BTC holds firm at 108,000, and ETH faces a life-or-death line of 3,867! Attached is a precise strategy chart

Nakamoto 2025-10-24 14:20 88480人围观 BTC

The current market is consolidating at a high level and the volume is shrinking. Many friends are struggling with "should positions be moved and short positions should be entered?" Teacher Hu Mingzhe uses the three dimensions of market logic, data interpr

The current market is consolidating at a high level and the volume is shrinking. Many friends are struggling with "whether to move positions and whether to enter short positions." Teacher Hu Mingzhe uses the three dimensions of market logic, data interpretation, and practical suggestions from an institutional perspective to bring you the most cutting-edge and intuitive technical illustrations and strategic analysis to help you see the direction clearly and keep profits in the current complex market.

1. Illustrated pie (BTC): weak and volatile, key levels clearly visible

Regardless of holding positions for observation or planning to enter the market, the key points of the index are the most basic "judgment anchor points" and have been organized into clear ranges. Just look at the "breaking/stabilizing" signals against the market.

1. Accurate positioning: The current price is located at 108,266.67 USDT. As our strategy suggests, it is in the core shock zone between the support of 107,400 (107,400) and the pressure of 112,300 (112,300).

2. Qualitative trend: The "BTC strategy" on the right side of the chart clearly states: "The market is obviously weak, and short-term defense is the main focus." This is completely consistent with our recent general policy of "see more and act less". Judging from the moving average trend and trading volume, the market does lack the momentum to break upward.

3. Potential signals: The "AI interpretation" in the chart suggests the potential possibility of "the birth of a dark horse", but this requires confirmation of trading volume. Until the signal is clear, sticking to the "defensive" strategy is the first choice for professional traders.

In the course "Institutional Trading Code", we will explain in depth how to delineate key support and pressure levels in advance like this, and how to identify the authenticity of signals such as "the birth of a dark horse", so that you will no longer be confused by the noise of the market.

2. Illustration of Ethereum (ETH): 3867 has become the watershed between long and short today

Compared with BTC, the trend of ETH is more critical and subtle. The chart below clearly reveals current risks and opportunities.

1. Life and death line: Our strategy clearly points out that 3867 is the most important support level for ETH currently, while 4207 is the watershed between strength and weakness. The current price is 3863.99, which is almost close to the support level, which means that ETH is at a critical point!

2. Clear strategy: The chart strategy gives the most direct instruction: "If you break 3867, you need to avoid risks." This is a very clear and actionable strategy. For investors holding ETH, it is crucial to be able to hold today's closing price at 3867. Once the daily closing price effectively falls below, risk control must be strictly implemented.

3. Pressure level: The upper pressure level is at 4207 and 4450, delineating a clear space for the subsequent rebound.

How to set this unquestionable "key stop loss level"? How to find the best balance between risk control and income? This is the essence of the "Risk Control and Fund Management" module in the advanced course "The Art of Institutional Trading".

3. Highlights of the A-share market

• Shanghai Composite Index: Support 3888-3898 points (3893±5). If it stands firm, the short-term market will be stable.； The pressure is 3911-3921 points (3916±5). Do not blindly chase the rise before breaking through with heavy volume.

• Shenzhen Component Index: Supports 12787-12887 points (12837±50). It is not easy for the sentiment of small and medium-cap stocks to fall sharply if it maintains this range.； The pressure is 12980-13080 points (13030±50). The breakthrough needs to be matched with trading volume to be effective.

Core point of view: A-share volume can continue to shrink, making operations difficult. The style has quietly switched from technology growth to low value (such as financial and dividend sectors). It is recommended to wait patiently for directional opportunities after the "15th Five-Year Plan" is clarified.

4. Understand funds and news: Don’t look at the surface, look at the “actual impact on the market””

Just looking at the index is not enough. Fund trends and policy/industry news can help us determine "what the market is paying attention to and where it may go in the future." We can use popular logic to dismantle key information:

1. Financing data: Don’t panic, the funds have not been completely withdrawn

As of October 22, the total financing balance of the two cities was 2.427967 billion yuan, an increase of 8.294 billion yuan from the previous day (Shanghai Stock Exchange +4.489 billion, Shenzhen Stock Exchange +3.805 billion). The increase in financing balance shows that there are funds on the market actively deploying funds. Although the amount is not large, it can reflect that "the market has not cooled down" and there is no need to panic excessively due to short-term consolidation.

2. Two key messages: Look at the “long-term direction” rather than “chasing the short-term rise.””

• Shenzhen M&A and Reorganization Action Plan (2025-2027): The goal is to increase the cumulative M&A transaction volume to exceed 100 billion in 2027, and to cultivate listed companies with a total market value of over 20 trillion and 20 100-billion-level enterprises. Focus on "enterprises within the jurisdiction of Shenzhen that are in line with the '20+8' industries (advanced manufacturing, digital economy, etc.)". Subsequent mergers and acquisitions may bring opportunities, and are suitable for long-term tracking and not chasing short-term speculation.

• Game version numbers in October: A total of 166 games were released (159 domestically produced + 7 imported), the second highest in the year. Leading companies such as Tencent and Sanqi Interactive Entertainment have new games approved, which shows that industry policies are stable. You can pay attention to game companies with "new game reserves and stable cash flow", but avoid targets with continued losses and no core products.

5. Current pragmatic operating strategies: Don’t chase hot spots, wait for opportunities, and respond to the situation according to the situation

Combined with the market style in October and the current market situation, we will give clear suggestions to friends in different situations. The core is "don't make rash advances and grasp certainty":

1. Positions in growth sectors (technology, new energy): focus on support, don’t hold on to it

This type of sector has experienced large fluctuations in the early stage, and currently has insufficient volume and energy, and is likely to still fluctuate widely in the future. If you have a position in hand, use the "corresponding index support level" as a reference for stop loss (for example, technology stocks look at the support of the Shenzhen Component Index). If it falls below, reduce the position. If it does not fall below, wait patiently. ； For those with short positions, don’t rush to buy the bottom. Wait until the trend is clear after the shock (such as establishing a firm pressure level and increasing the volume) before making a move.

2. Try to make short/light positions by trial and error: focus on the “low traditional sectors”, then go for short positions

The market style in October has shifted from technology to "low-priced sectors" - finance, real estate, steel, coal, transportation, public utilities, tourism, high dividends, etc. Although the third quarter results are average, the stock price is low. In the current market with blurred hot spots, the probability of being rotated is higher. If you want to try it, don’t hold a single position for more than 10%, close when you make a profit, stop losses immediately when you lose, don’t be greedy for long, and don’t hold too many positions.

3. What everyone must do: Pay attention to the draft of the “15th Five-Year Plan” and find the long-term direction

After today’s meeting, be sure to read the contents of the draft! This plan sets the main line for the next 5-10 years and directly affects the long-term opportunities for A shares. For example, the "deep economic concept" that has been hot in the past two days is an early response to "planning may exceed expectations." Subsequently, we will follow the "policy-supported hard technology, people's livelihood shortcomings, and industrial upgrading" to find targets. We will not pursue short-term speculation, but focus on "whether the target really fits the planned direction."

6. Teacher Hu’s thinking: Why do you need a trading system?

The above analysis chart is a direct reflection of the output of our trading system. It solves three core pain points for investors:

1. Are the buying and selling points vague? → The system gives a clear support pressure level.

2. Confused about the trend direction? → The system performs characterization of "weak" or "strong".

3. Lack of risk control? → The system provides a rigid standard of "avoiding risks to break XX".

During periods of market volatility, it is the best time to learn and upgrade your trading system. In order to allow everyone to truly master this method that can be used throughout life, Hu Mingzhe’s November course schedule is as follows, with small classes and limited places:

November "Institutional Trading Code/Art of War" National Course Schedule

• November 1-2 Shenzhen

• November 8-9 Guangzhou

• November 15-16 Shandong

• November 19-20 Shenzhen

• November 21-23 "Institutional Trading Art of War" (Advanced) Shenzhen

• November 28-29 Shenzhen

We adhere to the sharing concept of "altruism and no self". In the course, you will not only hear the theory, but also learn directly applied in practice:

• Key point calculation method

• Techniques for analyzing and judging institutional capital trends

• Scientific position management model

• Efficient risk control methods

Follow the official account immediately and send a private message to reserve a spot to start your systematic trading path!

The content of this article is only objective technical analysis based on charts and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.