Where is Bitcoin going: Digital gold meets the real cycle

Nakamoto 2025-10-24 08:53 40028人围观 BTC

In the autumn of 2025, Bitcoin is no longer the headline news, but it is still an unavoidable variable in the capital market.

The price fluctuated around $110,000, and the market was neither crazy nor panicked. It is like a mirror, reflecting the anxiety and expectations of the global capital market. As the world enters an interest rate cut cycle, geopolitical tensions become tense again, and trade frictions heat up, the fate of Bitcoin seems to be pushed to a new crossroads.

1. The logic of Bitcoin: from fringe to mainstream

Ten years ago, few people were talking about Bitcoin； Today, it has become part of institutional asset allocation. The core logic of Bitcoin is not only scarcity, but also decentralization of property rights and high liquidity.

1. Scarcity

The total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million. This design makes it an algorithmically defined scarce asset that, like gold, cannot be issued infinitely. In an era when fiat currencies, especially U.S. dollar assets, are over-issued and credit currencies continue to expand, scarce assets naturally have value.

2. Decentralization

Bitcoin's private key system allows holders to directly control asset ownership without being attached to a bank or third-party institution. This kind of "self-managed property rights" is a sense of security that the traditional financial system cannot provide - it allows individuals to truly independently own and transfer wealth on a global scale for the first time.

3. High liquidity

Bitcoin has extremely high liquidity and can be bought, sold or transferred almost at any time. It will not be "dropped in your hand" like illiquid assets such as real estate. Whether it is institutional position adjustment or personal payment, the transaction can be completed as long as the Internet is connected. This high liquidity makes Bitcoin more flexible than traditional physical assets and easier to preserve value when capital controls, inflation or currency risks rise.

At the same time, the regulatory environment is gradually becoming clearer. As various countries have successively introduced regulations on crypto assets, the supervision of digital assets such as Bitcoin has gradually become clearer, providing guarantee for compliance development. For example, the GENIUS Act signed in the United States in 2025 establishes a regulatory framework for U.S. dollar-linked stablecoins, which will promote the rapid development of the U.S. stablecoin market. At the same time, traditional finance is also accepting Bitcoin. In January 2024, the U.S. SEC approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, including products from well-known institutions such as BlackRock and ARK Invest, providing institutional investors with compliant investment channels.

Countries have successively formulated regulations on crypto assets, and the launch of financial products such as ETFs has allowed traditional capital to safely intervene. Bitcoin is moving from a "decentralized ideal" to a "compliant asset" and its identity is being reshaped.

2. Hidden worries remain: speculation and policy fluctuations

But there is always a gap between ideal and reality.

Bitcoin is still a highly volatile asset: policy opinions, any macroeconomic changes, such as tariff policies, new macro data, etc., will cause violent price fluctuations. Meanwhile, regulatory risks remain in the shadows. Some countries still restrict transactions, and the details of cryptocurrency regulation in markets such as the United States have not yet been fully clarified.

As for whether Bitcoin can become a real currency, the answer is still no. It fluctuates too much and does not have payment functions ； Its value is unstable and it is difficult to store value stably. Today's Bitcoin is more like a global consensus investment product than a real currency.

3. Short-term outlook

From a technical and financial perspective, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will still fluctuate upward or consolidate within a wide range before the end of 2025.

If it can break through the key range of US$115,000 to US$120,000, market confidence is expected to continue, and the target range may reach US$130,000.； If it falls below the $107,000 support, it may fall back to near $100,000.

4. Long-term perspective

From a longer-term perspective, the future of Bitcoin depends on two things: the evolution of the global financial landscape and institutional acceptance.

If regulations in various countries gradually become clearer and more and more institutions begin to accept Bitcoin, it may truly become “digital gold.””； In turn, if the trust system collapses, policy tightens, or energy problems worsen, Bitcoin may be marginalized again.

ARK Invest has predicted that Bitcoin may reach 2030

Bear case: $300,000, base case: $710,000, bull case: $1.5 million. But no matter how beautiful the numbers are, they are still based on the premise that "faith will not collapse".

The significance of Bitcoin lies not only in its price, but also in its challenge to humanity’s definition of “trust.” It makes us rethink: outside of the monetary system, can there be a "value" supported by code and consensus?

Bitcoin’s destination is not in heaven or hell, but in the middle of history—becoming a new normal, a symbol that constantly reminds mankind: “Trust is the true value of currency. ”