Bitcoin earnings will accelerate

Nakamoto 2025-10-29 15:04 65073人围观 BTC

I believe that Bitcoin earnings will accelerate over time. In this article, I will explain the logic behind it in detail, and let’s get started. 1. Bitcoin’s returns will not be “diminishing”, and gold is the best proof. Many people believe that as the ma

I believe that Bitcoin's gains will accelerate over time. In this article, I will explain the logic behind it in detail, and let’s get started.

1. Bitcoin’s returns will not be “diminishing”, gold is the best proof

Many people believe that as the market value of Bitcoin expands, its returns will gradually diminish and it will be unable to maintain an annual growth rate of 35%, 40% or even 50% in the future. But just look at gold’s earnings data and this view doesn’t hold up:

In the past year, gold’s return rate reached 59%；
Over the past 2 years, gold has grown at a CAGR of 48%；
In the past three years, the compound annual growth rate of gold has still been 37%.

You know, the current market value of gold has reached US$27-29 trillion, far exceeding Bitcoin's US$2 trillion, but it continues to rise and will continue to rise for a long time in the future. Even though gold has been around for 6,000 years, you still need to understand a key fact: any asset return denominated in fiat currency is false - fiat currency can be created out of thin air, and the supply of currencies such as the US dollar, Canadian dollar, renminbi, and Japanese yen will continue to increase. These new currencies will chase limited assets, and this trend will continue almost forever.

One day, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government will lose control of the U.S. dollar. At that time, no one will want the U.S. dollar, and everyone will turn to hard assets such as Bitcoin and gold. In my opinion, Bitcoin is far superior to gold, and its returns will eventually catch up to or even exceed gold in the future. Although Bitcoin has lagged behind gold in recent months, this is normal and just be patient.

Looking back at the gold price trend over the past few decades, it has continued to rise almost like a "meme stock" - the core reason is that gold is a better savings tool than the US dollar. Assets such as stocks and real estate are subject to counterparty risk, and the only assets without counterparty risk are Bitcoin and gold. Even more amazing is:

Gold has risen more in the past three years than in the previous 6,000 years combined

Again: Over the past 6,000 years, the price of gold has gone from 0 to $1,600 per ounce； In the past three years, the price of gold has soared from US$1,600/ounce to US$4,200/ounce.

When someone says "Bitcoin will have diminishing returns," there is no logic in that statement - because the U.S. dollar itself is a "fake currency." Bitcoin denominated in U.S. dollars is bound to continue to rise. The reason is simple: the supply of U.S. dollars is growing exponentially. Is there any reason why these new U.S. dollars won’t flow into Bitcoin?

2. Current trend of Bitcoin: similar to 2015-2017, explosive growth is yet to come.

I have noticed a trend in the past few years: Since 2022, the price of Bitcoin has risen steadily, and it has not yet seen the explosive growth that "surges from US$1,000 to US$20,000" in the past, nor has it caused people's cognitive subversion. But current trends are very similar to 2015-2017:

In 2015, the price of Bitcoin was around $200, before rising steadily to $1,000 in 2017；
In April 2017, Bitcoin began to explode, rising from US$1,000 to US$17,000, reaching a maximum of US$19,000.

The colored dots in the chart below represent the increase in Bitcoin price relative to the "4-year moving average". It can be seen that in each cycle, the Bitcoin price will reach 4.5 times or even higher than the moving average. This cycle will be the same - even if it doesn't, Bitcoin will continue to rise steadily, or even climb in a stair-step forever.

You know, if Bitcoin wants to plummet 70%-80%, the premise is that there is a "peak of sharp rise before the peak collapse", but even if it plummets, its bottom price is likely to be higher than the current price (about 111,000 US dollars). Many people are panicking now that Bitcoin is at $111,000, but this panic is unnecessary.

3. Historical Mirror: The Currency Devaluation of the Weimar Republic Reveals the Ultimate Value of Hard Assets

The chart below shows the "Weimar Mark-denominated gold price" from 1914 to 1923. This period of history is very revealing: during the process of currency depreciation, asset prices will accelerate, and volatility will not decrease, but will increase.

Many people believe that Bitcoin’s volatility will decrease over time, but this assumption lacks evidence. Bitcoin is a scarce asset with an inelastic supply—if someone wants to buy it, someone else must be convinced to sell. This means that there will inevitably be a "spike" or "revaluation event" in the future, when the fluctuations of the past few months will seem insignificant in the future years.

Let’s look specifically at the devaluation of the Weimar mark: In 1914, 1 ounce of gold was worth only 1 mark； In 1923, 1 ounce of gold skyrocketed to 1 trillion marks. During this period, some people must have sold gold midway, thinking that "it was smart to earn marks", but in the end they found that the mark was worthless - those who sold it at 100 marks would miss out on the subsequent market rise to 1,000 marks. ； Those who sell for 1,000 marks will miss the opportunity of 10,000 marks ； Those who sell at 100,000 marks will miss the increase of 1 million marks. Eventually, the price of gold reached 1 trillion marks per ounce.

More intuitively are the changes in Weimar Mark banknotes:

1920: 10 and 50 Mark banknotes, richly detailed and beautifully printed；
1922: 500, 5,000, 10,000, 1 billion banknotes, with decreasing details；
1923: 50 billion mark banknotes, with only simple numbers and text, and no sense of design - because banknotes are almost worthless, there is no need to invest in printing costs.

What is the difference between these banknotes and the US dollar, Chinese yuan, and Zimbabwean dollar? It's essentially a piece of paper, the only difference is the issuer and the portrait on it. Anyone who holds these fiat currencies will eventually go bankrupt - no matter how many zeros the government adds to the currency, the fiat currency will eventually be worthless compared to the physical assets necessary for survival.

4. Future Outlook: Bitcoin will break through the current channel and the price will rise vertically

Bitcoin is currently in a sideways phase: on the one hand, there is huge buying pressure, on the other hand, there are also many people selling, and the balance of buying and selling results in little price fluctuation. But this won’t last forever – one day, sellers will run out and Bitcoin in every price range will be bought.

At that point, the current price will look like a "negligible fraction" - because there will be far more people wanting to buy Bitcoin than the market can supply, and the only solution is for the price to rise vertically.

Therefore, I completely disagree with the "Bitcoin Diminishing Returns" theory because the dollar itself is worthless. No matter how big the market value of Bitcoin becomes, it will, like gold, maintain an annual growth rate of 50%, 60% or even 70% for a long time to come.

As the price of Bitcoin accelerates, people who can buy 0.1 or 0.01 Bitcoin now will be completely squeezed out of the market in the future and will no longer be able to afford the quantities they can easily obtain now. Therefore, hoarding as much Bitcoin as possible is the most critical choice at the moment.

(over)

The text ends here. With the rapid penetration of the artificial intelligence wave and the continuous implementation of quantitative easing at the national level, ordinary people have fewer and fewer opportunities to counterattack. Workers worry about being laid off at any time, starting a business has a narrow escape, and depositing in banks cannot beat inflation.

The eternal characteristics of water release, the stored-value characteristics of Bitcoin, wars and ideological disputes will bring the world to another track. The rich and middle class will gradually wake up and begin to re-examine their asset allocation, and how to better protect their private property from being infringed.

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