, irreversibility and independence are its essence. Once a hard fork occurs, the block size expands from 1M to 2M. As time goes by, when 2M cannot meet the demand, the block size continues to expand until finally it is difficult for ordinary private computers to run the entire blockchain, and all computing power is concentrated on miners. In this way, miners can rely on the computing power in their hands to weaken the security model of the blockchain that originally relied on joint maintenance of all nodes to minimize trust among users, leading to the centralization of the blockchain network.

This concern is not unfounded. In fact, a similar "fork" had already occurred at the end of July this year. Before the fork, the price of Bitcoin also fell by about 25%. After the fork, due to the elimination of uncertainty, the price of Bitcoin opened up room for upward growth. It showed an upward trend throughout August, hitting record highs repeatedly.

Another "significant benefit" brought about by the fork at the end of July was the birth of the new currency BCC. BCC copied the Bitcoin blockchain before the fork, and the block size after the fork was expanded to 8M. The currency was subsequently launched on multiple trading platforms. The highest price was nearly 6,000 yuan. The current price is around 2,000 yuan, and the total market value ranks fourth.

It is worth noting how BCC is obtained. The initial BCC was not purchased, but distributed 1:1 according to the original Bitcoin. That is, one Bitcoin is given as one BCC, which is equivalent to "picking it up for free."

It is precisely based on the experience of the fork at the end of July that the currency price rose and new currencies were included. Investors are generally optimistic about the next fork in November. The desire to obtain new currencies for free has also driven the increase in transaction volume and transaction prices.

For Bitcoin, although forks can bring about technical upgrades, they will also lead to the dispersion of computing power to a certain extent, and cause disputes about "who is Bitcoin?" and even weaken the credibility of "a total of 21 million coins."

It is worth noting that this fork may face the risk of "replay attack". According to Guo Dazhi, chief researcher of the Huobi Blockchain Research Center, after the fork, the original Bitcoin holders should get the two coins after the fork. However, due to the imperfection of the initial process of the fork, BTC2 may be given to others when paying BTC1. This can be circumvented through settings. The program was actively modified during the July fork, but this time the program was not modified in order to maintain legitimacy. The less the program is changed, the more likely it is that the name "Bitcoin" will be inherited. Bitcoin holders should be aware of this risk and avoid it.

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Source: Brokerage China (ID: quanshangcn)

Editor of this article: Zhang Tingmin