[BTC, ETH, SOL - market analysis on October 23, and a brief analysis of tomorrow's CPI]

Nakamoto 2025-10-24 16:32 33357人围观 BTC

Institutional Views and Forecasts Standard Chartered Bank released its short-term and long-term views on Bitcoin: Short-term: Its analysts predict that Bitcoin will "inevitably" briefly fall below the psychologically important $100,000 mark before the end

Institutional Views and Forecasts

Standard Chartered released its short-term and long-term views on Bitcoin:

Short-term: Its analysts predict that Bitcoin will "inevitably" briefly fall below the psychologically important $100,000 mark before the end of this week.

Long-term: They view this potential pullback as a “last buying opportunity” and maintain their price target forecast for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of the year.

Regulatory and Policy Updates

The "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act" (the "Crypto Market Structure Act") was advanced.

Key meeting: Dozens of crypto industry leaders, including Coinbase’s CEO, held nearly three hours of closed-door talks with lawmakers from both parties to discuss the details of the bill.

Current status: The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, but consideration is currently being delayed due to the threat of a potential U.S. government shutdown.

US Democrats warn government shutdown heightens crypto market risks: Maxine Waters, leader of the U.S. Democratic House Financial Services Committee, warned on the 21st day of the government shutdown that the failure of President Trump and congressional Republicans to establish an appropriate regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies will exacerbate market risks. She pointed out that the crypto market flash crash on October 10 caused investors to lose billions of dollars, and called on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to thoroughly investigate related insider trading behaviors.

US SEC and CFTC strive to complete encryption regulatory plan by the end of the year: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are pushing to complete cryptocurrency regulatory goals by the end of the year. The CFTC plans to manage spot crypto transactions and tokenized collateral, while the SEC is advancing Project Crypto’s proposed innovative regulatory exemption system. However, the government shutdown affects the work efficiency of both agencies.

Technology Frontiers and Industry Outlook

Vitalik Buterin (co-founder of Ethereum): Proposed zero-knowledge proof (ZK) and fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) will jointly reshape the future of blockchain. He believes that cryptography is moving from a "cool" era to an "usability" era.

Xiao Feng (Chairman of Wanxiang Blockchain): Pointed out that blockchain has moved from a “grassroots” innovation stage to a stage of standardized development and application explosion.

Corporate and Institutional Trends

Tesla: In its Q3 financial report, it disclosed that changes in the fair value of Bitcoin prices increased the company’s profits by approximately US$80 million.

Standard Chartered Hong Kong: Announced that it will officially launch virtual asset ETF trading services in November to provide investors with more compliance channels.

Other noteworthy events

Russia: The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have agreed to legalize cryptocurrencies in foreign trade.

Risk warning: Crypto exchange HTX (formerly Huobi) was sued by the British Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). In addition, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a single-day net outflow of approximately $101.39 million on October 22.

Lubian mining pool’s stolen address transferred nearly 16,000 BTC: On October 22, a large transfer occurred again from the stolen wallet address of the Lubian mining pool, with a total of 15,959 Bitcoins transferred to 4 addresses, with a total value of approximately US$1.83 billion.

SOL giant sold US$18.11 million: A mysterious whale institution sold 100,000 SOL to Binance in one go, worth US$18.11 million. The institution obtained nearly one million SOL four years ago and just unlocked it in April this year, and now it is starting to take profits frantically.

First, focus on the US CPI data for September (released at 20:30), which is the "wind vane" of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations. The previous value of the annual rate of CPI without seasonally adjustment was 2.90%, and the expected value was 3.10%. After the seasonally adjusted core CPI, the monthly rate and annual rate both remained at 0.30%, and the expected value of 3.10%. If the actual data is higher than expected, it means that inflation is still sticky, the Fed's "higher for longer" hawkish tone may continue, the U.S. dollar index may strengthen, and cryptocurrencies represented by Bitcoin are risky assets, and the probability of short-term pressure increases. ； If the data is lower than expected, the market's bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will heat up, risk asset preferences will pick up, and the currency circle may usher in a liquidity-driven rebound.

Looking at the S&P global PMI data (released at 21:45), the initial values of the manufacturing and service PMIs are expected to be 52 and 53.8 respectively. A PMI above 50 represents economic expansion. If the actual data is strong, it means that the U.S. economy is still resilient, and the Fed's monetary policy has greater "error room" and hawkish expectations are likely to be strengthened. ； If the data weakens and concerns about economic recession rise, the market will bet on the Federal Reserve's early turn, and the risk pricing logic of cryptocurrency will tilt toward "easing expectations."

University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations (released at 22:00) are also key. Consumer confidence reflects economic expectations, and inflation expectations are the "long-term inflation anchor" indicator that the Fed focuses on. If inflation expectations rise, the Fed's determination to fight inflation will be priced in by the market, and the market liquidity environment will easily tighten. ； If confidence weakens and inflation expectations fall, the market's expectations for a policy shift will push up risk asset valuations.

For the cryptocurrency market, the core impact path of these data is: Federal Reserve policy expectations → U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields → risky asset pricing. The current cryptocurrency market is in a stage where "macro data drives expectations, and expectations drive capital flows." Especially BTC, as a "macro-sensitive asset" in the crypto market, will react directly to these data.

Tomorrow night's U.S. economic data is a "macro stress test", the results of which will reshape the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's policy cycle, thereby guiding the short-term direction of the cryptocurrency market. For everyone, understanding the monetary policy logic behind these data is more important than simply being bullish - because this is the underlying code for seizing trend opportunities.

BTC: It is in the recovery period after the sharp decline. The price fluctuates within a narrow range around US$108,000. The intraday trend will first see a rebound, but the overall high point is moving downwards. From a technical point of view, the daily line closed and swallowed up the negative after three consecutive positives, and it is difficult to support a sharp rebound today. At the hourly level, MACD forms a golden cross but the kinetic energy release is weak. The key pressure level above is around US$109,000, and the support level below is US$107,500. If it loses this position, it may further test US$106,500.

ETH: Prices fluctuate around $3,830, a significant correction from last week’s highs. Looking at the daily chart, ETH briefly fell below the $3,800 support after encountering resistance at $4,100 again. It then rebounded from around the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). The current trading range of Ethereum is tightening, with upper resistance around $3960-4100, while lower support focuses on the $3730-3780 area.

In terms of technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) histogram bars are both below neutral levels after failed attempts to rise, indicating that bearish dominance continues. The DIF and DEA of the 4-hour MACD are both below the zero axis and the bars continue to expand. Short-term short-term momentum is building.

The Ethereum Foundation's operation on Tuesday to transfer approximately 160,000 ETH (worth approximately US$650 million) to a new wallet, although the official clarification was that this was only a wallet migration and not a sale, still triggered more than US$700 million in profit-taking in the market and led to US$169 million in long liquidation in the futures market, putting significant pressure on prices.

SOL: Currently in a wide range of shocks, the key upper edge pressure is around $198, and the lower edge support is around $176. The total capital flow on the chain showed a net outflow. The overall net outflow was 1.2069 million SOL. Giant whales continued to flow in, but medium whales, small fish, and shrimps showed a net outflow.

Before the price effectively breaks through this shock range, it is recommended to adopt a range trading strategy of "high altitude, low altitude". If SOL falls back to the $177-181 area, it may provide short-term long opportunities, with the target looking at $187-190.

[The above is only personal content analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Article review and publication may be delayed and the policy is not timely. The specific operation shall be subject to the teacher's real-time policy. The market fluctuates violently, so please be sure to take into account the latest market conditions, reasonably control your positions, and do a good job in risk management. If you want to become a member and participate in following orders, please directly + DingTalk xk299606, if you are the one]