Is BTC breaking 115,000 by no means the end? Trends of mainstream currencies and pitfall avoidance guide after China and the United States break the ice

Nakamoto 2025-10-27 20:49 91118人围观 BTC

1. Don’t just look at the surge! This set of data is the core logic of the rally. The significance of yesterday's consultation in Kuala Lumpur is far more than just "tariff suspension" - combined with the latest data from CME, the probability of the Fede

1. Don't just look at the surge! This set of data is the core logic of the rally. The significance of yesterday's consultation in Kuala Lumpur is far more than just "tariff suspension" - combined with the latest data from CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October has soared to 98.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut in December is as high as 95.5%. This combination of "economic and trade easing + monetary easing" just hits the vitality of the crypto market: BTC's dual attributes explode: As a risk asset, it benefits from the rebound in global risk appetite (the cooling of Sino-US trade friction directly reduces market uncertainty) ； As an anti-inflation target, it can also absorb liquidity spillovers in anticipation of interest rate cuts. ETH's linked and independent market: The breakthrough of $4,200 is not only a follow-up increase, but also derived from the fundamental support of the 18% month-on-month increase in Layer 2 ecological lock-up volume, which was only amplified by macroeconomic favorable conditions. You must know that the current correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has dropped to 0.26, and the volatility is close to that of technology stocks such as NVIDIA, which means that it can not only enjoy the rising dividends of the traditional market, but also gradually get rid of the label of "US stock vassal". 2. Three pits that must be avoided! 80% of retail investors will fall into this "consensus implementation" trap: China and the United States have only reached a preliminary consensus, and it will take at least 2-3 weeks to implement domestic procedures and implement details. Referring to the lesson of BTC plummeting 8% in a single day when the tariff war escalated in April 2025, chasing higher now is equivalent to betting on "100% implementation of the policy." Leverage death zone: The current open interest in the futures market has surged by 37% in 24 hours, but the volatility will intensify before the Fed cuts interest rates - it is recommended that the leverage ratio does not exceed 3 times, and a BTC stop loss line of US$110,000 (corresponding to US$4,000 ETH) must be set. Supervisory secrets: Don’t get carried away by “breaking the ice”! The SEC Encryption Working Group is still advancing the asset classification framework, and the regulatory gap for global stablecoins has not yet been filled. Once new policies emerge, highly valued currencies will collapse first. 3. Prediction of future trends: Look at 120,000 US dollars in the short term, and look at two key nodes in the medium term. Short term (1-2 weeks): Driven by liquidity, BTC is likely to hit US$120,000, but the range of 118,000-120,000 US dollars is suppressed by the historical hold-up in 2021, and there may be a 5%-8% correction after the surge. ETH will fluctuate with BTC, but there will be less resistance before $4,500. Mid-term (1-3 months): Focus on two signals: ① Whether the details of the Sino-US tariff suspension include technology products (affecting the mining machine supply chain) ； ②Whether the U.S. "GENIUS Act" can be implemented (determines the speed of entry of traditional financial institutions). If both are implemented, BTC is expected to stabilize at 130,000, and ETH will see 4,800 ； If it fails, a correction to 100,000/3800 is a high probability. Finally, to be honest, the "linked market" mentioned by BiyaPay is indeed worthy of attention, but don't be superstitious about "the currency will rise when US stocks rise" - now the independent market characteristics of BTC have emerged. Remember: Macroeconomic benefits determine the height of the rise, regulatory implementation determines the sustainability of the rise, and your position management determines whether you can get profits.