Will Bitcoin fall below 100,000 US dollars?

Nakamoto 2025-10-28 20:13 23981人围观 BTC

I saw an interesting news today! The content is: Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, asserts that if there are no sudden changes in the current macro bullishness, Bitcoin may "never" return below $100,000... Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, who last week warned that Bitcoin (BTC) would almost inevitably fall below $100,000 over the weekend, turned his pessimistic predictions upside down in just a few days.

Kendrick said the biggest catalyst for the market came from signs of easing in U.S.-China trade negotiations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China is considering extending rare earth export restrictions for one year and resuming large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans in exchange for Washington suspending its 100% tariff on Chinese goods. The news quickly boosted risk appetite, leading Bitcoin to rebound from the previous wave of panic. At the same time, the market is generally betting that this week's FOMC meeting will cut interest rates by another 1%, and funds' appetite for highly volatile assets has also increased simultaneously. Kendrick even said bluntly in an interview: "I think the halving cycle theory is dead, and ETF capital flows are the dominant force. 」

Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of US$149 million yesterday, with net inflows continuing for 3 consecutive days! Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs will attract approximately US$36 billion in total in 2024, and the market estimates that they will still absorb more than US$30 billion in 2025. Although the traditional "halving cycle" has successfully captured long-term trends many times, the rapid amplification of institutional-level capital flows is changing the price-driven framework. This week, five of the "Seven Technology Giants" in the U.S. stock market, as well as encryption concept stocks Strategy and Coinbase, will release financial reports. If the performance is in line with or better than expected, it may continue the momentum of funds chasing prices for risky assets. On the other hand, if technology giants are conservative in their future outlook, the market's enthusiasm for Bitcoin may quickly ebb.

The easing of geopolitics, the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the outflow of gold funds to Bitcoin ETFs, and if the financial reports of technology giants can bring positive surprises, these four forces are enough to support Kendrick's prediction of never falling below 100,000. However, the market never lacks plot reversals. In the coming week, any surprise, whether it is trade negotiations, FOMC conversation records or ETF net inflows, may immediately shake this seemingly indestructible narrative. The current Bitcoin is still relatively volatile due to the news, but the overall trend and environment are still bullish! After reading the article, do you think Bitcoin will fall below 100,000? Drop your thoughts in the comment section!