Will Bitcoin rebound after a plunge? Three key factors reveal the best time to buy the bottom

Nakamoto 2025-10-24 15:51 35037人围观 BTC

The Bitcoin market has always been known for violent fluctuations. Those seemingly bottomless plunges often breed amazing rebound opportunities. But do you really know how to identify the true bottom in a market panic? Buying the bottom is not gambling, b

The Bitcoin market has always been known for its violent fluctuations. Those seemingly bottomless plunges often breed amazing rebound opportunities. But do you really know how to identify the true bottom in a market panic? Buying the bottom is not gambling, but a decision-making process based on strict logic.

Macroeconomic Benchmark: The Hidden Pusher of Global Liquidity

When the Fed starts cutting interest rates, market liquidity is like a floodgate being opened. The global flood after the epidemic in 2020 caused Bitcoin to soar from US$3,000 to US$64,000. This is no accident. The U.S. dollar index has an astonishing negative correlation with Bitcoin—when the U.S. dollar weakens, funds rush into risky assets.

Currently, the global M2 money supply is stabilizing and recovering, especially the easing policies of non-US economies, which has provided solid support for Bitcoin. But be aware that this impact often lags behind 3-6 months, and smart money always plans ahead. By the time the mainstream media starts reporting on the "Fed pivot," the best window may be halfway over.

The Mathematical Game of Supply and Demand: The Fatal Allure of the Halving Effect

The upper limit design of the total number of Bitcoins of 21 million makes every halving a trigger for market carnival. The halving event completed in April 2024 will trigger a bull market in 1-1.5 years according to historical rules. But this time is different - the entry of institutional investors has completely changed the rules of the game.

Listed companies such as MicroStrategy have incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets, and the adoption of spot ETFs has given traditional funds a compliant entry channel. The buying of these "giant whales" is not short-term speculation, but long-term strategic allocation. While retail investors are panic selling, they are quietly accumulating money. On-chain data shows that when the selling pressure of miners weakens and the activity of large transfers decreases, it often indicates that the market is about to bottom out.

The art of reversing the emotional cycle: when fear reaches its extreme

Market sentiment is the most overlooked indicator of bargain hunting. When the "Bitcoin is dead" argument dominates social media, when leveraged longs are liquidated on a large scale, and when even the most determined holders begin to waver - these are the real bottom signals.

Technically, the oversold area of the RSI indicator below 30 combined with shrinking trading volume often indicates that a reversal is approaching. But remember, emotional recovery takes time, and a V-shaped rebound is rare. Real veterans will gradually add positions after the market has gone through the complete cycle of "panic-doubt-hesitation", instead of trying to accurately copy the lowest point.

There is no simple formula for the Bitcoin market, but by mastering these three factors, you can avoid at least 90% of fatal mistakes. When the next crash comes, will you be the one who panics and sells, or will you be the winner who calmly buys the bottom? The market will always reward investors who see further ahead than others.