Bitcoin fell more than 31% in 3 weeks! The aunt escaped, but the "high players" chose to buy the bottom because...

Nakamoto 2025-10-13 19:20 47390人围观 BTC

Click on the blue text above to follow 21jun~ Introduction to everything in economic life: As the price of Bitcoin plummeted by 30%, the interest of professional investors in buying the bottom has increased. However, now they have learned their lesson and

Click on the blue text above to follow 21jun~

Enter everything in economic life

Introduction: As the price of Bitcoin plummeted by 30%, professional investors’ interest in bargain hunting has increased. However, now they have learned their lesson and will not easily use high leverage to buy the bottom.

Source | 21st Century Business Herald (ID: jjbd21)

Reporter丨Chen Zhi reports from Shanghai

As of 19:00 on January 22, the price of Bitcoin was hovering around US$11,724, which means that in just 3 weeks this year, the price of Bitcoin has continued to slide from the year's high of US$17,090, a drop of more than 31%. During this period, the price of Bitcoin once hit a low of US$9,280.3 during the year.

However, not many investors chose to leave the market.

“Now, except for the aunts in the United States, South Korea, and Japan who had previously participated in chasing the rise, they have stopped their losses and left the market. Most professional investors would rather stay. ”The person in charge of a domestic Bitcoin trading platform told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter. The reason is that these professional investors mainly come from the IT and financial fields. On the one hand, their holding costs are generally low. This round of Bitcoin price fluctuations has not touched their holding costs, which is enough to ensure that they continue to stay. ； On the other hand, they have experienced major financial market turmoil such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis before, and have a comprehensive understanding of the risks of significant fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, and will not easily chase the rise or fall.

Reporters have learned from many sources that these investors are even planning to buy Bitcoin at the bottom.

Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and former chief equity strategist of JPMorgan Chase, admitted that he is an activist investor who buys Bitcoin at low prices. In his opinion, Bitcoin has a price fluctuation pattern that is bound to rise sharply after a sharp fall. Therefore, he believes that the price of Bitcoin will at least double its current level by the end of 2018, reaching US$25,000.

According to a senior partner of a global new financial industry fund, although Tom Lee's prediction is quite "exaggerated", the scope of Bitcoin's commercial applications may still be expanding.

“However, even though Bitcoin is increasingly widely used, it still has a long journey to become a mainstream payment, settlement and investment currency. In addition, Bitcoin and other encrypted digital currencies have the characteristics of large price fluctuations and a strong speculative atmosphere. Global financial regulatory authorities still tend to adopt strict regulatory measures, which greatly increases the risk of Bitcoin investment. ”An American investment banker spoke bluntly to a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald. In addition, the continuous rise of more and more encrypted digital currencies has increasingly weakened the investment value and scarcity of Bitcoin, making the future appreciation prospects of Bitcoin even more uncertain.

Exiters and stayers

According to industry insiders, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 30% since the beginning of this year, which is closely related to strong financial supervision.

On the one hand, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Stability Oversight Committee (FSOC) has established a working group on virtual currencies such as Bitcoin to assess their risks to investors and the possible negative impacts of such assets. On the other hand, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU's financial regulator, stated that it is studying whether CFDs based on digital currencies (a type of contract for difference, a complex financial product that tracks the price of an underlying asset) are financial instruments within the scope of its supervision. If ESMA believes that Bitcoin CFDs are financial derivatives, it has the right to ban its violations.

There is other news from the market. In view of the violent volatility of cryptocurrency financial instruments such as Bitcoin, European regulators are studying whether to adopt stricter leverage ratio limits (2:1 or 1:1) for such products, and even ban product marketing.； In addition, ESMA is also considering a complete ban on the issuance of CFDs based on digital currencies.

At the same time, financial regulatory authorities in South Korea, India, China and other countries have also strengthened their supervision of over-the-counter and derivatives transactions of encrypted digital currencies such as Bitcoin. For example, South Korea will impose a high tax rate of 24.2% on encrypted digital currency exchanges to control the scale of transactions in encrypted digital currencies such as Bitcoin, and promote the real-name system for traders to block their back channels for cross-border transfers of assets using Bitcoin. ； Indian banks have suspended trading on the accounts of the top ten local Bitcoin exchanges because they believe these accounts have suspicious transactions. In addition, the Indian tax department is also planning to impose taxes on cryptocurrency investors.

“This also caused many American, Japanese and Korean aunts to stop their losses and leave the market. ”The person in charge of the above-mentioned domestic Bitcoin trading platform analyzed. After all, these aunts who participate in Bitcoin investments are regulars in foreign exchange investments and are extremely sensitive to any policy changes. Once they find that the policy trend is unfavorable to the rise of Bitcoin prices, they will quickly liquidate their Bitcoin positions and leave the market to avoid risks, causing Bitcoin to suffer a large decline this year.

In the view of many professional Bitcoin investors, these aunts cut their losses and left the market, which is just a symptom. The deeper reason for the recent sharp adjustment in Bitcoin prices is that some people have lowered the spot price of Bitcoin through large-scale selling of Bitcoins, thereby making profits from short selling in the futures market.

On December 11 last year, Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) were officially launched for trading. January 17, 2018 is the expiration date of the first batch of Bitcoin futures contracts.

To the surprise of the market, CFTC data showed that as of the week of January 9 (i.e., the week before the Bitcoin futures contract expired), speculative short positions in CBOE Bitcoin futures contracts suddenly gained the upper hand. The speculative net short positions in Bitcoin futures that week increased to 1,907 contracts, during which the price of Bitcoin once fell to around US$9,000.

In addition, most of the trading volume and open interest occurred in early January, indicating that short sellers quietly established a large number of Bitcoin short positions in the futures market in January, waiting for the price to plummet and the contract to expire, and then reap huge profits from short selling. In the end, the price of Bitcoin dropped by more than 30% this year, allowing them to make a lot of money.

Behind this is the high concentration of Bitcoin holdings, which allows individual capital market tycoons holding huge amounts of Bitcoin to easily manipulate prices and make profits.

According to calculations by Aaron Brown, chief risk officer of hedge fund AQR Capital Management, about 1,000 people hold 40% of the world's bitcoins. At current prices, this is equivalent to an average of about $100 million in bitcoins per person.

“More importantly, these 1,000 people are basically the earliest Bitcoin investors, with extremely low holding costs. Once they believe that the previous Bitcoin price approaching US$20,000 has exceeded their profit expectations, they decide to use the Bitcoin futures market to short sell on rallies to lock in huge profits. Their huge selling volume can help them easily achieve this short selling profit goal without worrying about the risk of being shorted. ”Aaron Brown told reporters.

However, this has not “scared away” most professional Bitcoin investors.

Reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald learned from many sources that after the price of Bitcoin fell below US$10,000, many practitioners in the IT and financial fields instead bought Bitcoin at the bottom, thus pushing Bitcoin back above US$11,000.

The reason why they dare to buck the trend and buy Bitcoin at the bottom is, on the one hand, they are optimistic about Bitcoin's hedging investment value and business operation prospects. For example, the U.S. government was forced to "shut down" due to internal disagreements, causing the price of Bitcoin to surge by 8%. In addition, more and more multinational companies began to explore the use of Bitcoin in more specific scenarios for cross-border payment and settlement to improve efficiency, giving Bitcoin more application scenarios and demand.；

On the other hand, their original average holding costs were low. Even if they were bargain hunting at this time, they would have a higher "safety cushion" to resist violent price fluctuations and ensure the safety of their principal.

The person in charge of the above-mentioned domestic Bitcoin trading platform pointed out that although these professional investors are generally optimistic about Bitcoin, their trading strategies have quietly changed with the violent price fluctuations. Compared with their past insistence on long-term value investment, many investors are now choosing to sell high and buy low. The reasons are: First, the rise of more and more digital cryptocurrencies has diverted the investment value and scarcity of Bitcoin, limiting its future growth. ； Second, the government’s strict supervision of encrypted digital currencies has made them realize that many of their investment profit logic may not be realized in the short term.

Highly leveraged investment risks resurface

Reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald have learned from many sources that many aunts in the United States, Japan and South Korea were forced to stop their losses and leave the market during the recent ups and downs of Bitcoin prices. There is also a last resort difficulty - high-leverage investment caused the risk of liquidation and forced liquidation of positions.

“In fact, highly leveraged investments are making a comeback in the Bitcoin space. ”The person in charge of the aforementioned domestic Bitcoin trading platform said bluntly. Whether overseas or domestic, many Bitcoin trading platforms will provide corresponding investment leverage services. Specifically, investors can use their Bitcoin holdings as collateral to obtain funds ranging from 1.5 to 4 times from the trading platform to buy and sell Bitcoin. Once the price of Bitcoin falls and hits the stop-loss line, if investors are unable to add Bitcoin collateral or corresponding funds within the specified time, the trading platform will automatically force liquidate the position to avoid risks.

He calculated an account for reporters. If an aunt with 2 times investment leverage buys Bitcoin at US$15,000, when Bitcoin once fell to around US$9,200 in mid-January, her investment loss would nominally reach about 80%. But in fact, the Bitcoin trading platform is likely to require her to recover the Bitcoin collateral or corresponding funds when Bitcoin drops to $12,000, otherwise the position will be forced to be liquidated. The reason is that the trading platform can only tolerate a maximum loss of 50% for investors and cannot drag down the capital allocation funds to suffer losses.

“As long as the price of Bitcoin drops sharply, there will be a corresponding increase in forced liquidations on trading platforms. ”He spoke bluntly. To some extent, this has contributed to the increasing decline in the price of Bitcoin this year, which in turn has triggered the emergence of more stop-loss orders and forced liquidation orders for highly leveraged investments.

However, as the price of Bitcoin plummeted by 30%, professional investors' interest in bargain hunting increased. However, now they have learned their lesson and will not easily use high leverage to buy the bottom. The reasons are: First, they realize that the regulation of encrypted digital currencies will become stricter in the future, which will continue to increase the volatility of Bitcoin prices, and high-leverage investments will easily get burned.” ；

Second, they are worried that many national financial regulatory authorities have recently taken a number of measures to "control" the scale of Bitcoin derivatives transactions, using taxes to significantly increase the cost of Bitcoin investment, causing Bitcoin's liquidity to decline, and its investment value and scarcity to be more easily replaced by other digital cryptocurrencies, which in turn will limit the room for Bitcoin's future price growth. Such high-leverage investments will instead present a dilemma of diminishing marginal returns and rising risk costs.

“In fact, most financial practitioners involved in Bitcoin investment have personally experienced financial crises such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Therefore, they understand that as uncertainty in the future development of Bitcoin increases, high-leverage investment itself is a major risk. ” The person in charge of the aforementioned domestic Bitcoin trading platform pointed out.

(Editor: Zhang Xing)

21jun

What do you think of the future of Bitcoin?

Do you think the idea of the professional investors in this article buying Bitcoin at the bottom is reliable?

Millions of readers are watching……

“"Beep" and the money is gone! Setting a payment password is useless. Be careful when using these functions on your mobile phone..