China-U.S. tariffs eased, BTC exceeded 115,000, the bull market horn sounded again?

Nakamoto 2025-10-27 22:34 48285人围观 BTC

In just a few days, the market trend reversed again. Just when cryptocurrency investors were still recalling the tragic plunge in early October, the market ushered in a long-awaited collective outbreak. From Bitcoin to Ethereum, from mainstream coins to a

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In just a few days, the market trend reversed again. Just when cryptocurrency investors were still recalling the tragic plunge in early October, the market ushered in a long-awaited collective outbreak. From Bitcoin to Ethereum, from mainstream coins to altcoins, the rapid growth and high financial sentiment have almost made people forget the "tariff cloud" that shrouded the market not long ago. The starting point of this market was the good news from the Sino-US trade negotiations.

1. The market rebounded across the board and capital sentiment recovered rapidly.

Crypto market sentiment has seen a significant recovery as new progress is made in tariff negotiations between China and the United States. From last night to this morning, the market experienced a strong rise.

OKX data shows that as of 9:30 this morning, BTC exceeded 115,000 USDT, reaching a maximum of 115,590 USDT, a 24-hour increase of 3.02%； ETH was once close to 4,200 USDT, reaching a maximum of 4,194.84 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.88% ； SOL returned to the 200 USDT mark, reaching a maximum of 205.09 USDT, an increase of 5.58%.

Not only have mainstream coins returned to strength, but the altcoin market has also rebounded significantly. Among them, ZEC surged 30.03% in 24 hours, reaching a maximum of 368 USDT ； AI concept token VIRTUAL rose 22.25% in 24 hours due to the rebound in track popularity ； Popular protocols PUMP, PENDLE, and ENA saw increases of 17.64%, 10.06%, and 9.22% respectively.

The overall rebound in the market has driven the total market value of crypto assets to rise rapidly. CoinGecko data shows that the current total crypto market value has reached US$3.984 trillion, an increase of 3.5% from yesterday, and is only one step away from the US$4 trillion mark. At the same time, the panic and greed index rose back to 51, returning from the "panic" range to "neutral", indicating that investor confidence is picking up.

In terms of derivatives, Coinglass data shows that the amount of liquidated positions across the entire network in the past 24 hours reached US$421 million, of which short orders accounted for US$345 million. In terms of currencies, BTC liquidated positions at US$169.7 million and ETH liquidated at US$110.7 million, with bulls regaining the initiative.

2. The cloud of tariffs has been suspended, and the market trend has quickly reversed.

The direct catalyst for this round of market sentiment comes from the results of the latest negotiations between China and the United States on tariff issues. From October 25th to 26th, China-U.S. economic and trade leader He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council of China, held talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer in Kuala Lumpur. After the meeting, Chinese representative Li Chenggang said that the two sides had reached preliminary consensus on a number of important economic and trade issues, and would next implement their respective domestic approval procedures.

In the United States, Bessant also confirmed in an interview that the two sides reached a "very substantial framework agreement", laying the foundation for the meeting between the leaders of the two countries. The United States has "no longer considered" imposing 100% tariffs on China. Trade Representative Greer added that the two sides had begun deliberations on the final details of a proposed deal that would "almost be submitted to the leaders of both countries for consideration."

This statement sent an obvious positive signal. Global financial markets have been under a cloud since Trump fired another shot at tariffs earlier this month. Especially the plunge on October 11th plunged the crypto market into extreme panic. Now that the negotiations are getting warmer, it will undoubtedly become the "starting signal" for the market rebound.

As industry insiders say, this may be Trump's typical "raise high, put down gently" strategy - amidst the tug of public opinion and policy, capital has quietly transferred.

3. The focus turns to this week – the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision

The next focus of the market will be in the early morning of Thursday. At 2:00 on October 30, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce a summary of its interest rate resolution and economic expectations. ； Then at 2:30, Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.

From the perspective of macro data, expectations for interest rate cuts have increased significantly. Last Friday, September inflation data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that both overall and core indicators were lower than market expectations:

The unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate was 3%, slightly higher than 2.9% last month, but lower than the expected 3.1%；

Core CPI annual rate was 3%, lower than the previous value and the expected 3.1%；

CPI recorded a monthly rate of 0.3%, and core CPI recorded a monthly rate of 0.2%, both lower than the previous values.

These data provide room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further. CME “FedWatch” data shows:

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is 97.3%；

The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut in December is 95.5%.

The clarification of interest rate expectations, combined with the easing of Sino-US trade, has made the market generally believe that liquidity will further improve, which is also an important background for the strength of crypto asset prices.

4. "Insider" giant whales continue to add positions, and the short-term rhythm is still bullish

Beyond all macro news, what truly controls the short-term market rhythm is often the movement of big funds on the chain. According to HyperBot data, the account known as the “whale with 100% winning rate after the 10·11 crash” continues to be bullish.

Currently, the whale holds 13 times BTC long orders and 5 times ETH long orders with a total floating profit of approximately US$17.54 million, and the profits have not yet been stopped. Three hours ago, an additional 1,868 ETH long positions were even opened. The overall position size is approximately US$339 million: of which BTC long orders are worth approximately US$171 million (opening price is US$110,680), and ETH long orders are worth approximately US$168 million (opening price is US$3929).

The whale's continued increase in positions has released an obvious market signal - at least in the short term, the main funds are still firmly bullish. This means that the market may still have room to rise, especially with the combination of positive interest rates and trade, the market may usher in a sustained rebound.

Conclusion

From the positive progress in negotiations between China and the United States, to the strengthening of expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, to the continued increase of whale funds - a series of signals are pushing the market back to the "risk appetite" track. “The "tariff cloud" has temporarily dissipated, and market sentiment has rekindled. But it is worth noting that this recovery is still based on a delicate balance between macro policies and market expectations. Although the market is strong, the rhythm needs to be steady. After all, in this cycle of extreme fluctuations, what can truly transcend bulls and bears is never emotion, but strategy.

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