This week’s crypto market asset analysis: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL and XRP (Issue 20251027)

Nakamoto 2025-10-27 22:31 26094人围观 BTC

Previous review This is another crazy week. I wonder if craziness has become the norm in our current market. This is not a negative, but there are more opportunities and there are more risks. Trump imposes new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, cutting off

Review

It's been another crazy week. I wonder if craziness has become the norm in our current market. This is not a negative, but there are more opportunities and there are more risks.

Oil prices rose as Trump imposed new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, cutting off Western trade and financing channels and shaking global energy supply expectations.

The move triggered a rapid repricing of inflation risks that rippled across all markets. As yields climb and volatility picks up, traders are dumping growth stocks in favor of defensive stocks.

Regardless of whether Trump changes again in the future, his impact has already been seen, and the market simply cannot bear the risk and can only react violently.

Energy stocks opened stronger, but gains tapered off as overall market sentiment turned cautious. Oil prices soared 6%, stocks fell and the dollar climbed before retreating as Japan intervened to stabilize the yen. Gold fell due to safe-haven demand and began to form a shock zone, with positions turning defensive.

But the cryptocurrency market is performing strongly. While the stock market is falling and yields are rising, Bitcoin is approaching the key mark of $110K and remains strong, with its momentum intact. BTC market movements look like patient buying rather than sudden outbursts. ETF demand and store-of-value functions remain stable.

BTC cycle and M2 liquidity cycle

Beyond that, BTC’s inherent cycles appear to be wavering. Bitcoin has outlasted the duration of its previous two cycles, leading many to question whether the four-year cycle still holds true.

In the past brief history, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle volatility has been rooted in the halving event, in which block rewards and the inflation rate will be halved. Each halving will trigger a severe supply shock and promote the formation of a bull market. However, this cycle is playing out differently. After the most recent halving, Bitcoin experienced five months of sideways trading rather than the explosive post-halving bounce it had seen previously. While the price has since risen significantly, momentum has waned, leading many to question whether the halving has lost its influence.

With the current circulating supply exceeding 95% of Bitcoin's final total supply (21 million), marginal supply reductions may no longer be as significant. Currently, miners are issuing approximately 450 newly mined BTC every day, an amount that can easily be absorbed by a handful of institutional buyers or ETFs. This means that the halving itself may no longer be the main driver of the Bitcoin market cycle.

The liquidity cycle deserves our attention. When we observe the year-on-year changes in global M2 money supply and BTC year by year, a clear pattern emerges. Every major Bitcoin bottom has almost perfectly matched the trough in global M2 liquidity growth.

If we juxtapose the Bitcoin halving with the M2 trough, we see that halvings typically lag the liquidity cycle, suggesting that liquidity expansion, not the halving event, is the real catalyst for Bitcoin's rise. This is not unique to Bitcoin. Gold has behaved the same way for decades, with its price performance closely tied to how quickly global M2 expands or contracts. Regardless, the best approach remains: respond, not predict. Stay data-driven, stay patient, and keep an eye on asset liquidity.

The current trend of the TOP5 tokens by market capitalization and the possibilities for the coming week

BTC

The current price of BTC is US$114,875.

BTC began to rise in the early hours of this week and has now touched the short-term key resistance value of 116,681 US dollars. Currently, BTC fell immediately after hitting this resistance value. It may be a normal retracement, and then it will continue to rise after retracing to 111,446 US dollars.

If BTC can surpass around US$116,680, then the next challenge will be around US$123,223, and the next challenge will be around US$127,500 (see the green path in the figure below).

At this time, looking at the market, a second possibility emerged, that is, BTC has regenerated a new shock zone. If this guess comes true, then BTC will go back and forth in the new shock zone, and then break out of the $116,681 limit. BTC really challenges our patience, doesn’t it?

There is a third possibility here, that is, after the shock, BTC may retrace to around US$109K and then rise again (see the pink path in the figure below).

Yes, the current market is a challenge for us: long-term investors test their patience, mentality and flexibility more, while short-term traders gain more opportunities and take more risks in this chaotic period.

ETH

The current price of ETH is $4158.

ETH has broken out of the purple shock zone, but it immediately turned around after hitting $4,229.

Yes, ETH is the same as BTC. It may just retrace normally, fall to around US$3,971 and then rise again. It will become possible to hit around US$4,500 (see the green path in the figure below).

The second possibility for ETH is that a new shock zone has been generated. If this is the case, then the temporary price range of ETH is between US$4,229 and US$3,762. (see pink path)

BNB

The current price of BNB is 1,155 US dollars.

BNB is currently moving upwards. There will be two resistance values above it, which are around US$1,205 and US$1,253. If these two resistances can be successfully challenged, the third target will be around US$1,400.

So, we're going to give these resistance values some attention.

XRP

The current price of XRP is $2.60, and it has also reached a very critical stumbling block price. If XRP can break out of around $2.67, it will continue to rise.

If XRP falters near $2.67, then it could retrace to $2.46 before rising again.

Of course, don’t forget the support price below $1.9.

SOL

The current price of SOL is $200.

It's still a continuation of last week's odds.

some guesses

1. Gold is currently at $4,043 and may continue to retreat. The nearest support below is $3,980, which may attract more investors.

2. View Powell’s speech on Thursday with caution. If inflation or oil prices rise, market volatility tends to rise.

3. Keep transactions light and focused, and wait for confirmation before making adjustments.

Important factors that could impact the cryptocurrency market this week

Tuesday, October 28th – US Consumer Confidence Index. Traders will be watching for signs that rising oil prices are eroding sentiment. The weak data is likely to fuel talk of slowing economic growth.

Wednesday, October 29 – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventories. This week's top news in energy markets. Volatility in WTI and Brent crude prices is expected after a sharp drop in crude oil in the wake of Trump sanctions confirmed supply constraints.

Thursday, October 30 – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks. The most important event of the week. Any mention of oil or inflation will set the tone for where rates and risk assets will go.

Friday, October 31 – Core PCE price index (month-on-month). The inflation measure the Fed focuses on. The strong data may reshape expectations for November policy.

ALL WEEK – Geopolitical Watch: Russia and the Middle East, any escalation could trigger a new round of volatility in energy and safe-haven assets.

Have a great week and see you next week.

Disclaimer: This article contains personal thoughts and is not investment advice.