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  This is the 2026th original issue of Vernacular Blockchain Author | Mu Mu Produced | Vernacular Blockchain (ID: hellobtc) On February 29, Bitcoin quickly rose above $64,000 after rising for several consecutive days, just one step away from the all-time high of $69,000. However, due to exchange rate changes, if calculated in CNY terms, the price of one Bitcoin has exceeded 450,000 yuan, which has already exceeded a record high. However, that night, while the crypto market was still collectively boiling, traditional financial giant JPMorgan Chase poured cold water on it at an inappropriate time: "Analysts predict that the price of Bitcoin will fall to $42,000 after the halving." Recently, many major events have occurred in the crypto market that have affected the price of Bitcoin, such as the continuous explosion of the Bitcoin ecosystem, the approval of spot ETFs, etc. The next major event that has attracted much attention is the halving more than a month later. As a major landmark event in cyclical theory, the historical Bitcoin halving seems to always cause waves in the market. Since there are many “analyses” before each round of Bitcoin halving that say this halving is very different, is this year’s halving a good thing or a bad thing? Will it bring about a bigger bull market next?  Image source: oklink halving countdown 01 “Is the "halving cycle theory" just a matter of trying to find a sword?  The halving cycle theory uses the historical bull and bear time to prove the correctness of the four-year halving cycle. However, some people try to use a magnifying glass to dig into the details and find various flaws in the cycle theory to try to break the "Bitcoin halving cycle theory" to convince everyone that the cycle theory is unreliable. Bitcoin halving schedule over the years: In January 2009, starting from the genesis block, the system initially defaulted to 50 BTC. In November 2012, the halving height was 210,000. After the halving, the reward was 25 BTC. In July 2016, the halving height was 420,000 and the reward after halving was 12.5 BTC. In May 2020, the halving height was 630,000, and the reward after the halving was 6.25 BTC. In May 2024 (estimated), the halving height is 840,000 and the reward after the halving is 3.125 BTC. Selective recognition, everyone’s butt is crooked. Since they are all predictions, most people may only choose to believe the view that is beneficial to them. After analyzing and analyzing the long speech, people in the encryption community may simply say "it's too long to read" and then reply with one sentence: The analysis makes sense, don't analyze it next time.  Regarding the discussion and analysis of periodic theory, whether it has a positive impact or a negative impact, in the end, it all depends on which one you are more willing to listen to and believe. 02 Halving vs meme Once you have expectations, everything you do feels right. No matter what the news is, it is interpreted as good, and the market reacts accordingly. The famous "Ding Crab Effect" has always existed in certain stock markets. Every time a TV series starring Zheng Shaoqiu is released, investors will be frightened. The Ding Crab effect is actually a certain manifestation of the herd effect. Most people may choose to follow the crowd because they are afraid of going against the mainstream view. Compared with the Ding Crab effect, Bitcoin's "halving effect" seems to have more logical and theoretical support. As a key part of the rules designed by Satoshi Nakamoto for the Bitcoin system, it has been verified over and over again, which undoubtedly continues to bring confidence and expectations to everyone. In the crypto market, you will naturally get used to bizarre things after seeing them a lot. Currently, many pure air memes are wildly popular, not to mention the halving with strong consensus. The market has become accustomed to the expectation of a special event every four years. We would still think that the current halving has already become a meme. As long as it is mentioned that the halving is coming, everyone’s subconscious confidence will instantly return.… In fact, the crypto community and the capital market need such a trigger to ignite FOMO emotions. After each round of halving, they will proactively provide a lot of bull market logic and various analyses. Whatever happens will be interpreted as positive, and even constant self-hypnosis...auto-suggestion. To put it bluntly, even if periodic theory is just a superstitious metaphysics, if more people believe in it, it will easily become a consensus and become a subconscious judgment similar to a "biological clock", forming a trend. Just as people have analyzed the major positive spot ETFs that have been passed for more than half a year, they did not rise but fell instead. The market is often not influenced by rationality. People are more willing to believe in "laws" such as "all the good things are bad". 03 Is Bitcoin halving good or bad? Judging from the market after previous rounds of halving, the crypto bull market is not entirely due to the halving itself, but mainly from different logics such as the explosion of the concept of digital gold, the explosion of blockchain smart contracts, and the implementation of DeFi applications that supported the previous rounds of bull markets. The future itself is full of variables. When Bitcoin halved in previous years, it did not mean that good news would come immediately. On the contrary, in many cases, the market still fell before and after the halving. The Bitcoin halving can only be said to be an important trigger for the big market, but it cannot be regarded as a factor that directly brings about the bull market. Whether Bitcoin can bring about big market trends after the halving, at least these variables need to be taken into consideration:
This is also the reason why JP Morgan analysts predicted at the beginning that the price will plummet to 42,000 after the halving. Simply put, after the halving, the Bitcoin block reward will be directly reduced from 6.25 to 3.125. In the absence of a breakthrough upgrade of the computing power chip, the cost for miners to produce Bitcoin will indeed rise significantly. JP Morgan analysts believe that the increase in production costs will have a negative impact on its price. In fact, in every halving cycle, some people jump out and say that halving will cause a large number of miners to increase their costs and withdraw computing power, which will affect the stability of the Bitcoin network and even bring serious consequences of "sudden death". However, the results of the previous halving cycles have been more "jumping". Although many people, including this J.P. Morgan analyst, may have ignored the fee income brought by miners and the Bitcoin ecosystem, according to on-chain data, the proportion of fee income in miners' income in the past three months has been declining. During the inscription boom, it could be as high as 40%, and now it is generally between 5% and 8%. If the Bitcoin ecosystem cannot continue to be hot and the price of Bitcoin itself cannot continue to rise, then the issue of miners' reduced income is indeed worth thinking about.  Image source: oklink
The bottom-up Bitcoin ecological development model is unexpected by many people, but no matter what, it has given a new pair of wings to the digital gold Bitcoin. People should spare no effort to dig deeper into the value behind it. Perhaps there is a bigger gold mine under the water. A picture posted on social networks by Stacks, the head project of the Bitcoin smart contract layer, shows this expectation very intuitively: 
Spot ETFs only open an entrance, and funds must flow in to be useful. Therefore, the real benefit lies in the "water release" of the U.S. dollar this year, and only then can the value of this super entrance of ETFs be reflected. When expectations brought about by Bitcoin are weak, funds flowing into spot ETFs may also flow away at any time. If the U.S. stock market encounters a waterloo and stages a bottomless "stock market crash", will funds be the first to withdraw from Bitcoin spot ETFs?
From the perspective of another hedging function of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is no longer what it used to be. Also driven by spot ETFs, Bitcoin, which has become a global mainstream asset, will gradually reduce volatility and highlight its "digital gold" hedging properties. You must know that when the economy is in recession and the stock market is down, people usually choose some safe-haven assets such as "gold" and its derivatives for risk hedging. Now that there is an additional option, will funds be diverted to Bitcoin ETFs? Recently, analysis pointed out that the large inflow of funds obtained after the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF seems to be at the expense of the outflow of funds from the gold ETF. In the first week of February, investors redeemed $858 million from gold ETFs, with outflows reaching $3.2 billion as of last week.
There is such a logic: when everyone believes that it is about to happen, the market will often go in the opposite direction, and most people will be harvested by capital. In the past, the stock market had a law of "five poor, six excellent, and seven turnaround". This was a stock market legend in the Hong Kong stock market from the 1980s to the 1990s. That is: the stock market would start to fall every May, and would fall sharply in June, but in July, the stock market would come back to life. Since this "prophecy" or "law" took effect every time, in the mid-to-late 1990s, some people began to "prevent" and "countermeasure" this phenomenon in various ways. After some operations, the result was that this up and down cycle continued to appear earlier and even lost its reference value. As the Bitcoin block reward is halved in each round of the ladder, the halving amount is also significantly reduced, which means that the steps and intensity are getting smaller and smaller. This mechanism will help stabilize the network and prices in the later period, but subsequent halvings may no longer have the potential and substantial influence of the previous halvings. It will become more of a "anniversary", and the next step really depends on the "Bitcoin ecology".  The pace and intensity of Bitcoin block reward halving in each round Although some variables may not look optimistic, and some variables are difficult to distinguish between long and short, we hope that they will tend to the good side in the end, and when the trend is formed, everything will move along it. 04 summary The Bitcoin halving may never have been the direct cause of the bull market, but that everything is ready and all we need is the "east wind" from the east wind. The market has never been a place to judge right from wrong or to be rational. It is obviously not important whether the cyclical theory is a desperate matter, because there is a strong demand and logic behind it. In 2024, although the variables will be mixed, there are many narrative combinations that capital can play, including the superposition of multiple logics such as halving + ETF inflow + Bitcoin ecology + U.S. dollar interest rate cut. Price growth will solve all problems. In this context, cyclical theory may have to be "pretended" again. END Previous article: Is 2024 aiming for a new high? What other “bull market engines” have emerged in Bitcoin?” Recommended reading In terms of ecology, Ethereum ranks first. The second place is not Bitcoin or Solana, but it? With a market value of tens of billions, will the proud OpenSea regret it? Who is touching the “cheese” of Ethereum? The opportunities behind this main narrative in 2024 What do the leading institutions think of the bull market outlook for 2024? Why does Solana, who almost died, make a comeback? 『Statement: This article is the independent opinion of the author and does not represent the position of vernacular blockchain. This content is only for popular science learning and communication among crypto enthusiasts. It does not constitute investment opinions or suggestions. Please treat it rationally, establish correct concepts, and improve risk awareness. The copyright and final interpretation rights of the article belong to Vernacular Blockchain. 』 If you like it, please click "Looking"👇 |
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