Bitcoin becomes the switch of the U.S. Treasury Department: the shadow of the bullish U.S. stock market, the new cycle of the dollar on the chain [U.S. Debt Reset 2]

Nakamoto 2025-10-28 19:29 45847人围观 BTC

Continued from the previous chapter of fiscal logic: Bitcoin ≠ substitutes, but "the fuel of stablecoin popularity. In the framework of the soft reset of the U.S. debt, what the U.S. finance really needs is: stablecoin = Global rolling short-term bond fun

Book continued from the previous chapter

Financial logic: Bitcoin ≠ substitute, but “the fuel for the popularity of stablecoins”

In the framework of a soft reset of the U.S. debt, what the U.S. finances really need is:

Stablecoin = Global rolling short-term debt fund = channel to expand demand for U.S. debt.

Therefore, what it needs is the ecological prosperity of the US dollar (USDT, USDC, RWA-TBills) on the chain. One of the strongest engines of this ecological prosperity is the activity of the currency circle, and the underlying driver of the popularity of the currency circle is the price and narrative of Bitcoin. This means:

Suppressing Bitcoin = also suppressing the use of stablecoins = weakening the demand for short-term debt；

Bitcoin bull market = Stimulate demand for stablecoin settlement and value storage = Strengthen the hegemony of the US dollar chain.

From a financial perspective, Bitcoin has actually become the “marketing arm of U.S. dollar stablecoins.” This is why the tone of U.S. policy has softened significantly since 2024: the SEC approved the Bitcoin spot ETF, and the Ministry of Finance did not prevent the penetration of foreign capital in USDT. ； Platforms such as Coinbase have instead become “compliance exports.”

So if path C (continued from the previous chapter in the book) is established, Bitcoin is the external engine of soft reset.

Its function is not to raise funds, but to create demand for US dollars + increase the turnover rate of stablecoins + increase the global penetration of short-end financing of U.S. debt.

Monetary logic: Bitcoin’s role is not to replace the U.S. dollar, but as a “tropical ecology of the U.S. dollar””

Bitcoin cannot replace the U.S. dollar, but it can help the U.S. dollar "capture global risk appetite funds." From the perspective of currency ecology:

US dollar: systemic anchor, central bank level, sovereign credit；

Stablecoin: the programmable form of the dollar on the chain；

Bitcoin: the “temperature source” that attracts traffic and risk funds into this chain.

The higher and more volatile the price of Bitcoin is, the higher the usage of stablecoins. The higher the demand for stablecoins, the lower the cost of short-term debt financing for the U.S. Treasury. This is a complete currency cycle ecological chain:

Bitcoin market → Stablecoin demand → U.S. debt purchases →

US fiscal financing → Stablecoins continue to expand

Therefore, in terms of monetary logic, Bitcoin is actually the "energy currency" of the U.S. dollar on-chain system, not a substitute, but an amplifier.

Political Logic: Bitcoin’s Strategic Tolerance

Politically, the attitude of the United States can be divided into three forces:

The balance point of these three forces is the state we see today: "strict" supervision on the surface, but "prosperity" is tolerated in essence”； Crack down on DeFi and anonymous coins, but allow the BTC and USDC systems ； Consider the BTC (approximately $12 billion) confiscated by the Department of Justice as a “reserve asset” rather than liquidating it immediately. Because once you sell, it means:

Smashing one's own asset market； Crackdown on Stablecoin Ecosystem ； Offended donors, big donors such as Coinbase, Circle, a16z, etc. Therefore, these BTC are more likely to be regarded as a "shadow fiscal reserve", and liquidity will be slowly released in the future when political needs or when the government bond market is tense, rather than a one-time sell-off.

Game logic: Bitcoin is the fuse for soft reset

From a gaming perspective, the United States has actually “internalized” the crypto world: the U.S. dollar – stablecoins – U.S. debt – Bitcoin constitute a new international financial ecosystem.； If the "soft reset" path is strengthened in the future, that is, negative real interest rate financing is achieved through the US dollar on the global chain, then the higher the Bitcoin price and the more active the market, the easier the soft reset will be. ；

On the other hand, if the market cools down, the demand for stablecoins declines, and the short-term financing cost of U.S. debt rises, then the Treasury Department will tend to let the currency circle "heat up."

Therefore, Bitcoin is in a sense a financial stabilizing valve - once the pressure on the national debt market is too high, the pressure will be indirectly transferred through the financial technology narrative + the prosperity of the currency circle.

Bitcoin is not the enemy of the dollar, but a “bait lever” for the dollar’s reset”

The Treasury Department will not rush to dump and confiscate BTC. Because US$12 billion is only a fraction (a few days’ worth of government bond interest), and the “sell signal” will cause the stablecoin pool to shrink and the demand for US dollars on the chain to decrease, which is not worth the loss.

The real leverage is sentiment and flow. The more BTC rises, the more demand for stablecoins expands, and the more stable U.S. debt financing becomes. ； Therefore, the existence of Bitcoin has become an implicit accelerator of the US dollar soft reset project.

It’s not about shouting slogans, it’s about institutional release + narrative support

Allowing Bitcoin spot ETFs to legalize crypto capital markets； Allowing stablecoin issuers to hold U.S. debt will allow demand for short-term debt to overflow. ； Allow banks and custodians to participate in the RWA/Tokenization pilot to integrate digital assets with the treasury bond market. These are institutional signals of “gentle promotion.”

Narrative support: Politicians, especially the Republican camp, began to include “Crypto Innovation” in their campaign platforms； The media gradually shifts the narrative of crypto assets from “risk” to “innovation”” ；

The U.S. Treasury Department’s report mentioned “the linkage between digital assets and the Treasury market” for the first time, which means that it no longer regards the currency circle as an opponent, but as a potential tool.

Fiscal tacit understanding, almost all stable currency reserves are invested in T-Bills, repurchases and short-term debt funds； This type of funding is zero cost to the Treasury, has no political friction, and is not a domestic debt ； The more “crypto liquidity” flows back into T-Bills, the more fiscal incentives there will be to maintain the popularity of the currency circle.

Like the U.S. stock bull market?

The boom in U.S. stocks is not accidental, but a policy-based asset boom: low interest rates + buybacks + tax incentives + pensions entering the market → jointly build "managed prosperity." The currency circle is now following the same path, but using a new medium: US stocks = the financing reservoir of the US capital market ； Stablecoins = a global financing reservoir for the US treasury.

When stablecoins are backed by T-Bills, and T-Bills are the main financing channel for the Ministry of Finance, it means that the prosperity of the currency circle is actually the prosperity of policy assets related to fiscal interests.

Bitcoin will not continue to be an institutional bull like the U.S. stock market, but it may evolve into a cyclical policy tool.

That is, every time the United States needs "on-chain USD liquidity", Bitcoin will rise with tacit approval or even exploitation. Let’s break down this judgment.

Why can U.S. stocks “institutionally grow” but Bitcoin cannot?

1️⃣ The “long-term bull” of US stocks comes from institutional cash flow and policy collusion

Cash flow anchor: Behind U.S. stocks are corporate profits, taxes, buybacks and dividends；

Policy bottom: Fed liquidity + pensions + corporate repurchases jointly support the bottom；

Wealth effect target: Rise = consumption intention + taxation + political votes；

System encapsulation: supervision, taxation, settlement, and accounting systems are all within the US dollar system.

👉 The reason why U.S. stocks are bullish is that they are one of the core assets of the U.S. dollar credit system.

2️⃣ The essence of Bitcoin is different

There is no cash flow, no taxes or repurchases, and no direct contribution to fiscal revenue.； Too volatile to assume the role of a "long-term savings account" ； The spillover is too strong, the liquidity is globalized, and it is not completely controllable. ； Bitcoin’s rise reflects more risk appetite, hedging demand, and policy signals than productivity or profit accumulation.

👉 So "structurally", Bitcoin is more like a cyclical liquidity release valve rather than an "institutional asset growth curve".

The United States may hope that Bitcoin will "rhythmically grow stronger"”

If the U.S. debt soft reset relies on the stablecoin RWA system as a realistic framework, then Bitcoin’s bull and bear rhythm will be increasingly linked to the fiscal cycle and the U.S. debt supply and demand cycle. Its rise and fall are no longer determined solely by "halving" or "technical narrative", but by the financing rhythm of the US dollar system.

The long-term growth of U.S. stocks comes from the combination of technological innovation and financialization, and the future market logic of Bitcoin is closer to: fiscal cycle + policy window + liquidity release = Bitcoin’s phased bull market.

Implicit game from the perspective of political economy

The difficult problem facing the U.S. government in the future is: how to make the encryption ecosystem "prosperous but not out of control" and let the popularity serve fiscal financing rather than replace U.S. dollar credit. Therefore, Bitcoin’s policy positioning will be more like:

Liquidity ignition device；

Bubble as fiscal relief；

Soft power projection tool (the dollar’s dominant channel in the crypto world).

Therefore, the future is more likely to see: rhythmic and bounded prosperity, a kind of "managed" crypto fluctuation.

One sentence summary: Bitcoin will not become a long-term bull in the US stock market, but it may become a liquidity switch in the hands of the Treasury Department.

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