10.28: On whether the BTC bull market is over

Nakamoto 2025-10-28 22:06 67363人围观 BTC

After Bitcoin experienced a plunge on October 11, the market became very cold, and the market continued to hover around the bottom after previous plunges. Mainstream altcoins have also maintained a bottom-fluctuating trend after falling, which has not brought many opportunities for everyone to participate. Is the bull market over? Regarding the current price and time node situation of Bitcoin, Medal does not have an accurate answer to the peak of the Bitcoin bull market. After all, Medal is not a trader. I can only provide some opinions here for everyone to judge for themselves.

The last bull market in Bitcoin ended when it peaked at US$69,000 on November 10, 2021. On November 11 the next day, there was a sharp drop of nearly US$6,000, with a drop of 8.6%. The bear market process has since begun. This time node happens to be at the end of the second year after the halving. Bitcoin is currently at the end of the second year after the halving, and the two cycles are in the same situation at the time node. In this cycle, the price of BTC plummeted by a maximum of US$20,000 on October 11 this year. The time was exactly one month earlier than the previous cycle, both on the 11th. The probability of coincidence was 3.3%. The reason why the price plummeted one month early this time was because the current round of halving was in April, and the previous round of halving was in May.

We analyze the key trends of the last cycle bull market. The price reached a high of 64854 on April 14, 2021, the second year after the halving, and then experienced a wave of decline and adjustment for more than three months. Then it bottomed out at 29278 on July 20 and began to rebound. It started a second wave of rising to historical highs before peaking, with a retracement depth of 55% in the middle. In this bull market cycle, Bitcoin peaked in the first wave at $109,588 on January 20 this year, and then bottomed out at $74,620 on April 9 this year, starting the second wave of rising to a new historical high. It took nearly three months of adjustment, with a retracement depth of 32% in the middle. As a result, there is a very large similarity in the cycles. As for why there is no reference for the previous halving cycles, it is because the market has not yet been regulated in the early stage, companies and institutions have entered the market less, the dispersion of Bitcoin positions is too weak, the trend lacks regularity, and the reference value is low. Medal believes that any financial asset has cyclical attributes, which is difficult to change.

Analyzing from the perspective of time points, why does Medal believe that Bitcoin is currently in a peak state? This is because the next round of halving will be in April 2028. According to the time point of view, the bear market lasts one year and the bull market starts one year in advance. The bottom time of the bear market will be around the end of 2027, and it will rise one year in advance for the halving market in the second year. From this, it can be judged that Bitcoin is currently in the form and node of a cycle peaking.

At present, many so-called analysts predict that BTC is different from previous cycles and will exit the eternal bull market. The reason is that Bitcoin has joined ETFs in this cycle, making it more convenient to purchase BTC in the largest US market. The number of participating people has exploded, including institutions, listed companies, hedge funds and celebrities. Positions and market demand further increase, resulting in rapid absorption of retracement chips. At the same time, the current economic and world situation is unstable. The increase in credit risk of the US dollar has caused an increase in risk aversion, which has accelerated the purchase of Bitcoin positions. This has led to the view that Bitcoin will continue to be a bull market. These facts are the reasons for the complexity of this round of situations.

But in any case, Medallion believes that a price retracement is unavoidable, but in such a historical environment, Bitcoin will not reach a price of more than 10,000 US dollars again. As for why a price retracement is unavoidable, it is because without low-level chips, no main banker is willing to pull the market. Because there are many addresses buying Bitcoin at high prices, continuing to pull orders means that these non-main positions will make quick profits and have the need to sell. Then the main players will need more funds to take over the selling orders, and then they will have the opportunity to sell. Besides, the current price of Bitcoin is extremely high. One Bitcoin is US$114,000. 10,000 coins will require US$1.14 billion in funds to undertake, and 100,000 coins will require US$11.4 billion in funds. The main players cannot bear it. Therefore, in order to reduce profit risks, the main force pushes the price further down to obtain low-level chips, and then raises the price to achieve stable profits. Based on the above analysis, Medal recommends that everyone needs to be prepared for the risk of Bitcoin peaking and keep bargain hunting chips in order to be able to cope with it.

As for where the lowest point of the bear market will be, based on the in-depth analysis of past retracements, the Medal is predicted to be below $60,000, and the predicted time node is to bottom out from October to December 2026.

The above opinions are judgments and analyzes made after Bitcoin no longer breaks through the historical high of 126,200 US dollars. They only represent personal opinions and do not constitute any investment advice.

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